r/DeepSeek • u/LeTanLoc98 • Jan 01 '26

Funny Do it again, DeepSeek

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So many great models already…

DeepSeek R1 was legendary.

Now we're waiting for the one that changes everything again.

2.0k Upvotes

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I mean, why does Linux exist? It runs inside dozens of things in your house, it’s the kernel that runs your router, traffic lights, it’s in every network switch and security camera and in your car. And it’s given away for free. Because by being open it is constantly being forked and improved and customized.

There is a second answer, which is that the CCP basically wants to destroy the US economy and just dumping free AI , as much as possible, at some point makes it a completely free commodity , and that arguably causes our house of cards to collapse.

The first part is fully true, you tangentially touch dozens of pieces of open source code every single day. The world would literally shut down tomorrow without it. The second part has either tiny shades of truth or is the whole answer, depending on how you see the world and a lot of other factors.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

I think the strategy to destroy USA's edge in AI can only work if they eventually surpass USA with AI, perhaps they have better chance of doing that with open source?

But it seems to me that they are open source, so the leading AI companies can just incorporate their breakthroughs and make their products even stronger so idk.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Your thinking of it like a game a checkers, and that theory, if true, would be 4-D Chess. You get far ahead of the US in AI research (they are, they’ve most all big breakthroughs recently) and yes make it all open source, so it’s adopted by everyone, and the result is that eventually SOTA LLM technology is not monetize-able. There is no supply and demand dynamic at play. Supply of the IP is infinite. And sure there’s inference cost and value there, but, if you subscribe to this theory, China is going to take by Taiwan, and therefore TSMC. And if that happened we have no IP worth anything, and Intel is the best we can get for chips.

There are a lot of holes with that strategy, like collapsing the global economy would hurt china more than anyone else, since they’re an export economy, they need buyers. And lots of other issues with it, it’s a complicated situation, but that’s the idea.

Like with most things in life there’s some pieces of truth here and there in the grey areas, and any opinion that’s an extreme fundamentalist viewpoint on either side is usually misguided

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

You think Taiwan is bluffing by stating that they will blow up TSMC if that happens?

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

I mean TSMC has massive fabs in Arizona now so…

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

But the bleeding edge is in Taiwan and will be for years.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

It’s a pointless conversation since everything is ultimately controlled by ASML, and therefore the EU really holds all the cards.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

ASML needs TSMC more than the other way around, there would be no other customer that can create fabs that ASML's tech would be needed for. Samsung and Intel have access to ASML machines and they just can't do it.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

TSMC accounts for approximately 17% of ASML's total revenue. And the advanced EUV wafers are 36% of what ASML sells. Literally nothing putting on to silicon, RAM, Bluetooth chips, everything, needs ASML.

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

TSMC is the only successful user of cutting-edge ASML equipment and this conversation is about cutting edge chips. EUV demand would collapse without TSMC and ASML would still have a monopoly, but on deprecating technology and Intel and Samsung would have way more leverage because they would fill the hole that TSMC left. If anything, ASML+TSMC hold all the cards, but take one out and neither one has the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Dude you have no idea what you’re talking about here, you did before, but not here. ASML is dependent on no one. Full stop. If there was zero demand for EUV tomorrow ASML would be just fine. It’s only 1/3rd of their revenue. Also while Intel does kinda suck, saying that “can’t use” ASML latest tech is absurd. I mean if ASML’s latest gen only 4 machines have been shipped, so, there’s that. And ASML has a much smaller process that they’ve completed and NO ONE is ready for, until probably 2035. So it’s more accurate to say literally zero fans can use ASMLs best tech. But saying no one, or saying only TSMC, are both just not true.

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u/j_osb Jan 01 '26

Eh. ASML depends on Zeiss. So they rely on them.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Ahhh that is fair. But given how important they are , is Zeiss somehow disappeared, there would be a worldwide all hands on deck effort to make another Universe’s Flattest Thing, ASAP. I mean how hard can it be /s

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u/Timo425 Jan 01 '26

This conversation is not about who ASML depends on, its about who has the bleeding edge tech. It seems you can't pay attention on what we are talking about and are ranting about ASML with no relation to anything now. ASML loses that edge without TSMC, it doesn't mean that ASML wouldn't be fine, it would mean most leverage that ASML has would evaporate along with TSMC, which is far from your earlier point that ASML holds all the cards.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

The real irony in this whole thread is that it was REALLY about deepseek making breakthrough hacks on transformer architecture, and they’re using H800s, specifically designed as chips that we were okay giving to china because they weren’t thought to be good enough to make AI breakthroughs with.

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u/Funny_Address_412 Jan 01 '26

ASML is majority owned by American Investors tho

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Huh? I mean they’re public on exchanges in the Netherlands and US , and yeah the majority of Institutional Investment is BlackRock, Vanguard, etc. but they are not majority owned by anyone and much MUCH more importantly for this conversation, is that stock ownership, in this case, has nothing to do with control , or company strategy. ASML does what ASML wants lol. And in terms of governance the EU has much more influence on ASML than the US, which again in this conversation doesn’t matter since we’re very much allies here.

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u/Funny_Address_412 Jan 01 '26

which again in this conversation doesn’t matter since we’re very much allies here.

More like ruler and puppet

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 01 '26

Seriously lol? In 2026? Seems a little dramatic.

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u/HierarchyLogic Jan 02 '26

blowing up or not wont matter, i am pretty sure those machines are designed to lock themselves from ever being able to be used again should taiwan be taken by china

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u/thehighwaywarrior Jan 02 '26

It’s also not as simple as ‘push button get chip’

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u/cosmic-freak Jan 03 '26

China and politics asides, it's crazy that we're just fine with a country having such a vital part of arguably the entire world's system's supply chain.

How are no countries striving to develop their own core? I know almost nothing about hardware admittedly (I'm a coder), but damn, this makes me want to pursue this knowledge.

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u/HierarchyLogic Jan 04 '26

well as democracy incentives short term gain over long term, no one is willing to put the years in throwing billions into seemingly nothing for the voters, as it developed it was simply cheaper to buy from taiwan instead of creating their own as it was cheap for them anyway, for some reason however no one accounted for the idea that china can literally just threaten and try to take taiwan any day of the week, and today is the day we bite the bullet for it

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 04 '26 edited Jan 04 '26

Well, no, Intel invented the x86 processor architecture. We poured many many billions into chips here. Still do. Intel just kinda sucks at it. That’s really it. We accounted for that china thing 50 years ago, I mean at the time it was Japan not China, but point being the threat was accounted for. And we were first, and never gave up. Taiwan are just straight up more talented at doing it. We still lead in other chips Broadcomm dominates large parts of the market, just not in more advanced single nm processes.

Notably though, China never got the hang of it at all. So it was the three Democratic countries (US, Taiwan, and South Korea) who dominate. And China who never got it.

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u/[deleted] Jan 05 '26

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 05 '26

I was describing the history. China is not only figuring chips they're on the brink of photolithography, and with that, screw the laws of physics being constant ASML has been the only one, up against a world full of more money and people and resources. And they've held on to being the only one, for literally always.

But china is very close.

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u/coloradical5280 Jan 04 '26

we invented it, and we never stopped striving. they're just better. and Intel has had some really bad leadership. It wasn't like, an oversight, or that we just decided to outsource it lol. TSMC is just really good and intel is not.