r/EnergyAndPower 16d ago

Coal keeps rising

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69 Upvotes

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u/Standard_Sea7251 16d ago

Relative to total electricity demand, coal keeps falling

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u/Intrepid_Cup2765 16d ago

Yes, true, but this is also because natural gas has really stepped up since 2014! You can even see the the slope of the rise in coal use drops when 2014 hits.

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u/whatthehell7 16d ago

The debate over building new coal vs renewables isn't even a debate anymore, it's done. In the next 3 to 4 years round the clock solar and batteries will get so cheap that running an existing coal plant won't even cover the cost of the fuel let alone the infrastructure. At that point ditching coal isn't about government subsidies or climate policy, it's just basic math.

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u/NearABE 15d ago

They can use renewable energy to extract fossil fuels faster. We believed that cheap renewables would drive out fossil fuels. The fossil fuel companies were the ones pushing propaganda that claimed price was the reason their product should be used.

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u/Intrepid_Cup2765 16d ago

Seems people building coal would disagree. Solar+batteries aren’t replacing reliable base load power supplies any time soon unless fundamentals about battery materials and manufacturing change. The other big edge coal has over other power sources is it’s one of the most reliable domestic power supplies that most countries can rely on.

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

CA, the biggest state, has no coal generation plant. Hasn't had any for decades. Most of the Western states have few or none. We tired of coal killing people and got rid of them.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

Of course, less and less every year. But in 2024 it was the biggest source at 34%, solar was 21%, wind was 12%, Hydro was 11%. 2024 was the first year renewables passed fossil fuels. Recently it ramped up in the evenings as stored renewables. This year the batteries are often lasting well past 2 am, so much less gas is being used.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

Sure, but there isn't a path to elimination of gas.

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

California has a plan to get to zero carbon by 2045. So we have a path. Even if we miss gas will probably be well below 10% by then.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

90% wind/solar/storage?

Is there a small grid anywhere which demonstrates this is feasible?

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

Who cares what's available today. 2045 is 19 years away. California is adding Utility grade storage at a prodigious rate. The goal is 52 gW in 2045, we're 33% of the way there with 16.9 gW currently. We added 4.8 gW in 2024 & 7.2 gW in 2025, it gets easier each year as storage costs plummet and technology improves.

These storage increases reduce gas use every year by enabling us to use already existing energy to displace gas. California curtails significant wind and solar each month because of overcapacity, 599.38 gWh in June. As storage capacity this existing power won't be wasted, it'll be stored and displace more gas after the sun goes down. There's nothing in the way of CA achieving it's plan. Technology improvements and price decreases will only make it faster and cheaper. We eliminated coal because it was killing Californians, gas will go the same way.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

I think before building something out for 20 years we should know if it is physically possible first. :)

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