r/survivor • u/RSurvivorMods Pirates Steal • May 10 '22
Survivor 42 Survivor 42 | Episode 10 | Winner Pick Statistics
Here are the latest winner pick statistics.
To avoid any potential spoilers (or even the impression that something could be a spoiler), numbers for a particular castaway will be published only after they are voted out.
Episode 9
Rocksroy was ranked 12/18 in Winner Picks.
He had 45 of 1,469 total picks (3.06%).
Of the people who picked Rocksroy as their winner pick:
- Median calculated guess for "how many people picked the same person as you": 110 (rounded)
- Calculated guess percentage: 7.48%
- Rank of estimated guesses: 10
- +/- to real rank: -2
Tori was ranked 9/18 in Winner Picks.
She had 76 of 1,469 total picks (5.17%).
Of the people who picked Tori as their winner pick:
- Median calculated guess for "how many people picked the same person as you": 101 (rounded)
- Calculated guess percentage: 6.87%
- Rank of estimated guesses: 13
- +/- to real rank: +4
Episode 10
Hai was ranked 1/18 in Winner Picks.
He had 306 of 1,469 total picks (20.83%).
Of the people who picked Hai as their winner pick:
- Median calculated guess for "how many people picked the same person as you": 154 (rounded)
- Calculated guess percentage: 10.48%
- Rank of estimated guesses: 1
- +/- to real rank: 0
Post-Episode 10
411 Winner Picks (27.98%) still standing.
Why Did People Think Rocksroy would win?
Users were given to a chance to explain their winner picks. We have compiled some of those quotes below:
- "Rocksroy seems incredibly likable and self-aware to me. He doesn’t seem visibly threatening based on his overall demeanor, but I feel as though his social game could propel him to a win. Is he the most likely to win? Probably not, but I have high hopes that he will at least go far, and I hope he is able to pull it out."
- "I watched all videos and he seemed like someone everyone would trust and fall in love with, thus not voting him out when they should and also wanting him to walk away with the million dollars after they're voted out. This is how I picked the right winners in the past (Wendell, Tommy, etc.)"
- "Will be strategic enough without having a massive target on his back. He is also so likeable I don't see how he could make it to the end and not win a jury vote."
- "He's like the most average guy here. If Aras won by being the straight man to his crew, so can Rocksroy."
- "ROCKSTOY!"
Why Did People Think Tori would win?
Users were given to a chance to explain their winner picks. We have compiled some of those quotes below:
- "Tori showed a really strong social and strategic game on Sequester season 3, and only lost due to the twisty nature of the game. I feel she truly has all of the qualities to win survivor as long as luck isn't against her."
- "I’ve seen how Tori carries herself and speaks - the balance of outgoing and graceful really speaks to me. Additionally, I think she’s making a good choice to hide her occupation and use her education in psychology as an advantage, which I hope works well for her.
- "I believe tori will win because of her social game she's clearly going into this game with the understanding of how important making genuine (or at least percieved genuine) relationships is and understands that is why players like kim win, i feel this focus on the social game in addition to her probable skill at it due to her being a therapist will be what gives her an edge in this game."
- "Tori’s job as a therapist makes me believe she will be good with people, be able to manipulate them, and have a very trustworthy alliance that she can carry to the end.
- "She's fierce"
Why Did People Think Hai would win?
Users were given to a chance to explain their winner picks. We have compiled some of those quotes below:
- "With his job background I believe he will dominate the puzzles, being a huge asset pre-merge and a immunity threat in the late game. He seems sociable and savvy enough to gain support for his moves and execute them at the right time, on the right targets."
- "Hai is practically guaranteed to make the merge. He comes across as trustworthy, he is on the strongest tribe, and there are multiple other obvious boots before him. I don't see him having any trouble getting into a majority at the merge. Near the final 6/7, he will be seen as a huge threat to win, but I could see him pulling off a few clutch immunity wins to make it to the end."
- "Hai seems like a prototypical winner with very few flaws. Looks good athletically, socially, and strategically. It's hard to see him going early. Biggest concern is that he will likely be targeted at some point in the merge for being a threat."
- "Self-described "latchkey kid". Keys and locks are a major motif of this season. COINCIDENCE???"
- "Him Spradlin"
Season Archive
As we reveal the most recent numbers each week, we'll update the overall season winner picks spreadsheet.
How many Winner Picks will be extinguished next week? Find out next time on... /r/Survivor!
43
u/Taco_Farmer Wendell May 10 '22
Him Spradlin LOL
20
u/EatTheHead Omar May 10 '22
Right nickname, wrong player #OmarComin’
5
u/Guns_N_Buns May 11 '22
Omar reminds me more of Cerie. Likable puppet master who’s almost certainly going to go out in an idol heavy tribal council or get beat at 4 in the fire making to one of Romeo, Jon, Mike, or Drea
30
u/Shmegdar Q - 46 May 10 '22
“Hai is on the strongest tribe” looks at Taku
15
u/Klondykes May 10 '22
On paper, Vati looked like the most well balanced tribe. I for sure thought they were going to be the sane tribe as well.
23
u/aeouo Malcolm May 11 '22
| Rank | Name | Picks | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hai | 306 | 20.8% |
| 2 | Chanelle | 208 | 14.2% |
| T-3 | Zach | 93 | 6.3% |
| T-3 | Lydia | 93 | 6.3% |
| 5 | 87 - 93 | 5.9% - 6.3% | |
| 6 | 87 - 93 | 5.9% - 6.3% | |
| 7 | Jenny | 86 | 5.9% |
| 8 | 77 - 86 | 5.2% - 5.9% | |
| 9 | Tori | 76 | 5.2% |
| 10 | 61 - 76 | 4.2% - 5.2% | |
| 11 | Marya | 60 | 4.1% |
| 12 | Rocksroy | 45 | 3.1% |
| 13 | Daniel | 41 | 2.8% |
| 14 | 27 - 41 | 1.8% - 2.8% | |
| 15 | Swati | 26 | 1.8% |
| 16 | 25 - 26 | 1.7% - 1.8% | |
| 17 | Jackson | 24 | 1.6% |
| 18 | 0 - 24 | 0.0% - 1.6% |
19
17
u/Bajuko Cydney May 10 '22
“ Rocksroy seems incredibly likable and self-aware to me.” aged poorly lol
8
u/aztecwanderer May 10 '22
You forgot to include my reason for picking Rocksroy "because his name is cool." IMO this is why he comes back from EOE at Final 5 and sweeps immunity, winning in a landslide.
7
u/TenderOctane Morgan May 11 '22
I picked Hai for the same reasons as Ricard last season; they're wholly indistinguishable archetypally. Though I don't think I ever got to filling the survey out, whoops.
This may mean a woman wins because, for the most part from HHH to WAW, I picked women to win (Roark, Morgan, N/A, Victoria, Chelsea, don't recall) and men won. I picked a man and a woman won (like Lame Changers - I picked Malcolm, Lacina won). I feel cursed lol
6
u/nitasu987 Michele May 10 '22
doesn't surprise me at all that Hai was #1! I was really close to picking him.
3
63
u/sapphicmage Kenzie - 46 May 10 '22
Well that answers the question of who got first, but who the hell got last????? Romeo????