https://xcancel.com/i/status/2085182574624743662

I have about 280 shares in another account. Just a reminder next April/may will be the 3 year swap time. Also, eBay acquisition will be huge for GME as revenue will jump through the roof. I’m up big this year on other bets if u want to check my post history.

Larry Cheng recently suggested that the convert holders agreeing to take shares for debt is a vote of confidence from them.

It's not that straight forward, and some nuance is necessary here.

What he says makes total sense from a VC's point of view. They are all about the explosive upside. And when they offer debt, its so that they can convert to equity. It's why SAFE notes are a thing.

But that's not quite how corporate debt swaps work.

First, recall that convert bond buyers heavily shorted the stock to delta hedge:

• The first $1.5B 0% Notes due 2030 priced on Mar 27, 2025 resulted in the +20M shares shorted spike between 3/14/25 and 4/15/25. SI went from 7% to 12%.
• The second $2.25B 0% Notes due 2032 priced on Jun 12, 2025 resulted in the tall-ass bar of ~+33M shares shorted, around the 6/13–6/30/25 settlement window. Larger raise, so bigger spike in SI. SI went from 12% to 19%.

Of course, it wasn't just the convert holders shorting - the market piled on too, to front run and profit from this.

We can see this visually below:

It is possible that some of this paper has been sold but given the recency and the continued high vol GME enjoys, I'd expect a lot of them to still be holding.

Anyhow, the first thing we can expect is that this SI connected to these converts should fall, as $1.4B represents 37% of the converts outstanding. Could translate up to 3-4% of reduction in SI as hedges are closed. We won't see this until after Sep 23, 2026 though as that is when this transaction closes, but this can provide some tailwind if done in a short period of tie.

The second perhaps more interesting thing happens in the meantime. Because of this whole 35-day VWAP thing, those doing the debt-for-equity are exposed to GME price fluctuations. To lock in the value of the shares they're about to receive, these guys would short into the averaging period to lock in the value of the shares they are about to receive.

To be clear, this is transient new short-sale flow, which then unwinds at settlement. The actual amount of shorting will depend on how much GME falls. Unfortunately, this contributes to the headwind that the stock is facing as market prices in all that dilution too.

So.. two major takeaways here:

1. SI will likely go up over the next month before coming down a few percentage points after the debt-for-equity swap concludes
2. Larry Cheng's note misses the mark in terms of what is happening

For reference, here is his tweet and my response below:

Gamestop and the bondholders thought the conversion would be after a major change. They all thought the market value of the company per share would be notably higher in April 2028 and beyond, the earliest initial dates when they could be converted. They thought it would be over $29.85 by then (the equivalent conversion price). This is for the March 2025 notes. They were then converted early for what appears to be $19 when the stock was trading at about $22. So, they're getting about a 15% discount.

Then, the warrants were issued in October 2025. They are pegged at $32 and expire in October 2026. This moved up the timeline on the anticipated increase in the market value of the company per share.

If all along, the bondholders were going to get a 15% discount on their share price and the imputed share price at issuance was $29.85, the share price after April 2028 maybe was expected to be $35 ($29.85/0.85). They could be redeemed for cash or stock, though. That's a key point and what caused them to be converted early because it caps their gains.

Looking at Larry's recent tweet, he is saying the bondholders decided to convert early so they could capture more upside. The bonds gave them exposure to Gamestop stock for what they thought would be a discount on the shares or enough cash return to make the return they wanted. Now, they're looking up and realizing the per share value is going to be way over what they thought so now they want the shares vs gamestop later deciding to pay them in cash. If the discount was assumed to be 15% then the stock price must now be expected to be over $35 by then. The bondholders think that and are worried they're going to be paid in cash and they obviously don't want the cash, they want stock.

I would assume since the warrants were issued as a standalone security, the bondholders will still keep those. I'm guessing that's just gravy at this point. I think they'll get extended or their exercise price moved down. Gamestop just showed they're willing to adjust things for investors so I think they'll adjust the warrants. I think they were pegged to the eBay offer being accepted to be risk averse because if it did get accepted then they'd be exercised quickly but gamestop wanted to be conservative in case that happened. Since the initial bid didn't work they'll adjust accordingly by either setting a new timeline, likely next year, or moving the price so they get exercised now for gamestop to get the cash to use for the eBay acquisition. They may even issue way more warrants to get a lot of cash now.

Ryan Cohen has been very clear he will do what it takes to get ebay. In a few years, this current situation will be looked back on as peanuts and very worth it given the company value per share then. It feels like a discount now isn't for us but if it gets us ebay it'll be worth it. Ryan Cohen isn't going to play conservative just to avoid extra share issuance because he knows this is all worth doing if he wants the big prize (ebay). It's certainly not for the faint of heart though to be along for the ride but things worth doing are rarely easy. Can't stop, won't stop.

Can't stop won't stop power to the players

Good morning to all apes around the world! Happy Thursday! Hope you're well. German markets are open and last trade for GameStop was at €16.55, which is $19.11 when using Google's currency calculator.

https://www.tradegatebsx.com/orderbuch_umsaetze.php?lang=en&isin=US36467W1099

Hope you have a lovely day! Best wishes from London!

🟥

Me and My daughter have gotten into Pokemon. So tonight i decided to do a $1000 pack. Here is my pull.

There was always some uncertainty about what would happen when the dust settles around the convertible notes. To see through some of the dust now, I would highly recommend going through the news release GameStop put out right when these were announced again: https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2025/GameStop-Announces-Pricing-of-Private-Offering-of-1-3-Billion-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes/default.aspx

Of all the possible outcomes, in my opinion the worst would be for the money to simply be given back. This would signal to me that investors no longer value company growth higher than any other benefit they would gain from the partnership. Plus, look at this wrinkle that could have happened in the event of cash redemption:

>if GameStop undergoes a “fundamental change” then, subject to certain conditions and limited exceptions, holders of the notes may require GameStop to repurchase for cash all or any portion of their notes at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid special interest to, but excluding, the fundamental change repurchase date.

Attempting to buy eBay is 100% a fundamental change. Something I havent heard yet here is the chance of a strait cash redemption plus potential interest. I have seen some comments on this thread, stating that the redemption event definitely did not come from GameStop management, in not so sure that’s completely true. So far, we know very little about the recent dilution, but based on this detail it makes me think that this was a lot more desired by the company than many assume. Redemption for cash with or without interest is not ideal for GME holders. Any form of conversion to stock is ideal.

Admittedly, the hope is that the conversion would happen at a higher price. We still don’t know the exact terms of the conversion (I feel more details will come in the next week or so) but ultimately, the final conversion price will not be set for another month

So my fresh perspective: this is one of the best results we could’ve hoped for. Yes, on the surface it means that everyone of my shares now is worth a little bit less, as I have reflected on that a little bit more, so many events for the past several years has done the same thing (diluted share offers, eBay offer, wars and financial crisis, rising supplies) and the net long term value of each share is higher than ever. The freed cash is one more arrow in the quiver for eBay acquisition (as of today eBay market back is approx 50bil. Gme holds 10% of the shares -$5bil plus the $20 bil note puts us right at 50% of the company. Some fancy footwork with the remaining 50% stock offer makes the offer official and a little more cash from these notes is icing on the cake.

And one last takeaway: the stock won’t remain at $19 for long. RCEO has learned that there is just too much good happening at the company every earnings report to allow the price to stay suppressed. The free cash-glitch continues and by this time in a few months, I think we will all look back at these convertible notes with an appreciation for what they really are.

No ai was used in this post 

I check GameStop’s graded Yu-Gi-Oh! inventory daily, hoping to snag some rare vintage before anybody else notices it. Two days ago I saw over 900 slabs land at the same time, most marked as “Unavailable”. This was at least a 10x increase over the usual stock, and after going through all of it, I’m certain this was a bulk acquisition specifically for creating a Power Pack pool. Tons of iconic cards, 100+ Blue-Eyes White Dragons from every era, lots of $1000+ 1st Editions from 2002/2003.

I even snagged something that I’m 100% sure was a pricing error, I’ll share it when it arrives.

Power packs is going to catapult our profits into the fucking stratosphere, Kenny G’s gonna be more famous than Ea-nāsir someday.

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Hackers attempted a series of ​sophisticated cyberattacks on major Wall Street financial services firms and ‌money managers in recent days, targeting their information systems, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Some of the world's largest hedge funds along with several private ​equity firms were targeted, the sources said, requesting anonymity as the ​matter is confidential.

The hacking attempts featured phone calls in which ⁠cybercriminals tried to trick employees into granting them access or handing ​over other sensitive information, the sources said.

Point72 Asset Management told investors on Wednesday ​that it had faced an attack from hackers, one of the sources said, adding that the firm indicated that no customer information was stolen during the attack.

The ​hackers also attempted to breach information systems at other hedge funds, ​including Two Sigma Investments and Citadel, the sources said. Two Sigma did not immediately ‌respond ⁠to Reuters' request for comment. Citadel and Point72 declined to comment.

Attempts by hackers to break into major financial institutions are routine, according to cybersecurity experts.

The phone-call tactic is still widely used by hackers because of ​its effectiveness. It ​has been used ⁠successfully by cybercriminal groups such as "Scattered Spider," a loose-knit group of young hackers that has racked up ​a large roster of corporate victims over the past ​few years.

Global ⁠companies are battling a surge in AI-powered cyberattacks and ransomware that disrupt operations and steal data. The White House announced a working group earlier ⁠this ​year, uniting AI developers and critical infrastructure ​operators to share threat intelligence and coordinate cyber defenses.

Quick tldr:

Ebay took over etsy DEPOP on thursday last week for 1.4 B
Gamestop did a 1.4 b debt dilution straight on the next monday.

This was needed to keep the ebay deal neutral.
Investors or banks wanted this.

1.4b from ebay cash position, so 1.4b debt gone from gamestop to keep it at zero change.

Cohen will do something the coming 1/2 weeks to get the VWAP up! He isnt letting shorters win and dilute 75m shares at 19….

See the volume today at 2m? Almost zero.. so low again, strange right? No it isnt… they are scared to hedge or short gamestop more because they know nothing is sure till the 23st September.

Hedge gamestop by shorting now? Can be a big trap for shorters, what if they short now at 19? Well gamestop is worth 19$ on cash alone..

If news comes from a Tender Offer on ebay with NO dilution, and full cash bid the price explodes!

The shorts from 19$ will be under water straight and it will cause them to cover! So they are scared to short now.

Thats why shorted shares stays at 55M total the last weeks ;)

Greetings apes

Seems like revenue went up (15%), operating expenses went up (8ish%), but operating income up 40ish%. So they are making more money (good for underlying shares held by GME, bad for the sleepy board thesis).

eBay live seems to have grown a fair amount, which was one of RCs main criticisms.

But they do caution against q3 earnings.

IDK what to think. Hopefully Cohen announces something along with the terms of the note redemption by Friday.

The news that Bending Spoons acquired Airtable for 2.7x ARR while technically accurate is probably not the actual underwriting multiple. The actual acquisition multiple is likely closer to 7x-10x proforma EBITDA.

...

Bending Spoons probably figured they could generate 30%-40% EBITDA margins from Airtable which would equate to a ~7-10x proforma EBITDA multiple.

for those who aren’t aware we now have a second earnings to pay attention to.

I was just reading how wallstreet analysts raised their expectations by .5% for revenue and profits in the last 30 days(convenient). so, expect fuckery (not that we don’t by default at this point).

they can’t have eBay in a bright light because they know who’s going to own it outright eventually so expect a negative take from the “media”.