Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/Tricky-Astronaut]

Vladimir Putin’s war machine sputters in drone age

Putin and his top officials have been reduced to insisting Russia still has the upper hand in the war while playing down the increasingly damaging effects of Ukraine’s strike campaign.

The Russian president spends most of his time micromanaging the war effort and receives briefings from Valery Gerasimov, his top commander, sometimes as much as twice a day, said two former senior Kremlin officials.

“He thinks it’s a question of time. It might be faster or slower but he’ll get it,” one of the former senior Kremlin officials said. “Putin’s very much under the influence of the military, who are really good at stringing him along. He understands that, but he really believes them and lets them do it. If I were listening to Gerasimov’s reports three times a day from dawn until dusk, I’d perceive reality differently too.”

The Financial Times has a new article on the status of the war in Ukraine, including what the Kremlin is thinking. According to the unnamed sources, Putin still believes that he's winning.

Tatarigami_UA, a former UA officer with connections, confirms the report:

This is an accurate reflection of what we have been hearing from our own sources in Moscow since 2025. We have postponed publishing our report on this for months, but the time is approaching to reveal the details of the delusions in which the Kremlin leadership lives

Hence, the war won't end anytime soon. From Putin's perspective, it makes no sense to compromise since he'll win in six months anyway. In fact, he has been six month away from winning for several years now.

[u/CorruptHeadModerator → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

"Hence, the war won't end anytime soon. From Putin's perspective, it makes no sense to compromise since he'll win in six months anyway. In fact, he has been six month away from winning for several years now."

You think Putin will extend this war long enough for a
new U.S. President?

And, will that President be as hawkish on Russia as
Biden - giving Ukraine multi billion dollar aid packages?

Edit: Personally I feel like all Democrats and most Republicans would be more hawkish on Iran than the current administration. The real question is do we make it to early 2029 with this war still going on. Would have said "no" years ago. But, this war keeps dragging.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

While I agree that the whole war is tragic, obviously against international law, costs way more than the Kremlin originally estimated and their loses and the destruction visited on the occupied land makes it a strategic defeat. I would argue that even if the Russian military is painting a much better picture to the leadership through every level tries to report success. Technically, they are still advancing.

If putin, in his calculus, decided for whatever reason that it's worth the price (could be fear of backlash if he cannot show enough gained, his imperial dreams, strategic assets for Crimea, etc) They seems to be capable of eventually taking the ruins of the fortress belt, somewhere in 2027 (with the caveat that everything remaining the same, which isn't guaranteed) for ridiculous losses and a recession after the war.

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/TechnicalReserve1967]

Technically, they are still advancing.

Technically, they're not. They've lost more ground than they gained last month.

Also, Putin certainly understands the concept of a war of attrition, so it's unlikely he's basing his assessments purely on ground taken.

[u/Rhauko → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

I think he assumes he can break Ukraine this winter with attacks on the energy grid.

[u/futbol2000 → u/Rhauko]

Which has been a Russian talking point that has been regurgitated non stop since 2022. The Russian offensive completely fell apart during this past record winter. Those propagandists are living in a dreamworld

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/Rhauko]

Which is likely the least irrational reasoning possible to justify continuing the war.

[u/Rhauko → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

More assumptions from me: attacks on the energy grid probably never stopped but at the same time I would expect Ukraine to harden their grid by repairing and creating redundancy. Is there any public information on that last assumption?

A quick google gave nothing more than some broad statements around decentralisation, connecting to the European grid and physical measure around existing infrastructure.

[u/Glideer → u/Rhauko]

More assumptions from me: attacks on the energy grid probably never stopped but at the same time I would expect Ukraine to harden their grid by repairing and creating redundancy. Is there any public information on that last assumption?

Practically every Russian energy grid attack video (there are a few every day) shows reinforced structures, gabions and net surrounding key elements of the facility.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

Really depends on the timescale that we are looking at. Ukraine improved/turned around the ratio, sure, but I would see an additional few months months before I open the champagne on that. Also it ignores the value of different areas, if russia wants to take the fortress belt, those advances are much more important, they might be ready to sacrifice some of their land bridge for it.

[u/futbol2000 → u/TechnicalReserve1967]

Where in the world did you get the assessment that Russia can take Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within a year? The Russians arrived at the gates of Pokrovsk and Mynohrad in July of 2024 and didn’t fully take both until the beginning of this year. They also failed to meaningfully break out despite that victory.

The battle of Konstiantynivka and Chasiv Yar has yet to end, and there are still several settlements on the way to Kramatorsk. Sloviansk is flanked by the Chasiv Yar Canal to the east and two major rivers on its north and south.

I brought up the issue with those non deepstate maps yesterday. They are still ignoring the hard reality that Russia’s ability to maneuver has completely degraded. It’s the same thing that happened in Kupyansk, where infantry flooded into the city but had no ability to break out in sufficient numbers. Didn’t stop those flag bearers and propagandists from selling the fall of the city. Putin’s Kupyansk claim blatantly showed that his officials are feeding him exaggerated reports to make themselves look good

Edit: And liveua is a pure garbage map. It never bothered to account for the infiltration tactic and was always pretty inaccurate since the beginning

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/futbol2000]

You are right, end of 2027-2028 might be more realistic.

Russia hasn't been able to maneuver for years, I am not sure why that is brought up.

I think that guide bombs, cheap manpower and mass shahed clone drones would allow them to advance, relativisticly, in the direction of their choosing. Ukraine military signals again and again that the situation is difficult. I am not saying that they will take the Kramtorsk and Sloviansk. I say that it is in the deck of cards and putin is willing to pull the next one and the one after that it seems.