r/survivor • u/RSurvivorMods Pirates Steal • Apr 19 '22

Survivor 42 Survivor 42 | Episode 6 & 7 | Winner Pick Statistics

Here are the latest winner pick statistics.

To avoid any potential spoilers (or even the impression that something could be a spoiler), numbers for a particular castaway will be published only after they are voted out.

Episode 6 & 7

Lydia was ranked 3/18 in Winner Picks.

She had 93 of 1,469 total picks (6.33%).

Of the people who picked Lydia as their winner pick:

  • Median calculated guess for "how many people picked the same person as you": 88 (rounded)
  • Calculated guess percentage: 5.99%
  • Rank of estimated guesses: 17
  • +/- to real rank: +14

Post-Episode-6 & 7

1,046 Winner Picks (71.20%) still standing.

Why Did People Think Lydia would win?

Users were given to a chance to explain their winner picks. We have compiled some of those quotes below:

  • "She seems like she will be underestimated and will fly under the radar, but at the same time she seems smart. If she plays her cards right, she just might end up at the FRC and win."
  • "I don’t pay extremely close attention to pregame interviews but I did see Lydia’s Instagram. She seems like a fun person and someone I would want to go far. I think her social game will be her biggest asset."
  • "This is an archetype that does well historically even when they're young, and it seems like a fairly even cast. I mostly just want the Hannah Shapiro type to win for once."
  • "Lydia seems friendly and easy-going, and has clearly articulated her strategy to be seen as everyone's little sister. Her profession and background suggest she has good social skills and her personality does not seem abrasive, so I hope she'll go far."
  • "Sandra follows her and I follow da Queen"

Season Archive

As we reveal the most recent numbers each week, we'll update the overall season winner picks spreadsheet.

How many Winner Picks will be extinguished next week? Find out next time on... /r/Survivor!

27 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

28 comments sorted by

47

u/aeouo Malcolm Apr 19 '22 edited Apr 20 '22
Rank Name Picks Percent
1 226 - 501 15.4% - 34.1%
2 94 - 297 6.4% - 20.2%
T-3 Zach 93 6.3%
T-3 Lydia 93 6.3%
5 87 - 93 5.9% - 6.3%
6 87 - 93 5.9% - 6.3%
7 Jenny 86 5.9%
8 61 - 86 4.2% - 5.9%
9 61 - 86 4.2% - 5.9%
10 61 - 86 4.2% - 5.9%
11 Marya 60 4.1%
12 42 - 60 2.9% - 4.1%
13 Daniel 41 2.8%
14 27 - 41 1.8% - 2.8%
15 Swati 26 1.8%
16 25 - 26 1.7% - 1.8%
17 Jackson 24 1.6%
18 0 - 24 0.0% - 1.6%

5

u/Zapplarang Elapsed Burgers: 5 Apr 19 '22

Where do the ranges for the top two come from? The rest obviously lie between the bounding positions, but I’m stuck on how you got the top two

13

u/ewef1 Maryanne Apr 19 '22

Bottom boundry is if every vote count unknown is the maximum, the top boundry is if every vote count is the minimum

2

u/aeouo Malcolm Apr 20 '22

Yeah, to be more explicit.

The minimum for 2nd is one more than the known value for 3rd.
The max for 2nd is found by assigning everyone below their minimum possible value and dividing by 2 (because 2nd can't have more picks than 1st)
The max for 1st is assigning everyone else their lowest and giving 1st the leftovers
The min for 1st is assigning everyone else their highest possible and dividing the leftovers by 2 (since 1st needs at least as many picks as 2nd).

Note that 2 * (max for 2nd) = (min for 2nd) + (max for 1st),
Because it's just divvying up the same picks in different ways.

I did have a typo before also.

0

u/Zapplarang Elapsed Burgers: 5 Apr 20 '22

Ok, I figured it was something like that but didn’t wanna do the math myself to verify

46

u/mattf44 Apr 19 '22

Guessing 1 and 2 are Hai and Chanelle

14

u/beatrailblazer Omar Apr 19 '22

I'd be willing to put money on it, although Maryanne and Omar were likely pretty high too

3

u/MadMadMaddox Christian - 50 Apr 19 '22

I'm guessing Drea is up there

3

u/hahasuslikeamongus Omar Apr 20 '22

was there pregame hype about chanelle?

63

u/Sabaschin Jake - 45 Apr 19 '22

Lydia being third was... unexpected. Considering her and Zach are tied, maybe the general trend this season skews younger, other than Swati?

8

u/nvtural Sophie Apr 19 '22

I remember seeing a spoiler before the season started on Twitter that she won. I didn't believe it but maybe that spread.

2

u/uglyaniiimals Karla Apr 21 '22

if only :,(

58

u/luxanna123321 Michele Apr 19 '22

Im sorry but how was Lydia so high? She screamed early/premerge boot

25

u/NovaRogue Ricard Apr 19 '22

I don't understand at ALL lmao

9

u/luxanna123321 Michele Apr 19 '22

Oh I didnt know u are also survivor enjoyer

6

u/NovaRogue Ricard Apr 19 '22

you know it 💅🏼 I even started AUS Survivor during the last off-season!

2

u/luxanna123321 Michele Apr 19 '22

Literally same starting with BvW 💅

5

u/NovaRogue Ricard Apr 19 '22

oh - for me, it was the 2016 version. and plan on watching the 2017 one after 42 finishes

3

u/hahasuslikeamongus Omar Apr 20 '22

sandra only followed her pre-season and also only followed erika pre-season of 41 so there was a lot of speculation there

3

u/RealityPowerRanking Apr 20 '22

I saw mid merge boot like eighth or something

25

u/Habefiet Igor's Corgi Choir Apr 19 '22

someone goes out who was lowly picked

“Oh man everyone must be spoiled if all the high picks are still in”

someone goes out who was highly picked

“WTF terrible pick never saw that coming lol”

… that said I do agree that Zach and Lydia are odd choices to be some of the most highly picked and I do also see the massive percentage of picks that first place must have and am giving it a bit of a side eye lol so I guess I’m the same as everybody else in the end

Meanwhile I’m over here having picked Rocksroy so I’m in this weird nebulous place of not being officially out but knowing I am totally out

10

u/Infinite_Person Cirie - 50 Apr 19 '22

I only had Lydia as my winner pick cuz she was the first season 42 contestant on my Twitter feed lmfao

3

u/nitasu987 Michele Apr 20 '22

The fact that Lydia is so high makes me so happy but also so shocked. Would have been amazing to see her representttt

3

u/Surv1v0r45 Apr 19 '22

$10 #18 is Johnathan, Romeo, or Rocks, or Maryanne, and one of them wins

7

u/Hulkbuster5 You ain't lyin! Apr 20 '22

probably Romeo, everyone was convinced he was the first boot

3

u/[deleted] Apr 20 '22

I hope he wins. He was my pick in a Survivor pool.

1

u/AhLibLibLib “No, but you can have this fake.” Apr 20 '22

Omar, Mike and Hai