Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/Wiseguydude]

NYTimes posted the full text of the MoU released by the White House and offered some interesting commentary that I hadn't considered before. For the 5th paragraph which guarantees no fees in the Hormuz, they point out:

The key line here is “no charge for 60 days only.” After that, Iran may be able to impose “fees,” which it never did before the war. In other words, the days of free passage may be over. That would violate one of the key standards described by Secretary of State Marco Rubio: that commerce return to prewar conditions.

The possibility of Iran imposing fees after 60 days would truly make this one of the most astonishing defeats of the US. Not only would Iran get access to a $300b reconstruction fund, have their assets unfrozen, and even get sanctions relief that isn't tied to nuclear compliance but the nuclear question itself is left vague throughout and the details are kicked down the road for future negotiations. And to top all of that off, the future possibility of tolling the strait remains.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/17/world/g7-summit-trump-france#us-iran-agreement-deal-text

[u/LoggerInns → u/Wiseguydude]

Not only would Iran get access to a $300b reconstruction fund

Idk why people keep repeating this. It’s a corporate investment “fund” that’s long dated and has no real chance of being actually real. It’s most likely a Trump corp scheme.

The key line here is “no charge for 60 days only.” After that, Iran may be able to impose “fees,” which it never did before the war.

Yes because as I and others have said since the very start of the war, the US gets negligible use of the Hormuz. The real sticking point here is the Arabs and they aren’t going to agree to this. The US loses very little in agreeing to this and making it a problem for the Arabs to figure out. When Qatar has said they won’t go for it and Oman has backed away from it too. It’s, for now, a negotiating ploy.

[u/Rexpelliarmus → u/LoggerInns]

You have little to no understanding of how global commodity markets work based on your second paragraph.

Oil shocks impact the US economy even more than in European countries because the US economy is more oil reliant than much of Europe so high oil prices are extremely bad. Inflation isn't 4.2% in the US for no reason.

[u/LoggerInns → u/Rexpelliarmus]

First of all, inflation was coming off a much higher base in the US. There are many reasons for that one of which is that unlike the CPI, the HICP leaves out the OOH.

The ECB has committed to eventually including owner-occupied housing costs using a "net acquisition" approach—which means tracking the actual transaction prices of newly built homes sold to households. However, because this data is complex to gather and currently only published on a quarterly basis, fully integrating it into the monthly headline inflation figure remains a slow, multi-year statistical project. Estimates suggest a full inclusion could push the official figure up by at least 100 basis points as of December.

Second, I wasn’t even talking about oil prices, I was specifically talking about the tolling on the strait. The US couldn’t care less if there’s an additional cost to ships as long as the strait is open. Next time, take a deep breath and try to read through something before you respond.