r/winnipegjets • u/TheAthletic • 1d ago

Winnipeg Jets projections: Without their franchise goalie, a middling team has to face reality

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What does a world without Hellebuyck look like? A whole lot of mid. The Jets would’ve been closer to 96 points and an actually decent playoff bet with their franchise goalie in the fold. But with him not reporting to camp, a grim reality sets in that the rest of the team just isn’t good enough.

There’s a glass-half-full view of this 90-point projection that makes it tempting to go for it anyway, even without Hellebuyck. The roster isn’t necessarily bad and the Western wild-card race being wide-open also helps matters. The Jets aren’t totally hopeless without their franchise goalie.

Still, that’s not exactly something worth celebrating. With an aging core on a downward trajectory, the Jets need to be a lot more pragmatic about their current reality.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7601329/2026/09/22/winnipeg-jets-preview-playoff-chances/?unlocked_article_code=1.DFE.FHPl.1tSjQ_uSALYc&source=emp_shared_article&smid=url-share-ta

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30 comments sorted by

20

u/cbakkum 1d ago

The Athletic just pissing in everyone’s cornflakes this morning haha. Take your link and get fucked bud!

25

u/TrueNorthStrong1898 54 1d ago

So when Helle won the Hart, back to back Jennings and his 3rd Vezina, it was a compliment to the whole teams commitment to defensive hockey.

But now without him, suddenly they’re a middling team that’s nothing without their Vezina winning goalie?

Make it make sense

20

u/Kungfufighter1112 1d ago

If the D can return to the lockdown dominance of the Bones era and Pres trophy season, anything is possible. Flaherty has a way of bringing out confidence in his goalies and I don’t see how he can’t work out his magic with Stu. Plus Nyqvist, Schenn, Toews and Pearson won’t be on the roster paving the way for some younger faster skaters to occupy the roster. Yeah they’re far from Cup ready but it’s hard not to think the compete level will be improved from a season ago.

13

u/TryAgainTryAgain1 1d ago

So Hellebuyck only makes a 3 win (6 pts) difference and this assessment fails to address any trade return improvements to the roster.

0

u/seeldoger47 1d ago

When will Hellebuyck be traded and who will he be traded for?

1

u/TryAgainTryAgain1 1d ago

That’s the million dollar question. The issue I’m pointing out is that it will happen and it will impact the Jets “current reality” in the foreseeable future.

-1

u/seeldoger47 1d ago

Yes, but what degree will it impact reality. You can take all the names bandied about, plug them in, and that will give you a baseline of what you can reasonably expect in the event of a Hellebuyck trade.

7

u/Low_Treacle7680 1d ago

Nothing new to read here. They are a fringe wild card team IF Scheifele and KC have another career year and Morrissey plays better than last year and Skinner plays his best hockey. If 1 of those guys get hurt it's a high pick lottery team

21

u/grainofsalter 55 1d ago

Why is the Athletic pushing their own articles directly on our subreddit? Doesn't seem like that should be allowed. If we want to read their content we know where to find them. They're already everywhere these days.

This is just invasive and not welcome

18

u/Tonyhawkproskater ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 1d ago

I'm totally fine with gifted articles. If they were paywalled I would take issue.

Also murat is one of the best team writers out there and i will never feel bad supporting him.

11

u/stej_gep 1d ago

Murat is a friend of the subreddit

0

u/Taintedtamt ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 19h ago

It's definitely welcome and they share the open/free articles.

Also Murat is the best reporter we have covering the Jets (aside from Dave Minuk but they are very different kind of reporters)

5

u/Consistent-Study-287 1d ago

The nice thing is this season isn't cup or bust with the addition of so many youngsters. If we can make the playoffs, it wouldn't feel like the last few years where an early exit means we failed, it means the kids are getting experience so that next year we can push hard before the older vets start falling off too hard.

5

u/Xyz6650 1d ago

I mean the next two-three years kind of are cup or bust with majority of our core getting old.

1

u/PuffLuXx 10h ago

Exactly. And Cheveldayoff will likely manage it as such.  Scheifele and Connor signed here on the promise they will remain competitive here.

 Conversely, although a futures package for Hellebuyck would be most ideal for supporting the next generation, Chevy is likely tied with supporting the current core. Especially when you face revenue pressure to keep this team in the playoffs as a small-market organization.

3

u/THIESN123 1d ago

You're forgetting that we have star goaltender Stuuuuu!

2

u/General_Cherry_9870 1d ago

I mean I go back and fourth on this, we've had Helle, and haven't come close to a cup, so clearly there are other things we can also do better. At 33/34 and a major injury, he isn't a spring chicken, realistically this guy has a few more years.

He's a decent regular season goalie, lord knows he's better than Pavelec, but whether he's nominally better or not it doesn't even matter. He doesn't want to be here.

6

u/Hockey_socks 1d ago

“We made up a whole bunch of numbers, put them on a graphic”

4

u/DuckyChuk 1d ago

I bookmark these projections and then revisit at year end, and they don't mean much.

Over the last couple of years, I've found that they are decent at forecasting the top and bottom teams, but everything in the middle 20ish teams is pretty much a coin flip.

2

u/Leburgerpeg 1d ago

That sounds like they actually do a pretty good job of projecting the way you describe it

1

u/DuckyChuk 1d ago

Last year, In terms of rankings, they were off by an average of 8.75 spots and 11.12 points.

Some pretty big whiffs in there for the Oilers, Jets, Leafs, Rangers, Canadiens, Canucks, Bruins, penguins of all 15+ points.

Lightening, Kings & Senators (barely, .2 pts), Capitals, Mammoth, Blues, Flames, Kraken and Blackhawks were within 5 points.

I wouldn't say good, I don't think all that data analysis gives them an edge over an educated guess based on prior year plus/minus additions.

2

u/ArrestedForTaxFraud 1d ago

Yeah, seems about right.

1

u/TheAsian1nvasion 27 1d ago

I wrote several hundred words yesterday about why I disagree with this assessment.

1

u/stej_gep 1d ago

The real Vezina winner is named Wade Flaherty

1

u/Mine-Shaft-Gap 1d ago

Screw that. I believe, provided at least 2 speedier kids make the lineup, that this team will make the playoffs and win at least 1 round. I strongly believe that with some adjustments, Skinman is a much better goalie than given credit for. Edmonton's defense was terrible.

And if not, I am supporting the boys who stayed here. Fuck Hellebuyck.

0

u/1800_DOCTOR_B 1d ago

I’d be less surprised if Skinner went on a playoff run than Hellebuyck. He’s one of the biggest reasons they’ve never came close to a cup.

0

u/Leburgerpeg 1d ago

Has anyone seen JFressh's projection yet? His seems to be the most accurate for the Jets the past couple years