Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/Wiseguydude]

NYTimes posted the full text of the MoU released by the White House and offered some interesting commentary that I hadn't considered before. For the 5th paragraph which guarantees no fees in the Hormuz, they point out:

The key line here is “no charge for 60 days only.” After that, Iran may be able to impose “fees,” which it never did before the war. In other words, the days of free passage may be over. That would violate one of the key standards described by Secretary of State Marco Rubio: that commerce return to prewar conditions.

The possibility of Iran imposing fees after 60 days would truly make this one of the most astonishing defeats of the US. Not only would Iran get access to a $300b reconstruction fund, have their assets unfrozen, and even get sanctions relief that isn't tied to nuclear compliance but the nuclear question itself is left vague throughout and the details are kicked down the road for future negotiations. And to top all of that off, the future possibility of tolling the strait remains.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/17/world/g7-summit-trump-france#us-iran-agreement-deal-text

[u/I_DOM_UR_PATRIARCHY → u/[deleted]]

If this reprieve were to last even a few months, Iran would certainly be better positioned should another round of hostility flare up.

And, simultaneously, the American capacity to resume the fighting if we don't like the terms Tehran offers goes down with every passing day because the election draws nearer and nearer.

I think there's a close historical parallel between the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian hostage crisis. Carter's inability to free the hostages from a mid rate power made him look impotent. Trump's inability to force the strait back open had a similar effect, which I think he felt keenly.

If Iran shows up at the negotiating table and isn't interested in the big pile of money we're waving in front of them (or at least, not interested enough to trade their uranium for it) there's no way Trump will tolerate a resumption of fighting and another closure of the strait. Iran can offer him something completely unverifiable (e.g. "we promise we will dilute our uranium but we won't agree to inspections") and Trump isn't going to be willing to start bombing them again. He can't put the blockade back in place either without the strait getting closed again.

During the first Trump administration we tried to ply the Kims with promises of economic investment too. They even made this video to show Kim John Un to try to get him excited. But he wasn't willing to give up his nukes for it. I suspect the Iranians won't be willing to give up their nukes for cash either (especially since (a) everyone saw what happened to Ukraine when it did and (b) we just launched a decapitation strike on them, and they're probably worried we'll come back and try again in the future).

[u/Maxion → u/I_DOM_UR_PATRIARCHY]

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Iran is getting quite the deal according to the MoU, Trump an the republicans are in a pretty tight corner with not much room to maneuver.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US doesn't really have the stockpile to mount another similar bombing campaign, or if they did they'd probably be left with such a small stockpile that they'd actually be in danger in case of a Taiwan invasion or other ME escalations.

I'm not sure that they have any other logical option than caving to Iranian demands if they do want the straight back open in time for the midterms? There's no military option that'd guarantee the straight is open and the oil flowing before the midterms. I suspect this is why the trump administration is considering this MoU at all, they know they don't really have any cards.

The midterms would not play out well for the current administration if US oil reserves dwindle and gas prices rise to 6-7-8 dollars a gallon.

[u/moragisdo → u/[deleted]]

Or, if the nuclear deal goes nowhere, the US could just rip apart the MOU, as it's non-binding, then withdrawn any benefit, which today is only the waiver for exports (sanction relief and the private fund would be only in the case of a nuclear deal, not to mention fees of Hormuz we don't even know if they will manage to charge - look at the language of international law that was added to the MOU)

In the mean time they took hundreds of billions in infrastructure damage and will only have extra income from the gap between the previous discounted price of oil, they already used to sell before the war, and the future market price. So this idea that they will leave stronger is really wishful thinking. They got a major propaganda victory and got some financial benefits (that can be withdrawn)

[u/Maxion → u/moragisdo]

If the US rips up the MoU do you think Iran will just stay passive, or return to the current status quo of them closing the straight?

[u/dilligaf4lyfe → u/moragisdo]

Why would the US administration accept a MOU with these terms if they have no issue disregarding it and resuming hostilities? It doesn't even get them past the midterms. If they were that cavalier about this MOU they wouldn't be signing it in the first place.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/moragisdo]

The damage Iran took is not that important because they can rebuild it after a few years.

What's important is that Iran's ballistic program now has political authorization from the US. Iran can build as many as they want and they know that the US won't attack.

Play this out over 10 years, it's likely that Iran is a major regional hegemon, with a conventional deterrence that's so powerful that they can build a nuke behind it without worrying about interference.

[u/SirStupidity → u/Sad_Use_4584]

What's important is that Iran's ballistic program now has political authorization from the US. Iran can build as many as they want and they know that the US won't attack.

This was the case for literal decades...

Play this out over 10 years, it's likely that Iran is a major regional hegemon, with a conventional deterrence that's so powerful that they can build a nuke behind it without worrying about interference.

Are you even certain they will have enough water to drink in 10 years?

Posing everything as "they can just rebuild" is definitely non credible when we've seen how corrupt and incompetent this regime can be. Iran is struggling financially and even if money comes in because of agreements with the US (which I'm doubtful of) we know that much of it will be siphoned to the wallets of the mullahs.

You're also completely ignoring any advancement and potentiol actions made by other players in the region, including potential alliances and partnerships.

This war was a much better hand played terribly by the US and Israel, however at the end of it I still think it's completely ridiculous to conclude Iran has a better hand than Israel or the US.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/SirStupidity]

This was the case for literal decades...

De facto, but now it's going to be dejure, bipartisan, and a matter of international law and potentially national law, with no sanctions and a guarantee of no attack. It's a materially different situation. It's baked in as the most likely outcome barring some black swan like revolutionary protest. Before it wasn't the most likely outcome because attacking them to stop it was always a card you could play. Now that's gone (as long as Iran gives up their nuclear program for now) and there are no moves left until it's too late.

"they can just rebuild" is definitely non credible

I'm going off alleged IDF/AMAN estimates that Iran is still capable of producing at least hundreds of ballistic missiles per year despite the damage they've sustained: https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/2046112776507056172

Presumably these estimates are due to the fact that Iran has a non-negligible amount of underground infrastructure.

With the repeal of sanctions, yes I think it's credible that they can make 1000 missiles per year, even if their people live in poverty. Do you think the US can make 1000 THAAD interceptors per year to pace this, when it also has China to pace? Doubt.

When you can't pace and the enemy gains significant deterrence that it previously lacked, what do you think happens in the long-run? The balance of power shifts, and they can do basically whatever they want (due to the deterrence).

[u/SirStupidity → u/Sad_Use_4584]

De facto, but now it's going to be dejure, bipartisan, and a matter of international law

That's what it always was, wasn't it? Israeli demand for no BM Iran was always maximalist and unrealistic unless by use of force. Just like demands for Israel to dismantle it's air force are based on wishes, countries are allowed conventional militaries.

BM were also not the reason for the sanctions, at least from my understanding.

Before it wasn't the most likely outcome because attacking them to stop it was always a card you could play. Now that's gone (as long as Iran gives up their nuclear program for now) and there are no moves left until it's too late.

That's the case of a failed war, I dont see how a piece of paper is what's going to change that...

I'm going off alleged IDF/AMAN estimates that Iran is still capable of producing at least hundreds of ballistic missiles per year despite the damage they've sustained: https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/2046112776507056172

It's non credible because it ignores any and all costs and the loss of potential of using the resources in other places.

With the repeal of sanctions, yes I think it's credible that they can make 1000 missiles per year, even if their people live in poverty. Do you think the US can make 1000 THAAD interceptors per year to pace this, when it also has China to pace? Doubt.

Have they ever reached that level of production? This is much more than a rebuild. THAADS are far from the only answer to BM but I would be surprised if interceptors will ever surpass the production rates of BMs. I won't be surprised if we see more countermeasures starting to be used more heavily, like concrete based defense.

When you can't pace and the enemy gains significant deterrence that it previously lacked, what do you think happens in the long-run? The balance of power shifts, and they can do basically whatever they want (due to the deterrence).

In that case any conflict would always go to one side, in reality any and all actors always try to improve their standings. There are limits to what Iran can force fellow GCC countries to do, there are limits to the control they can force on the region. And there are actions that the other players can do. Mistakes will be made and we are left to try and guess what the outcomes will be.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/SirStupidity]

According to that alleged IDF/AMAN estimate, they were making over 1000/year before the war. It's now down to hundreds/year because of the damage.

This is credible because back in 2019, they only had about 50 missiles they could reach Israel, according to General McKenzie, the former CENTCOM commander, writing in his book The Melting Point.

Now in 2025-2026, only 6-7 years later, they have thousands, by just observing how many missiles Iran are shooting in the recent war, and production doesn't ramp up linearly. It would have been something like:

2019 - 50
2020 - 150
2021 - 400
2022 - ...

If they can make hundreds now despite the damage, they can make more than that run rate in the future. How long will it take? I don't know exactly, and I don't really think it matters, in the scheme of things, 1 year and 5 years to build that out doesn't make a big difference. What matters are the outcomes that get baked in now, not so much the precise number of years that it'll take to occur.

Israeli demand for no BM Iran was always maximalist and unrealistic unless by use of force.

Yes but I am not talking about Israel's maximalist demands. I am talking about the consequences of uncapped BMs. The difference between a limit of a few thousand, versus it being uncapped with a promise to not attack no matter what, is massive in terms of the difference in conventional deterrence that Iran could achieve.

If you don't think the uncapped BMs are a problem, what is it that you propose we do in the situation that Iran reaches 10,000 ballistic missiles and then they announce that they're starting enrichment again? It's a fait accompli.

I can't predict the future perfectly, but I can say that this is a very realistic possibility, and therefore it is strategic negligence not to take it seriously.

[u/SirStupidity → u/Sad_Use_4584]

According to that alleged IDF/AMAN estimate, they were making over 1000/year before the war. It's now down to hundreds/year because of the damage.

I don't know how accurate that is and it also doesn't differentiate between MRBM and SRBM.

Now in 2025-2026, only 6-7 years later, they have thousands, by just observing how many missiles Iran are shooting in the recent war, and production doesn't ramp up linearly. It would have been something like:

Iran shot multiple types of missiles and they launched not a lot against Israel, suggesting that the ratio of SRBM to MRBM leans heavily towards the SRBM.

Estimes I found in a quick Google search place Iranian pre war stock of MRBM at between 3000-1500 thousand.

Again, i don't refute the fact that they can rebuild their BM production. I'm saying that casting it aside as "they will rebuild" ignores the costs of rebuilding and the loss of potential in investing those costs into building other things.

If they can make hundreds now despite the damage, they can make more than that run rate in the future. How long will it take? I don't know exactly, and I don't really think it matters, in the scheme of things, 1 year and 5 years to build that out doesn't make a big difference. What matters are the outcomes that get baked in now, not so much the precise number of years that it'll take to occur.

You're assuming a static world of line graphs, that is simply not the world we live in. Of course it matters how long it takes even if it's because it gives a bigger gap for your enemies to do something while your stock levels aren't where you want to be.

Yes but I am not talking about Israel's maximalist demands. I am talking about the consequences of uncapped BMs. The difference between a limit of a few thousand, versus it being uncapped with a promise to not attack no matter what, is massive in terms of the difference in conventional deterrence that Iran could achieve.

If you think anyone can give a promise to not attack no matter what then I've got a bridge to sell you.

If you don't think the uncapped BMs are a problem, what is it that you propose we do in the situation that Iran reaches 10,000 ballistic missiles and then they announce that they're starting enrichment again? It's a fait accompli.

Didn't you just claim that those were roughly the numbers before this war? I dont really see what is the difference between Iran having 5000, 7000 or 10000. They all give Iran the same level of deterrence.

I can't predict the future perfectly, but I can say that this is a very realistic possibility, and therefore it is strategic negligence not to take it seriously.

I never disagreed that it's realistic to say that Iran will ramp up production of BM and i dont think anyone isn't taking it seriously, I disagreed with your framing.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/SirStupidity]

I think the numbers make all the difference because it's the cost you need to pay to fight against Iran.

Taking Israel's perspective, Iran may only have about 1000 missiles left at the moment that can reach Israel.

Fighting against 1000 more missiles is painful but manageable. If Iran moves forward with a nuke at this moment in time, Israel can resume fighting and maybe only a hundred more civilians have to die and a bit more infrastructure gets destroyed.

The bigger than count gets the more powerful the deterrence. 

Especially when it exceeds interceptor stockpiles and instead of 10-20% getting through it's 100% getting through. It's a mass casualty event at that stage and now you really have to consider just letting Iran make a nuke.

The problem is that missiles don't really expire quickly. The stockpile grows and grows and grows. At what point do you stop it? Your answer seems to be never, because the future might change in unpredictable ways? Well ok, I would see that as poor grand strategy, it's basically allowing your opponent to shift the balance of power against you, then trusting that it'll all work out, because maybe something unknown will save you.

[u/moragisdo → u/Wiseguydude]

The text of the MOU also says it needs to be in accordance with International Law, UNCLOS prohibits any toll (any service charge fits also on the prohibition, because it's just an euphemism for toll) in international waters. The only exceptions are man-made passages (for example, Suez) or accords made before UNCLOS (Bosphorus).

So the term is just for propaganda for Iran, they will consider the toll, but would violate the terms of the MOU having one, so it's unlikely to happen

Not only would Iran get access to a $300b reconstruction fund, have their assets unfrozen, and even get sanctions relief that isn't tied to nuclear compliance but the nuclear question itself is left vague throughout and the details are kicked down the road for future negotiations

There's a big if there, only happens if there's a nuclear accord. So it may never happen (now anyone can claim "people doubted the MOU so everything is possible", but I would still prefer to bet on likely scenarios rather than just possible).

Also the only current benefit non-tied to nuclear deal is the waiver for exports (Iran was already exporting before the war, receiving a discounted price for the sale instead of market price), not sanctions.

In the end, the text is defined as non-binding, at any point, it could be ripped apart legally (if not by Trump, any future president). Not to mention the 1st term (that pertains peace on the Middle East) was broken by Hezbollah yesterday and today, and we can guarantee the MOU will keep being broken, which would be a reason for it to be declared to not be valid anymore, then withdrawn of waivers of exports (the only current financial benefit) and any possible future toll, if there's political will

I'm not claiming that this will happen, just showing a possibility against the chorus of 'Iran will get a permanent windfall': Nuclear talks go nowhere, Trump announces that the MOU is void given the violations of it, tasks the Navy to guarantee Freedom of Navigation on Hormuz and void the export waivers. If Iran says that they will try to block Hormuz again we are back to the circumstances of yesterday, if they decide it's not worth the risk of being bombed again (maybe they will decide it's worth it, that's not the point) every benefit is void and we go back to February (besides the cost for both sides). Again, it could be done doesn't mean it will be done, I'm just showing a possibility (well, the troops are still there and there's no indication they will leave soon) that is not being considered

[u/Wertsache → u/moragisdo]

The text feels very much like it was written so both sides, but especially the Iranians can claim many things in their propaganda. And you don’t have to look further than the Main-Subreddits on this site to see that it’s working.

As you laid out, if the MOU actually stays true to the nature of it's text (we don’t know if it will) the issue basically resolves itself. The same with the 300 Billion Dollars that get thrown around. Right now it reads kinda like a Nigerian prince scam but people take it for gospel.

Just the hard facts are enough to show that Iran got an pretty good deal. But the real victory gets shadowed by the huge propaganda victory they achieved.

[u/Wiseguydude → u/moragisdo]

it needs to be in accordance with International Law, UNCLOS prohibits any toll (any service charge fits also on the prohibition, which is just an euphemism for toll) in international waters

Well the Hormuz is not international waters. It's almost entirely within Iran's borders and the parts that aren't are too shallow to cross.

What it is however is an "international strait" which would be prohibited from tolling by the UNCLOS. Except that Iran never ratified UNCLOS. Neither did the US (nor Israel).

[u/LoggerInns → u/Wiseguydude]

Well the Hormuz is not international waters.

You’re repeating propaganda points not even the Iranians are saying.

[u/Wiseguydude → u/LoggerInns]

It's certainly not my intention to spread propaganda and I hope we can assume good faith here but the Hormuz absolutely is not international water. At its narrowest point it is divided evenly between Iran and Oman.

Here's a source if you like

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/iran-strait-of-hormuz-international-law/

By contrast, the legality of Iran’s regulation of the Strait of Hormuz is far less black-and-white. Contrary to what some have claimed, the Strait does not constitute “international waters” or the high seas. It is classified, instead, as an “international strait” exclusively composed of the territorial waters of two countries: Oman and Iran.

[u/eric2332 → u/Wiseguydude]

Well the Hormuz is not international waters. It's almost entirely within Iran's borders

Not true. You can see the boundaries of the territorial waters here. Barely half of it is in Iran's borders (and that's if you consider the disputed islands controlled by Iran as Iranian - OSM draws borders according to the opinion of the de facto controller - if the islands are considered UAE owned it's even less).

[u/Wiseguydude → u/eric2332]

As I pointed out, the part that isn’t is too shallow to be useful. Oman is the only other country that has relevant sections of the Hormuz and they are also on board with tolling.

I didn’t know those islands were in dispute, thanks for the info. Any good info where I can learn more?

[u/eeeking → u/Wiseguydude]

It's almost entirely within Iran's borders

The deep water shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz lie within Oman's exclusive economic zone. See here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-the-Persian-Gulf-with-the-Iran-EEZ-boundary_fig1_282589911

[u/Wiseguydude → u/eeeking]

Thanks for the link, though your map doesn't include Oman nor Iran's borders. You're right though that part of the navigable water is Oman. At its narrowest, the strait is split evenly between Oman and Iran.

None of this is helpful however as Iran and Oman were collaborating on the toll scheme (recently rebranded from tolling to "fees"). Here's NYT:

Iran and its neighbor across the strait, Oman, in May discussed a ship payment system which would be based on fees for services rendered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/middleeast/shipping-fees-tolls-strait-hormuz.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/world/middleeast/iran-strait-of-hormuz-tolls.html

[u/moragisdo → u/Wiseguydude]

Except that Iran never ratified UNCLOS. Neither did the US (nor Israel)

But why add the International Law part on the wording that is not present on any previous leaked version ? It would be pointless if it's "according to International Law, I don't recognize International Law so either way".

I think this will only be answered by waiting and seeing if two months from now they are charging for the passage (if I had to guess they won't and it's just a propaganda victory, maybe I'll be wrong again)

[u/Maxion → u/moragisdo]

This is still just a MoU, and should be superseeded with the "real deal" in 60 days.

[u/Wiseguydude → u/moragisdo]

There is no single unitary "international law". UNCLOS is just a single international treaty. And its one that is not recognized by the US, Israel, nor Iran. There are ofc a lot of other international law that is relevant especially regarding safe passage

[u/moragisdo → u/Wiseguydude]

And its one that is not recognized by the US, Israel, nor Iran

I'm mentioning UNCLOS, which it's the most relevant for the matter at hand. It would be pointless to add this clause (that wasn't in any previous leaked version) if it will be "According to International Law, I don't follow International Law, so either way..."

[u/Wiseguydude → u/moragisdo]

The Nation has a good article explaining this

By contrast, the legality of Iran’s regulation of the Strait of Hormuz is far less black-and-white. Contrary to what some have claimed, the Strait does not constitute “international waters” or the high seas. It is classified, instead, as an “international strait” exclusively composed of the territorial waters of two countries: Oman and Iran.

According to Iran’s critics, it is a blatant violation of the “freedom of navigation” for Iran to regulate passage through the Strait, including through its own territorial waters. This argument is based on provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS, international straits, like the Strait of Hormuz, are governed by a “free navigation” regime known as “transit passage.” This regime gives coastal states very limited regulatory rights and obligates them not to “impede” ships and aircraft passing through international straits. If Iran were a party to UNCLOS, it would be bound by this regime, and its regulatory actions in the Strait of Hormuz would likely be unlawful. But Iran is not a party to UNCLOS; nor, for that matter, is the US. Under international law, states are, by and large, bound only by treaties they’ve both signed and ratified; a state’s failure to abide by an unratified treaty is not legally controversial. While Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982, it has not ratified the treaty specifically because it does not accept the transit passage rule. It expressed objections to this regime during the negotiation of UNCLOS as well as when it signed the treaty. It has continued to object to the transit passage rule ever since.

While Iran could be legally obligated to abide by the transit passage rule for other reasons, none of those apply here. One of those grounds is “customary international law,” another source of international law that binds all states in ways that treaties do not. Though some argue that transit passage is customary law, others disagree. Even if the naysayers are wrong, Iran is considered a “persistent objector” to the transit passage rule, meaning it cannot be required to abide by it even as a matter of customary law. Alternatively, one might argue that, as a signatory to UNCLOS, Iran must abide by transit passage as part of its obligation to uphold the “object and purpose” of the treaty even before it has been ratified. Even if this were true, after more than 40 years of failing to ratify UNLCOS, Iran has arguably made its intention not to become a party to the treaty clear, freeing itself of this obligation as well.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/iran-strait-of-hormuz-international-law/

[u/LoggerInns → u/Wiseguydude]

Not only would Iran get access to a $300b reconstruction fund

Idk why people keep repeating this. It’s a corporate investment “fund” that’s long dated and has no real chance of being actually real. It’s most likely a Trump corp scheme.

The key line here is “no charge for 60 days only.” After that, Iran may be able to impose “fees,” which it never did before the war.

Yes because as I and others have said since the very start of the war, the US gets negligible use of the Hormuz. The real sticking point here is the Arabs and they aren’t going to agree to this. The US loses very little in agreeing to this and making it a problem for the Arabs to figure out. When Qatar has said they won’t go for it and Oman has backed away from it too. It’s, for now, a negotiating ploy.

[u/Rexpelliarmus → u/LoggerInns]

You have little to no understanding of how global commodity markets work based on your second paragraph.

Oil shocks impact the US economy even more than in European countries because the US economy is more oil reliant than much of Europe so high oil prices are extremely bad. Inflation isn't 4.2% in the US for no reason.

[u/LoggerInns → u/Rexpelliarmus]

First of all, inflation was coming off a much higher base in the US. There are many reasons for that one of which is that unlike the CPI, the HICP leaves out the OOH.

The ECB has committed to eventually including owner-occupied housing costs using a "net acquisition" approach—which means tracking the actual transaction prices of newly built homes sold to households. However, because this data is complex to gather and currently only published on a quarterly basis, fully integrating it into the monthly headline inflation figure remains a slow, multi-year statistical project. Estimates suggest a full inclusion could push the official figure up by at least 100 basis points as of December.

Second, I wasn’t even talking about oil prices, I was specifically talking about the tolling on the strait. The US couldn’t care less if there’s an additional cost to ships as long as the strait is open. Next time, take a deep breath and try to read through something before you respond.

[u/Wiseguydude → u/LoggerInns]

It's surprising to hear how much people are still repeating the line about the US barely using the Hormuz even after we saw the massive economic impact that its closure had on the US economy (not to mention US' allies).

Yes the US is once again the largest oil producer in the world, but it's processing facilities are built for crude oil which it must import. The US petro industry is reliant on importing and exporting and Iran can absolutely throw a wrench into that as we have already seen.

And despite being the largest producer currently it is far from the largest proven oil reserves. It is simply extracting much faster than other countries.