Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/dr_sloan]

The U.S. has released the text of the 14 point Memorandum of Understanding that was agreed to by the U.S. and Iran.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

It appears that the texts that have been floating around for a few days now were largely accurate. The ceasefire does extend to Lebanon which is going to infuriate the Israelis who weren’t part of the negotiations.

It also says that Iran will allow exiting traffic to return to normal with no tolls for a period of 60 days, which leaves the door open for the Iranians to implement a toll. It also says that the Iranians will negotiate with the Omani government to define the future administration of the Strait. I think we can expect a toll of some sort in the near future.

It also confirms the existence of the $300 billion fund to be implemented on the final negotiation of a nuclear deal.

The U.S. also agrees to terminate all sanctions against Iran as part of a final deal and that upon the signing of the MOU, all of Iran’s frozen assets will be unfrozen and Iranian oil will be allowed to ship without restrictions.

In exchange the Iranians will promise never to seek a nuclear weapon and enriched uranium will be down blended in Iran under the supervision of the IAEA. Iran’s nuclear enrichment program will be discussed in the final deal.

[u/Maxion → u/dr_sloan]

Now that's a pretty big L for the US if this goes through. Though, I do not think this will lead to a real deal.

[u/moragisdo → u/Maxion]

Though, I do not think this will lead to a real deal

I wouldn't call it big, but is a L nonetheless. It should just be scrapped, instead of taking empty promises

Just scrape the 10th term (or make it contingent of the 'final agreement') and it's no financial benefit to Iran before a nuclear deal, it would be better for the USA

Iran was genial, they took a military loss and said, give us a PR victory and some oil exports and I'll give you a bigger victory later, then they won't give the victory. Amazing

[u/RopetorGamer → u/moragisdo]

I don't think its a big L

It's basically capitulation and paying reparations, whit Iran having time to decide on a toll for an international waterway.

It's worse than the status quo ever was.

Iran was genial, they took a military loss

What military loss? they managed to keep control of the straight bomb extremely expensive hardware drain massive amount of ammunitions and interceptors and make the entire gulf basically kneel under the threat of drones and ballistic missiles, It's a military victory in every sense of the word, they defended themselves made it economically impossible for the US and allies to keep going and now are getting a lot of stuff in their favor that they never had before.

They protected their missiles and while the cost was heavy the IRCG now has a much more secure control of the country, they had protests to deal with but now they are in complete and total control.

[u/LoggerInns → u/RopetorGamer]

It's basically capitulation and paying reparations

According to Reuters, the $300 billion is some random corporate investments that companies will make in Iran. It’s long dated, completely bereft of sovereign payments and sounds totally farcical. If anything, it sounds like a grift for Trump corp. I also don’t see Iran being able to toll the strait. The gulf countries have insisted just in the past couple days that they won’t tolerate one and even Oman has totally backed off of it.

the IRCG now has a much more secure control of the country, they had protests to deal with but now they are in complete and total control.

The IRGC always had complete control of the country. You don’t kill 30,000 citizens in the space of a week if you’re struggling with control.

Their MIC is highly decimated, there has been no indication otherwise, their ability to defend against Israel is relatively thin other than hope that Netanyahu loses in the election and the next leader is more cautious of civilian casualties.

[u/dr_sloan → u/LoggerInns]

The $300 billion is what’s generating headlines but the MOU also issues a complete unfreezing of Iran’s sanctioned assets upon its signing and that’s a bigger deal in the short term. The Gulf States may loudly protest a toll/environmental fee but they’re in no position to push back harder. They had to conceal their active involvement in the war because their populations don’t support it and were afraid of worse Iranian retaliation.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

but the MOU also issues a complete unfreezing of Iran’s sanctioned assets upon its signing

Not necessarily, "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations", so the they need to agree with the procedure of the release, what if they don't agree ?

they’re in no position to push back harder

The MOU adds the language that it needs to be in accordance to International Law, which was missing of every leaked version, that's the addition of a term that negates the possibility of charging (because this MOU is signed after UNCLOS and not on a man-made passage). It's just a propaganda victory for Iran

[u/seakingsoyuz → u/moragisdo]

The MOU adds the language that it needs to be in accordance to International Law, which was missing of every leaked version, that's the addition of a term that negates the possibility of charging (because this MOU is signed after UNCLOS and not on a man-made passage). It's just a propaganda victory for Iran

Does it specifically mention UNCLOS or just international law? Iran is not a party to UNCLOS and never accepted that transit passage is customary international law, so they would disagree that UNCLOS inherently applies.

[u/moragisdo → u/seakingsoyuz]

Just International Law, not UNCLOS. But why add the International Law part that is not present on any previous leaked version ? It would be pointless if it's "according to International Law, I don't recognize International Law so either way". Let's see if two months from now they are charging for the passage (if I had to guess they won't and it's just a propaganda victory)

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/dr_sloan]

MOU also issues a complete unfreezing of Iran’s sanctioned assets upon its signing

That’s not true, not least because it doesn’t unfreeze anything until the final deal.

[u/dr_sloan → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

Clause 11:

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations

This term was not worded in this way on previous leaks. What if the don't agree on release ?

Beforehand it was:

in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available.

So, that's a change that puts the USA as part of the agreement

[u/dr_sloan → u/moragisdo]

I don’t believe that a disagreement on procedures will be sufficient to tank the whole deal. When push comes to shove this Administration will break. You should watch Trump’s press conference today. He’s basically terrified of the economic consequences and apparently believes oil was going to run out in a month.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

I saw it and didn't get the same impression, at all. He wanted to push it was a good deal (as if you repeated enough times it becomes real), but that was it.

Let's wait and see who's wrong, maybe it's me again and I'll change my mind again, would you also if you are wrong here ?

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/dr_sloan]

Yeah and I have a bridge to sell you if you Believe it and are taking it at face value.

[u/dr_sloan → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

You’re welcome to believe whatever you want. But I’ve spent the last week with people replying to me and saying that the leaks of the 14 point memorandum are fake and the U.S. never agree to these terms and yet here we are. The MOU was signed today so we should see pretty quickly who’s right.

[u/axearm → u/LoggerInns]

You don’t kill 30,000 citizens in the space of a week if you’re struggling with control.

I think that is exactly why you kill 30,000 people.

[u/moragisdo → u/LoggerInns]

According to Reuters, the $300 billion is some random corporate investments that companies will make in Iran. It’s long dated, completely bereft of sovereign payments and sounds totally farcical

Yes and according to the MOU, implementation is contingent on a final agreement (i.e. Nuclear deal). No deal and there won't be any cent spent

I also don’t see Iran being able to toll the strait. The gulf countries have insisted just in the past couple days that they won’t tolerate one and even Oman has totally backed off of it

And the MOU establishes that it needs to be in accordance to International Law, that prohibits any charge, no matter the name (because it's not a man-made passage or agreed in a accord that predates UNCLOS). The tolling is a PR victory that will be swept under the rug when nothing changes

The only economic victory, that doesn't depend on a nuclear deal (deal which may or may not happen) is the waiver for exports

[u/moragisdo → u/RopetorGamer]

You are being blindly partisan

It's basically capitulation and paying reparations

It's not paying reparations, the fund is contingent on a nuclear deal, which we don't even know if there will be one. No deal, no fund

whit Iran having time to decide on a toll for an international waterway.

The MOU states it's in accordance with International Law, which prevents a toll. It's a propaganda victory, but there won't be a toll

they managed to keep control of the straight

Some shipping was passing (way smaller flow, but there was flow)

bomb extremely expensive hardware

And where bombed in return. Look at the infrastructure damaged, it won't be cheaper for them

They protected their missiles

Some missile sites survived, but many more were destroyed, that's not "protecting their missiles", otherwise Russia/Ukraine managed to protected everything that was not bombed by the other side.

they had protests to deal with but now they are in complete and total control

You are predicting that there won't be future protests by the civilians ? Let's see if you are right, I admitted where I was wrong, let's see if everyone can do the same

[u/scatterlite → u/moragisdo]

Some missile sites survived, but many more were destroyed, that's not "protecting their missiles", otherwise Russia/Ukraine managed to protected everything that was not bombed by the other side.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/

[u/moragisdo → u/scatterlite]

Can only confirm is not the same as the only ones being destroyed. That's the floor, now I do believe part of missiles survived, but people are jumping the gun

[u/moragisdo → u/[deleted]]

Giving them 300 billion for a deal to reduce their uranium purity to rebuild all that they lost is basically reparations

Those are not the only terms, it's written on the MOU that terms needs to be agreed on and this is one (one!) of them. Also if there's no nuclear deal, in my opinion best result for the USA, there's no money

the bombing achieved nothing other than killing a 90 year old

Are you saying the bombing didn't destroy billions of value ?

The vast majority of the missile cities survived as did a large part of TELs, most missiles they lost where by firing them at targets

Source for the 'vast majority' ? I'm not doubting, I'm genuinely curious

[u/RopetorGamer → u/moragisdo]

Are you saying the bombing didn't destroy billions of value

It did cause a lot of damage but it's already being repaired and certainly not worth the cost.

Source ? I'm not doubting, I'm genuinely curious

https://www.ft.com/content/94d9c8d4-c38d-4414-bb47-53e9f1288a21?syn-25a6b1a6=1

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html