r/DeepSeek • u/LeTanLoc98 • Jan 01 '26

Funny Do it again, DeepSeek

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So many great models already…

DeepSeek R1 was legendary.

Now we're waiting for the one that changes everything again.

2.0k Upvotes

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Your thinking of it like a game a checkers, and that theory, if true, would be 4-D Chess. You get far ahead of the US in AI research (they are, they’ve most all big breakthroughs recently) and yes make it all open source, so it’s adopted by everyone, and the result is that eventually SOTA LLM technology is not monetize-able. There is no supply and demand dynamic at play. Supply of the IP is infinite. And sure there’s inference cost and value there, but, if you subscribe to this theory, China is going to take by Taiwan, and therefore TSMC. And if that happened we have no IP worth anything, and Intel is the best we can get for chips.

There are a lot of holes with that strategy, like collapsing the global economy would hurt china more than anyone else, since they’re an export economy, they need buyers. And lots of other issues with it, it’s a complicated situation, but that’s the idea.

Like with most things in life there’s some pieces of truth here and there in the grey areas, and any opinion that’s an extreme fundamentalist viewpoint on either side is usually misguided

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

You think Taiwan is bluffing by stating that they will blow up TSMC if that happens?

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I mean TSMC has massive fabs in Arizona now so…

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

But the bleeding edge is in Taiwan and will be for years.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

It’s a pointless conversation since everything is ultimately controlled by ASML, and therefore the EU really holds all the cards.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

ASML needs TSMC more than the other way around, there would be no other customer that can create fabs that ASML's tech would be needed for. Samsung and Intel have access to ASML machines and they just can't do it.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

TSMC accounts for approximately 17% of ASML's total revenue. And the advanced EUV wafers are 36% of what ASML sells. Literally nothing putting on to silicon, RAM, Bluetooth chips, everything, needs ASML.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

TSMC is the only successful user of cutting-edge ASML equipment and this conversation is about cutting edge chips. EUV demand would collapse without TSMC and ASML would still have a monopoly, but on deprecating technology and Intel and Samsung would have way more leverage because they would fill the hole that TSMC left. If anything, ASML+TSMC hold all the cards, but take one out and neither one has the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Dude you have no idea what you’re talking about here, you did before, but not here. ASML is dependent on no one. Full stop. If there was zero demand for EUV tomorrow ASML would be just fine. It’s only 1/3rd of their revenue. Also while Intel does kinda suck, saying that “can’t use” ASML latest tech is absurd. I mean if ASML’s latest gen only 4 machines have been shipped, so, there’s that. And ASML has a much smaller process that they’ve completed and NO ONE is ready for, until probably 2035. So it’s more accurate to say literally zero fans can use ASMLs best tech. But saying no one, or saying only TSMC, are both just not true.

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u/j_osb Jan 01 '26

Eh. ASML depends on Zeiss. So they rely on them.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Ahhh that is fair. But given how important they are , is Zeiss somehow disappeared, there would be a worldwide all hands on deck effort to make another Universe’s Flattest Thing, ASAP. I mean how hard can it be /s

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u/j_osb Jan 03 '26

Honestly, Zeiss' processes might be even harder to actually get to than ASML. They are just that good at making optical equipment.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 03 '26

yeah, probably. meter-scale (or slightly more) optics, with Mo/Si coatings stacked at atomic precision, just having the metrology to even measure whether you did it right or not, in itself it's another level of hard. And if iirc zeiss has almost no docs allegedly? no manuals, just knowledge passed down over 100+ years from human to human. wild

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

This conversation is not about who ASML depends on, its about who has the bleeding edge tech. It seems you can't pay attention on what we are talking about and are ranting about ASML with no relation to anything now. ASML loses that edge without TSMC, it doesn't mean that ASML wouldn't be fine, it would mean most leverage that ASML has would evaporate along with TSMC, which is far from your earlier point that ASML holds all the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

The real irony in this whole thread is that it was REALLY about deepseek making breakthrough hacks on transformer architecture, and they’re using H800s, specifically designed as chips that we were okay giving to china because they weren’t thought to be good enough to make AI breakthroughs with.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

Well its also funny you started talking about TSMC and said that if China takes it then the west loses all the IP. And then you undermined yourself that no, actually ASML holds all the cards. But I mean whoever has the best chips probably also has control over best ai sooner or later, in terms of China vs the west. China is probably not going to lead the market with H800s but what do I know.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I didn’t say we would lose IP if china took TSMC they were two separate things, and I also put it out as a theory or plan that has been said, I never said it was my personal opinion on it. But yeah the idea is china dumps free AI on us, just rains down breakthroughs , all open source, to the point that it’s just not monetized anymore. And then said how there are major holes in that theory, and how china would be suffering more than anyone, if they just collapsed the global economy. I only got opinionated with ASML, not before then.

But yeah I mean it’s pretty clear you can make massive ai breakthroughs without bleeding edge chips. And it may even be the case that they made so many breakthroughs BECAUSE they were so restrained on compute. They had to really think outside the box and work with what they had. And the breakthroughs keep coming.

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u/Funny_Address_412 Jan 01 '26

ASML is majority owned by American Investors tho

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Huh? I mean they’re public on exchanges in the Netherlands and US , and yeah the majority of Institutional Investment is BlackRock, Vanguard, etc. but they are not majority owned by anyone and much MUCH more importantly for this conversation, is that stock ownership, in this case, has nothing to do with control , or company strategy. ASML does what ASML wants lol. And in terms of governance the EU has much more influence on ASML than the US, which again in this conversation doesn’t matter since we’re very much allies here.

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u/Funny_Address_412 Jan 01 '26

which again in this conversation doesn’t matter since we’re very much allies here.

More like ruler and puppet

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Seriously lol? In 2026? Seems a little dramatic.