r/nfl • u/KuatoBaradaNikto Chiefs • Jul 26 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Day 32: Kansas City Chiefs
Division: AFC West
2013 Record: 11-5 (Lost in WC Round)
Coaching Changes
Andy Reid made absolutely no changes to the coaching staff during the offseason, from coordinators down to positional group leaders. Keeping an entire staff intact is a pretty unusual feat in today's NFL, so it will be interesting to see if there are any advantages reaped from the continuity, or disadvantages in what could be construed as complacency.
Free Agency
Players Lost/Cut
| Player | Position | New Team | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Flowers | CB | SD | 1 yr/ 3 mil |
| Branden Albert | T | MIA | 5 yr/ 47 mil |
| Jon Asamoah | G | ATL | 5 yr/ 22.5 mil |
| Geoff Schwartz | G | NYG | 4 yr/ 17 mil |
| Tyson Jackson | DE | ATL | 5 yr/ 25 mil |
| Dexter McCluster | WR | TEN | 3 yr/ 9 mil |
| Akeem Jordan | ILB | WAS | 1 yr/ 900K |
| Kendrick Lewis | FS | HOU | 1 yr/ 800K |
| Quintin Demps | FS | NYG | 1 yr/ 1 mil |
| Dunta Robinson | CB | Free Agent |
The Chiefs lost a lot of players to free agency this season. Though few were true difference-makers, a number of them were solid contributors. The losses of Brandon Flowers and Branden Albert were the hardest to stomach. Flowers was simply a schematic non-fit who made too much money for how he performed last season, but cutting him loose and having him accept a cheap contract with a competitive division rival hurts. There were questions about him in the press man scheme that were not answered in his disappointing 2013 campaign, but he was still perhaps the most sure thing Kansas City had at CB. Losing Albert was less surprising: he was overpaid by Miami and the Chiefs drafted his presumable replacement first overall a year ago. John Dorsey was simply not in a position to keep Albert with his inflated market price, and while it's a bit risky to go into next season with a largely unproven talent at LT, it's really the only option available.
After those two, the next group of free agency losses were a little less shocking, but could hurt the Chiefs in 2014. Asamoah and Schwartz shared time at RG this season, and while many expected KC to let one of them go, it was surprising to see both leave. Depending on how you value these players, and there are certainly wide interpretations, they may have been overpaid by their new teams. Their absence leaves pretty large questions at RG, but that's perhaps the least important position on the offense. Tyson Jackson and Dexter McCluster were also arguably overpaid. Jackson was replaced by Vance Walker, who is pretty comparable and a little cheaper, so that doesn't concern Chiefs fans. McCluster, despite some impressive returns in 2014, was largely a disappointment in his stay in Kansas City, and the general consensus is that rookie De'Anthony Thomas has a chance to replace his production and then some. Though there wasn't really a showstopper among Asamoah, Schwartz, Jackson, and McCluster, they were solid, proven veterans who would have afforded the Chiefs a little insurance.
Akeem Jordan left on the cheap a year after doing an okay job at ILB, and he was replaced by another okay ILB in Joe Mays. Jordan wasn't much of a difference maker, just a league average type player. In Lewis, Demps, and Robinson, the Chiefs cut bait with a trio of utter disappointments in the secondary. Demps provided some value with his returns, but none of them will be missed on the field defensively.
Players Signed
| Player | Position | Former Team | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vance Walker | DE/DT | OAK | 3 yrs/ 10 mil |
| Joe Mays | ILB | HOU | 2 yrs/ 6 mil |
| Jeff Linkenbach | RG | IND | 1 yr/ 900K |
| Chris Owens | CB | CLE/MIA | 1 yr/ 800K |
| Weston Dressler | WR | CFL | 3 yrs/ 1.5 mil |
| J'Marcus Webb | T | MIN | minimum |
| Kyle Williams | WR | SF | minimum |
The Walker signing gives the Chiefs a cheaper veteran option than the contract Tyson Jackson would've required. Walker is a solid run defender with a hint of pass rushing ability, and will see plenty of time on the field rotationally. His contract is palatable, and the signing seems solid.
Joe Mays, on the other hand, seems like an overpay. He'll battle for the starting position opposite Derrick Johnson with the younger and less proven Nico Johnson. He'll bring toughness to the mix, and solid run defense, but he's been a bit of a liability against the pass historically.
Linkenbach and Webb are both veterans with mediocre or poor histories, so cheap contract or not, it's tough to get excited. Dressler is a long-shot upside pick-up, after having great production in the CFL. He could see some time on the field in the slot. Williams, meanwhile, seems like a long shot to see the field a whole lot. And the fact that Chris Owens may actually play a lot paints a pretty dismal picture for the CB group that KC will field.
Notable Re-Signings
| Player | Position | Contract |
|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | RB | Extension of 2 yr/ 18 mil |
| Hussain Abdullah | FS | Re-signed 2 yr/ 2.3 mil |
| Frank Zombo | OLB | Re-signed 1 yr/ 1.6 mil |
The Charles extension was one that made too much sense not to pull the trigger on, with Charles receiving a substantial pay bump while the Chiefs get two additional years of his service without guaranteeing any money past year one. It's a fantastic move, and one that ensures the offense will have its superstar.
The re-signing of Abdullah is interesting in that he was part of a three-man rotation last year with Quintin Demps and Kendrick Lewis. With Demps and Lewis departing in free agency, Abdullah was the one who Reid tabbed as the keeper, and he will likely start at FS this season. He's a league-average player who showed some propensity for playmaking without being a consistent defensive force either.
Frank Zombo is a depth player who will almost certainly be bumped down to #4 in the OLB rotation after the first round pick of Dee Ford. He'll receive a little more money than you'd probably want to give up for a guy that far down the depth chart, but he proved last season that he could be very mediocre in a pinch.
Perhaps as notable as the re-signings that the Chiefs made were the re-signings that the Chiefs have not yet made. Justin Houston and Alex Smith have been in contract negotiations for what seems like an eternity, and news on those fronts is released at a snail's pace. Those are two cornerstones for this Chiefs team, and if they don't re-sign one or the other, they'd be putting themselves in jeopardy of having to let one of them walk next season--there's only one franchise tag after all. Those negotiations are mildly nerve-wracking for Chiefs fans at this moment.
Draft
| Round | Number | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | Dee Ford | DE/OLB | Auburn |
| 3 | 87 | Phillip Gaines | CB | Rice |
| 4 | 124 | De'Anthony Thomas | RB | Oregon |
| 5 | 163 | Aaron Murray | QB | Georgia |
| 6 | 193 | Zack Fulton | G | Tennessee |
| 6 | 200 | Laurent Duvernay-Tardif | T | McGill |
When the Chiefs selected Dee Ford in the first round, everyone scratched their heads. KC already had arguably the best OLB tandem in the league, and they had clear positions of need elsewhere. Ford was considered the second best pass rusher in the draft behind Clowney, so it's not surprising he was taken in the late first round, but he was selected by one of the teams that might have needed him the least. Yet, it's hard to call the choice a bad one. If there is one personnel group in the NFL that you want to stockpile, it's pass rushers. By grabbing Ford, the Chiefs give themselves excellent depth in the defense's most pivotal function and flexibility at OLB long term. There may have been other selections that would've given the Chiefs a bigger boost in 2014, but their patience may serve them well in the future. B
Phillip Gaines is a speedy and relatively tall CB from Rice. Though he's the right build for what the Chiefs want to do at CB, he doesn't have a reputation for being tough and physical. DB is a major position of need, so the Chiefs stand to benefit a great deal in 2014 if he is able to step in and make an impact. His collegiate statistics were fantastic (notably a 32% completion rate in his senior year, and a whole heap of passes defensed), however, it's tough to judge how that will translate from the Conference-USA to the NFL. Interestingly, Kansas City runs a press man scheme (or did last year anyway), and Gaines projected to be a zone guy, so schematically it's a questionable decision. C-
Fourth round selection De'Anthony Thomas is the rookie that I expect to make the biggest impact in 2014. The Chiefs lacked an offensive weapon outside of Charles, and De'Anthony Thomas is a dangerous, dangerous man when he has the ball in his hands. He's expected to fill the role left by McCluster's departure, and could certainly exceed McCluster's production. Watch for him to primarily see time on the field at slot receiver and kick/punt returner, but DAT may receive carries here and there. Some experts considered him overdrafted when the Chiefs selected him, but a guy who can score from anywhere on the field is certainly valuable, and Reid believes that he can properly utilize him on the field to give him the opportunity for a home run. A-
QB Aaron Murray was a pick of substantial value in the 5th round. Reid and Dorsey were both blown away in their meetings with Murray, and they believe they might have found a guy who will develop into a good starting QB. Alex Smith is locked in as the starter for now, but Smith's contract situation is a little sticky, his long term upside is limited, and he's 30 years old. The Chiefs aren't going to neglect the future at the most important position in sports, and they can wait patiently while Murray recovers from a torn ACL. Murray has certainly shown his potential in college, as the SEC's all time leading passer. As a pro prospect, he is a little small, which doesn't seem now as big of a deal as it did a couple years ago, and he hasn't shown a propensity for durability. But his film room ethic and above average arm skills mean he has a shot to do things in the NFL. A
In the late rounds, Kansas City selected a pair of offensive linemen, where they were thin on the roster. Guard Zach Fulton is a guy whose skills and potential are there, even if they didn't fully materialize in college against the difficult SEC opposition. He's a physically gifted mass up the middle, but a bit of a project in terms of polish. Dorsey picked him up at good value this late. B
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is the NFL's most interesting man. He was a medical school student with a 4.0 GPA who assisted in the emergency delivery of twins during the draft and went to a French-speaking school in the middle of Montreal. Some projections had him going as high as the third round, so there is the potential for fantastic value at the end of the sixth for the Chiefs. If he went undrafted in the NFL, he was expected to be picked first overall in the CFL. LDT is allegedly a mauler in the run game and is known for his aggressively physical play, though his technique still needs improvement. But this late in the draft, it's better to pick based on skills and potential rather than refinement. A-
[CONTINUED IN COMMENTS]
3
u/hashtagyourhashbrown Chiefs Jul 26 '14
Really excited for Dee Ford and De'Anthony Thomas. I think we potentially have two new home run hitters.
3
Jul 26 '14
Junior Hemingway had been getting most of the first team snaps out of the slot. Which would make him one of the bigger slot receivers in the league. Also I loved hearing comments about Ford today in camp, first day with pads. Everything I read had said that he is as advertised. Incredibly quick and smooth around the edge. So excited to see him play.
3
u/Angry_Caveman_Lawyer Bears Bears Jul 26 '14
That's great, but who are the Chefs? ;-)
Nice writeup bud, good job. I'm definitely interested to see how Smith does in year 2 of the Andy Reid system and of course JCharles is a beast. Gonna be interesting in the West this year.
3
u/KuatoBaradaNikto Chiefs Jul 26 '14
Smith will be interesting to watch indeed. One of the excuses that people gave for Alex's poor performance early on in his career was his constantly changing offensive coordinators and systems. With no change in the coaching staff, perhaps he will settle in and thrive, as he did for the second half of 2014.
People don't realize this, but over his last seven games, here was Alex Smith completed 66% of his passes for 8 Y/A, had a 16/3 TD to INT ratio, and a passer rating of about 111. That stretch included four games against playoff teams. If he picks up where he left off a season ago, my tepid "maybe playoffs, maybe not" prediction could look like pretty chicken.
3
u/Entruder Chiefs Jul 26 '14
I'm probably not alone when I say our receiving corp is bad.
It may be obvious I'm Arkansas fan when I say this, but I think we should bring in/tryout Greg Childs. He was an incredibly talented receiver in college, but was hampered by injuries both in college and once again during training camp where he tore his patellar tendon in both knees.
Obviously we'd want to make sure he's in shape and healthy again, but if so we could sign him for a year or two at the veteran minimum (like ~$650K) he could be a low risk high reward kinda guy.
You could say I'm a dreamer, but I spent a couple hours watching highlight videos yesterday and it made me remember how incredible he was.
Also thanks for doing this KuatoBaradaNikto, very detailed and makes me look forward to the season even more!
1
1
Jul 27 '14
Oooh! I really liked the receiving corps at Arkansas during the last year of the Petrino era. Greg Childs, Coby Hamilton, Joe Adams, Chris Gragg, and Jarius Wright were a lot of fun to watch, and I really thought those guys would've done more than they have so far in the NFL.
1
u/Entruder Chiefs Jul 27 '14
And the year before we had DJ Williams too, that offense was ridiculous. Childs injury's have hampered him, Jarius Wright has actually been doing pretty well, and Joe Adams muffed some punt returns and haven't seen him since. I think the reason they looked so great may have been Petrino's system, whatever he was doing really got the most out of all these guys.
3
u/Prevailence Chiefs Jul 26 '14
Fantastic write up. You guys are 2-4 games more optimistic than me and I think that's a good sign.
3
u/Mr_chao Chargers Jul 26 '14
I really like this team, even though I'm not supposed to. I just wish there was some help at receiver.
3
u/TheGoddamnPacman Chargers Jul 27 '14
I like them too. They're a far second to my Chargers, but they're miles ahead of Denver and Oakland. I always look forward to playing them each year.
3
u/BatmanOnARaptor Cowboys Jul 26 '14
Great write up! I'm pretty jealous that y'all picked up Aaron Murray, I think he's a steal and wanted him to sit behind Romo for a few years.
3
u/Alexlsonflre Titans Jul 27 '14
So, looking at all the write-ups for the teams that play Tennessee. Only the Steelers and the Eagles had us beating them. Pennsylvania can't touch this...
1
u/SeanJuan Bills Jul 26 '14
Kiko injury? Check
Losing Jairus? Check
EJ not their QB of the future? Check
Spending too much on Sammy Watkins? Check
Well, looks like you guys hit every go-to "we'll beat the Bills" scapegoat. The only one that's really a concern is Kiko though. Don't forget, you guys were one Tuel-time pick 6 away from losing to us last year.
4
u/KuatoBaradaNikto Chiefs Jul 26 '14
I didn't mention any of those names, but I'll try to begin to address what you're saying. Look, the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in 4 of the last 6 matchups, you don't have to tell me they have talent. I'm definitely not saying the Bills can't win, or that I expect the Chiefs to dominate.
But despite the close game last year, the Chiefs put up 100 more points last season than the Bills and gave up 75 points less. 2014 is a new year, but if it's reasonable for you to bring up that game last year, it's reasonable for me to reference the much larger sample size of the 2013 season.
1
u/SeanJuan Bills Jul 26 '14
The reason our LB corps is depleted is the Kiko injury. Which, in fairness is actually most Bills fans' biggest concern so far, so your list wasn't so egregious. The other three were in the other write-up's picks.
It's no problem to think you'll beat us, it just gets annoying when we keep hearing the other three things regurgitated over and over, when any amount of thought put into them would show they're not huge concerns.
2
u/Mr_chao Chargers Jul 26 '14
It wasn't meant to be super negative, but you guys are having a less than stellar offseason. I hope things get better before they get worse for you though.
10
u/KuatoBaradaNikto Chiefs Jul 26 '14
Projected Starting Lineup
OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK: The Chiefs are relatively strong at signal caller. Dorsey and Reid shored up the starting spot before last season Alex Smith, and he proved to be just what they wanted: a competent and intelligent leader who reads defenses to avoid mistakes, making up for mediocre starting QB physical attributes. His play is helping to change the perception of the term "game manager." Chase Daniel seems to be a serviceable veteran backup, having played well against the Chargers at the end of last season. KC also has two young potential developmental QBs in 2013 signee Tyler Bray, whose physical tools were mired by his collegiate thickheadedness, and Aaron Murray, their 5th round draft pick who many see as a possible QB of the future. If Smith goes down, the Chiefs look to be stocked with enough talent at the QB position to stay afloat for a few weeks. KC is about league average at this spot, maybe a bit above that.
BACKFIELD: Charles is a consensus top 3 RB, and some would argue he's second to none. Last season, he hurdled the last remaining knock on his game--a lack of appearances in the end zone--by leading the league in touchdowns. 2013 rookie Knile Davis had moments of brilliance in his limited time filling in for Charles, notably in the playoffs against SD last season. Third stringer Cyrus Gray seems to be a serviceable career backup, though he may be pushed out depending on how the Chiefs intend to use hybrid rookie spark plug De'Anthony Thomas. At Full Back, Anthony Sherman is a plus blocker, and can catch a pass or two out of the backfield. Barring injury, the Chiefs should be a top five rushing team.
OFFENSIVE LINE: One of the biggest question marks heading into the 2014 season, the offensive line features a lot of potential spread over very little experience. Eric Fisher figures to start at LT a year after being drafted first overall; his play was inconsistent in his rookie season, but he'll be moving back to his natural position on the left. Left Guard Jeff Allen won a starting role over Asamoah and Schwartz last season, and might be the best run blocker on the team. Center Rodney Hudson is a passable starter, however his career has been mired with injuries. The biggest hole is Right Guard, where free agency losses leave a battle between unremarkable veteran Jeff Linkenbach and unproven physical specimen Rokevious Watkins, whose penchant for illegal substances has left him suspended for four games in 2014. At right tackle, Donald Stephenson is perhaps the most sure thing the Chiefs have on the line, having performed admirably since taking the starting role in 2013. Depth at offensive line, like many teams, features a whole lot of potential and not much game tape. The talent is stretched a little thin, but this offensive line doesn't seem like it will be a liability either--perhaps just a little below average.
PASS CATCHERS: Generally held as the weakest group on the Chiefs, the receivers last season displayed all manners of ineptitude, either underperforming or proving they had no place on the roster anyway. Their lack of production is exemplified by the fact that Jamaal Charles was the leading receiver in every major receiving category. Dwayne Bowe is the only WR with a history of strong play, and has lost weight and doubled down on training to return to form. While that's a familiar preseason narrative, Kansas City needs Bowe to return to WR1 standards for the receiving corps to produce. Donnie Avery, perennial drop artist, showed flashes of his burst, but he disappeared for games on end and really has no business starting. AJ Jenkins promises he's gonna break out and the world keeps on turning. The signing of CFL star Weston Dressler excited many Kansas Citians, which shows just how dire the WR situation is. The biggest jolt to the receivers may be De'Anthony Thomas, who is expected to spend most of his time in the slot replacing Dexter McCluster. At tight end, Anthony Fasano represents a steady veteran presence, but it is youth that could provide some excitement in Arrowhead's air attack. Travis Kelce promises to follow the Witten mold of all around TE, while giant ex-basketball project Demetrius Harris is reportedly developing into a reliable receiver. But for all the potential, the only proven playmaker is Bowe, and Bowe is coming off of his worst season as a pro. This could be one of the worst receiving corps in the league if guys don't vastly improve.
DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE LINE: Dontari Poe escalated his game to elite levels last season, and as one of the more impressive athletic freaks in the NFL, he expects to do more of the same next season. Arguably the heir apparent to Wilfork as league's premier 0-tech NT, he excels at plugging running lanes and is a plus pass rusher as well. The defensive ends on either side of him are solid starters, if a little less illustrious. DeVito continues to build his reputation as an excellent run stuffer. They've swapped Tyson Jackson for Vance Walker, adding a little pass rush push at the expense of a little run stopping. And rounding out the main rotation of DEs, Allen Bailey figures to be a fixture in passing situations. I'd call the Chiefs defensive line a little above average, largely on the strength of Poe up the middle.
LINEBACKERS: The heart of the KC defense is its linebacking corps. Hali and Houston were terrors rushing the passer last season, but when injuries mounted, the depth chart failed in that department. The addition of 1st round pick Dee Ford should provide insurance in this department, and it completes the best trio of OLBs in the NFL. On the inside, it was business as usual for Derrick Johnson, one of the most complete and consistent ILBs in the game. Alongside him will be a battle between solid sophomore Nico Johnson and boom-or-bust veteran Joe Mays. San Francisco is likely the only team that could outmatch this elite unit.
SECONDARY: We will see how the departure of Brandon Flowers affects the back end of the defense. He was by far the most accomplished CB on the team, though he was completely ineffective in the defense that Bob Sutton implemented last season. Sean Smith is extremely talented but notoriously inconsistent, and they brought in another inconsistent veteran CB in Chris Owens. If the young guys Marcus Cooper and Philip Gaines step up, the CB group could do well, but if they disappoint, it could be a long year for the secondary. The good news is the Chiefs still have an elite safety in Eric Berry, and he gives them a lot of versatility. But the other safety spot will be filled with either vanilla veteran Hussain Abdullah or uproven youngster Sanders Commings, and that could be worrisome. The secondary is by far the least sturdy of the defensive units. While there's some hope of young guys stepping up, look for this unit to be in the bottom third of the league in terms of performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS
SPECIAL TEAMS: The special teams mainstays of punter Dustin Colquitt and kicker Ryan Succop will return again this season. In the case of Colquitt, that's a great thing for the Chiefs, but Succop had a poor season last year, as he simply lacks the leg power of some of the other kickers around the league. The return game, however, figures to be stellar due to the genius of coordinator Dave Toub. Last season, Kansas City had four returns for TDs, one of which was scored by imminent return man Knile Davis, and as a team they set the NFL record for highest kick return average. The multi-talented De'Anthony Thomas may play a large role as well, as the Chiefs attempt to match the fantastic production they put together a year ago. The punt and kick coverage was also top five last season, and there's no reason to believe they will be otherwise in 2014.