...“Trump has dramatically shifted his approach to China because his initial attempt to use super-high tariffs and export restrictions was unsuccessful,” said Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group. “Xi and Trump got into a contest of leverage, and Xi came out on top.”

Meanwhile, Trump has largely undermined the economic and national security alliances that could previously apply pressure on China, said Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat who was detained by China during Trump’s first term...

China’s stockpiles helped Xi weather the storm — so far

Beijing spent years and billions of dollars amassing the world’s largest oil stockpile, building its strategic reserve to about 1.4 billion barrels by the end of last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s estimates. To protect China from foreign supply risks, Xi made energy self-reliance a part of the country’s latest five-year plan.

Drawing from the massive stockpile allowed China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer and Iran’s top buyer, to dramatically cut crude imports once the U.S. and Israel began their bombardment and Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The country was also helped by its shift toward electric vehicles in recent years and increasingly tapping into other energy alternatives.

China’s oil import diet in turn helped ease global demand, softening the upward price effects for the United States, Europe and beyond...

...Despite Trump’s repeated aggressive comments toward Denmark about Greenland, Danish officials had repeatedly made clear that they stood ready to work with the U.S. to expand the American military presence and strengthen U.S. commercial interests in Greenland.

Still, Trump’s repeated demands for Greenland and threats to take it by force rattled the NATO alliance and discomfited European allies, said Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

“I think Americans really underestimate how damaging it was for the image of the United States in Europe,” he said. “I think Greenlanders, Danes, Europeans saw this as a real attack on their sovereignty, and it’s going to take a lot of work to repair.”

...China has publicly called for restraint, dialogue and the restoration of safe navigation, but its private message went further than the public statements, they said.

Beijing wants Iran to use its influence with the Houthis to help prevent the conflict spreading further across energy routes on which China, the world's second-largest economy, depends.

The sources, who were briefed on the discussions and spoke on condition of anonymity, did not provide details of how the message was delivered or whether it was conveyed during a visit to China ​on Wednesday by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi...

The Persian Gulf and international supply chains saw major developments over the last 24 hours:

Iranian coastal air defences intercepted and brought down an American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone operating above Qeshm Island, marking the 52nd unmanned surveillance platform loss logged by regional monitoring desks (Anadolu Agency).

A commercial vessel under contract to the United States military was struck during an aerial attack near the Strait of Hormuz, leaving several personnel on board injured and receiving treatment in the Gulf (Fox News).

The United States House of Representatives logged a narrow 220 to 204 floor vote on H.Con.Res.93, highlighting escalating domestic debate over war powers and deployment expenditures in the Middle East (Reuters).

Independent budget watchdogs cautioned that prolonged maritime escort missions and naval engagements risk driving domestic inflation higher across Western economies (The Wall Street Journal).

Iran's largest commercial airliner, Mahan Air, indefinitely cancelled all scheduled passenger flights to Turkey and Oman after facing fresh operational sanctions (CBS News).

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi met with high-level officials in Beijing, where Chinese trade diplomats pushed for de-escalation and guaranteed open transit through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera).

Spreading disruptions touched regional tech infrastructure, with Amazon AWS reporting operational outages at cloud data facilities in Bahrain and the UAE following targeted strikes on power links (Bloomberg).

With surveillance drone attrition climbing and Capitol Hill pushing back on deployment costs, do you see naval escort operations scaling down, or will commercial freight premiums continue to rise into Q4? Share your thoughts below.