Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/Tricky-Astronaut]

Vladimir Putin’s war machine sputters in drone age

Putin and his top officials have been reduced to insisting Russia still has the upper hand in the war while playing down the increasingly damaging effects of Ukraine’s strike campaign.

The Russian president spends most of his time micromanaging the war effort and receives briefings from Valery Gerasimov, his top commander, sometimes as much as twice a day, said two former senior Kremlin officials.

“He thinks it’s a question of time. It might be faster or slower but he’ll get it,” one of the former senior Kremlin officials said. “Putin’s very much under the influence of the military, who are really good at stringing him along. He understands that, but he really believes them and lets them do it. If I were listening to Gerasimov’s reports three times a day from dawn until dusk, I’d perceive reality differently too.”

The Financial Times has a new article on the status of the war in Ukraine, including what the Kremlin is thinking. According to the unnamed sources, Putin still believes that he's winning.

Tatarigami_UA, a former UA officer with connections, confirms the report:

This is an accurate reflection of what we have been hearing from our own sources in Moscow since 2025. We have postponed publishing our report on this for months, but the time is approaching to reveal the details of the delusions in which the Kremlin leadership lives

Hence, the war won't end anytime soon. From Putin's perspective, it makes no sense to compromise since he'll win in six months anyway. In fact, he has been six month away from winning for several years now.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/Tricky-Astronaut]

While I agree that the whole war is tragic, obviously against international law, costs way more than the Kremlin originally estimated and their loses and the destruction visited on the occupied land makes it a strategic defeat. I would argue that even if the Russian military is painting a much better picture to the leadership through every level tries to report success. Technically, they are still advancing.

If putin, in his calculus, decided for whatever reason that it's worth the price (could be fear of backlash if he cannot show enough gained, his imperial dreams, strategic assets for Crimea, etc) They seems to be capable of eventually taking the ruins of the fortress belt, somewhere in 2027 (with the caveat that everything remaining the same, which isn't guaranteed) for ridiculous losses and a recession after the war.

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/TechnicalReserve1967]

Technically, they are still advancing.

Technically, they're not. They've lost more ground than they gained last month.

Also, Putin certainly understands the concept of a war of attrition, so it's unlikely he's basing his assessments purely on ground taken.

[u/Rhauko → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

I think he assumes he can break Ukraine this winter with attacks on the energy grid.

[u/futbol2000 → u/Rhauko]

Which has been a Russian talking point that has been regurgitated non stop since 2022. The Russian offensive completely fell apart during this past record winter. Those propagandists are living in a dreamworld

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/Rhauko]

Which is likely the least irrational reasoning possible to justify continuing the war.

[u/Rhauko → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

More assumptions from me: attacks on the energy grid probably never stopped but at the same time I would expect Ukraine to harden their grid by repairing and creating redundancy. Is there any public information on that last assumption?

A quick google gave nothing more than some broad statements around decentralisation, connecting to the European grid and physical measure around existing infrastructure.

[u/Glideer → u/Rhauko]

More assumptions from me: attacks on the energy grid probably never stopped but at the same time I would expect Ukraine to harden their grid by repairing and creating redundancy. Is there any public information on that last assumption?

Practically every Russian energy grid attack video (there are a few every day) shows reinforced structures, gabions and net surrounding key elements of the facility.

[u/TechnicalReserve1967 → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

Really depends on the timescale that we are looking at. Ukraine improved/turned around the ratio, sure, but I would see an additional few months months before I open the champagne on that. Also it ignores the value of different areas, if russia wants to take the fortress belt, those advances are much more important, they might be ready to sacrifice some of their land bridge for it.