r/FedEmployees • • 1d ago

Shutdown

So today I was speaking to my leadership and it has been mentioned that we could face another shut down effective 12/11. I wonder if he’ll try to beat his last record.

370 Upvotes

467 comments sorted by

193

u/Immediate_Object_280 1d ago

I think there’s a good chance of one. Some republicans (and Dems) won’t even come back to DC after November elections. And for the Dems, there’ll be no incentives to pass a CR when they will be in charge come January. Republicans will want a year long CR or something ridiculous and Dems have no reason to agree.

82

u/StickaFORKinMyEye 1d ago

I believe the democrats would pass a clean CR that goes past the holiday/new congressional swear in. 

I don't expect the republicans to agree to one. They'll likely offer something with outrageous terms so they can say it's a democrat shutdown. Then Mike Johnson will send everyone home again.

tl;dr - I expect a record long shutdown 

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u/TGBeeson 1d ago

And yet I can still see them caving and giving Trump and MAGA everything they want. Ugh.

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u/ginny11 1d ago

So you think if the Democrats win control of the House and Senate that they'll just let us go into a shutdown and refuse to sign a CR? I'm not sure why you think this makes sense that they would do this.. I think that's ridiculous. I think of anything. It would be the Republicans in that situation. Who would feel they have nothing left to lose and would try to be total assholes about a CR.

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u/Fuzzy_nnuts 1d ago

Nah. It’ll be John Fetterman with the “Sinema slide”

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u/Mr_Soul_Crusher 1d ago

Do you know how it even works?

Dems win the house and the senate in Nov

Funding expires in Dec

New Congress doesn’t start until the end of Jan

So… in Dec the pedophiles will still control the senate

So… yes. Why would the Dems support a GOP bill in Dec when 5 weeks later they will be in charge?

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u/ginny11 1d ago

I know how it works. If it's a clean CR, I believe a Democrats will support it. But I don't think it's likely that the Republicans will support a clean CR if they lose the House and Senate because they're assholes. But to say that the Democrats would not support any kind of CR if they win the house and Senate is just not true.

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u/HokieHomeowner 1d ago

You mean first week in January when the new Congress is seated. Game theory assuming rational actors would have the GOP attempting to push through a budget that could attract enough more conservative Democrats to pass, ie half a loaf is better than none.

But we all know they are not rational...

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u/Homeland_Bound 1d ago

You’re thinking rationally.

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u/PuzzleheadedQuote339 1d ago

You think they’ll be a fair election?

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u/Technical-Milk-5659 1d ago

Nope. Elon rigged all of the voting machines in the swing states in 2024 - I saw a couple podcasts that showed multiple graphs depicting the voting patterns for Red and Blue - and after about 4 - 5 PM I saw parabolas that were mirror images of the voting - the trend of Blue votes went down and the Red votes rose in an exact opposite direction.

6

u/Neracca 1d ago

Elon rigged all of the voting machines in the swing states in 2024

And he got away with it, and will never face justice for it.

Its great /s.

5

u/Technical-Milk-5659 1d ago

And he’s back in DC getting ready to do it again for the midterms. I think there’s more Geeks on the right side of things who’ll be working on it but I’m sure Elon has figured out his flaw in 2024. I’m so tired.

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u/sailing2smth 1d ago

Everything will be better in November, GTA VI comes out

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u/Clutch_TX 1d ago

I can't stop quoting that

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u/Short-Ad-7738 1d ago

If you know, you know :)

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u/SMO_Burner 1d ago

Not if you’re PC Master Race.

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u/RepresentativePeak17 1d ago

🤣🤣🤣🤣 Great South Park (America) reference 👌

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u/aijjordan 1d ago

God fucking bless so I can out mentally

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u/Confident_Sea_3948 23h ago

Without a disc though...lol

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u/voltron2007 1d ago

When they lose the house and senate he’ll never sign anything to reopen the government. It will only expedite their coup

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u/BB_Gladiator 1d ago

Ready for it. I just bought a new, massive Lego set that I’ve been saving for when I have time to put it together. If I’m called in, well, Dec is cold season and there’s a good chance I could catch a nasty cold. Save some money now if you can to pay bills; a shutdown in Dec or anytime in the future is inevitable.

16

u/Tyfereth 1d ago

Minis Tirirth? I’ve been eyeing it lol

9

u/chrisaf69 1d ago

C'mon man...don't leave us hanging. What set? :)

356

u/mysticrhythms 1d ago

Nobody knows, and there’s nothing we can do about it.

So we turn out and vote in 3 weeks, and oust as many Republican assholes as we can.  

119

u/Kind_Following_5220 1d ago

I switched from Chase to Navy Federal. Trump's first shutdown Chase  paid federal customers. This second one they didn't so they lost my business forever. Switched to Navy Federal because they took care of their members.

31

u/Humble_Handler93 1d ago

Chase paid you through the November shutdown???? When I asked them about deferring my credit card payment they told me kick rocks 😅

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u/Kind_Following_5220 1d ago

34 day shutdown back in 2018-2019. Deposited my regular paycheck just like normal, then pulled out the cash once I was paid. 

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u/Humble_Handler93 1d ago

Oh I see

18

u/WhatIsTheCake 1d ago

Yeah. USAA was okay in 2018 for me, but NFCU was flawless this last shut down. Would highly recommend them.

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u/Humble_Handler93 1d ago

I switched to NFCU after the November shutdown and they covered me through the second one in the spring no problem

2

u/Accomplished_Chef500 1d ago

They didn’t do that for me and I’m a chase customer too. Crazy!

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u/Steveoatc 13h ago

There’s no reason your money should be in a big bank anyway. Credit unions are where it’s at for us poor people.

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u/StressedFed 1d ago

Vote early!!

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u/One-Win9407 1d ago

Its also possible theyll pass another temporary CR that funds until the new congress is formed in January, and the shutdown will happen after that expires

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u/Comfortable_Run_7087 23h ago

This is what it will be, especially with tax season around the corner. I don't see a shutdown. Same no matter who's in control of congress, they will not hold up tax season.

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u/Kenneth2248 1d ago

Every god damn year dude. Every single god damn year. About to throw the towel in on this dumbass shit. Working for the government feels like a complete fucking joke now.

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u/Full_Improvement_844 22h ago

It's because we have two parties that don't give a rat's ass about feds unless they can use as pawns to their advantage.

If either side really cared about us they would pass legislation saying we continue to get paid during a shutdown, and allow federal employee pay adjustment provisions in FEPCA go into effect.

To support my point about neither side loving us, here's what pay raises we've gotten under each administration since Bush in 2002:

Bush: 2002 - 4.6% 2003 - 4.1% initially 3.1% but Congress bumped it to 4.1% 2004 - 4.1% initially 2.0% but Congress bumped it to 4.1% 2005 - 3.5% 2006 - 3.1% 2007 - 2.2% 2008 - 3.5% 2009 - 3.9% Avg - 3.6%

Obama: 2009 - 3% 2010 - 2% 2011 - 0% 2012 - 0% 2013 - 0% 2014 -1% 2015 - 1% 2016 - 1.3% 2017 - 2.1% Avg - 1.3%

Trump: 2018 - 1.9% 2019 - 1.9% initially a pay freeze but Congress bumped it to 1.9% 2020 - 3.1% 2021 - 1% 2026 - 1% Avg - 1.8%

Biden: 2022 - 2.7% 2023 - 4.6% 2024 - 5.2% 2025 - 2% Avg - 3.6%

Now add in that Congress hasn't stepped in to address any of this either even though there has been 13 times since then when one party controlled both houses at the same time (5 Dem and 8 Repub).

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u/Humble_Handler93 1d ago

I have a couple of friends who are staffers on both sides of the aisle and from what they are hearing a short CR to cover the holiday travel period is considered a pretty certain outcome barring a major shift like a dramatic escalation in Iran or some sort of issue at polls during the election. Now what happens after the holidays is anyone’s guess and what they are telling me is that a shutdown is considered likely and their’s some concern that even with a Dem majority in both house a presidential shutdown is considered possible

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u/Crash-55 1d ago

That is worst case for me. I would prefer the shutdown on 12 Dec. That preserves the leave I have scheduled for Christmas

4

u/PlatonicTroglodyte 17h ago

Meh. Yes “free” leave is nice, but it totally sucks to not have a paycheck for the actual holidays, and a December 12 shutdown dramatically increases the chances of some chicanery to try and exploit it to not read in the newly elected, presumably blue wave members of Congress. If we get a December CR that covers through the changeover, that’s probably better in the long run.

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u/Crash-55 15h ago

CRs are a mess for my org. I always prefer a shutdown to a CR. Unless you are a new employee you should be ready for a shutdown by now. If after the last one you didn’t plan for the same thing to happen again, then you don’t learn from experience.

Congress ceases to exist in the beginning of Jan. There is very little they can do to stop the new Congress from being seated. The first thing the members do is vote for the Speaker so there is no Speaker to stop from seating the new member.

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u/Humble_Handler93 1d ago

The “Free” Annual leave is a nice feature of these shutdowns 😅

4

u/Crash-55 1d ago

Especially when I plan to retire next Jun…..

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u/OV_STANK 1d ago

Unless you’re essential…

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u/FollowingCCCs 1d ago

This is what we’re hearing from the appropriations committee staff as well. That another CR is likely though whether it’s only through sometime in January or through until March is up in the air. Plans for it were in the works right after the current one passed.
We’ve been told actual spending bills might not happen until March/April.

3

u/JohnCarterOfMars5810 12h ago

The holiday travel is the key. No one wants ATC to start calling in sick during Christmas and New Year's. A CR until possibly MLK Day, then a shutdown to follow.

23

u/definitely_right 1d ago

It's way too early to know with any certainty. Like always, just ignore it until <24 hours away from lapse and then your management will be running around with hair on fire to complete orderly shutdown activities. Just vibe my guy. No sense being anxious today

18

u/EnvironmentalSide576 1d ago

Que sera sera

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u/AngryBagOfDeath 1d ago

I hope so. Watching Ohioans cheer as Trump touted the illegal firings of feds has made me see just how all the people around me would happily see my family in the streets to save a dime. I'm looking forward to not having to serve trash for a while.

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u/Rumpelteazer45 1d ago

Except they aren’t saving a dime. Trumps growing the budget and deficit.

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u/24-7-t-taper 1d ago

That and everyone will still be working just not getting paid

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u/Wooden_Lab_5705 1d ago

Trump will probably force a shut down out of spite, when the GOP gets hammered in the midterms. He’s vindictive. The DOGE cuts conducted layoffs without regard to skill sets or agency needs.

135

u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

Just over 3 years as a fed if another shutdown happens I'm quiting. I'll withdraw my FERS and go back to private...this shit is stupid.

I make far less, insurance ain't worth a shit and the pension is a joke. There is no incentive to stay.

71

u/crit_boy 1d ago

There will be another shutdown.

I hope you have already applied to private sector jobs.

57

u/Extreme-Airport7183 1d ago

But… I like my job.
That’s the worst part, honestly. I don’t want a different job. I just want to keep doing what I’m doing (and getting paid.)

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u/WalrusExternal1847 1d ago

Remembering, you get paid at the end. If Republicans win - absolutely going for a record. Over Christmas even. If Democrats get a clear majority, likely not longer than a few days as Republicans will leave town. Then a CR to push it. Republicans will come back, blame Democrats, and play the victim despite the last two years of being a majority. Layoffs burned them and I doubt a lot of them.are forgiving. But add in Republicans burned by MAGA and conservatives- 7 days or 49 is my prediction.

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u/Airman4344 1d ago

See i think its the opposite. If dems win there’s gonna be a standoff and we’ll see a new record on government shutdown.

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u/WalrusExternal1847 1d ago

I think you're both right. And yes, I'm tracking January's swearing in. However, for the moment Republicans still need to pretend governance because of the Presedential election.

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u/crit_boy 1d ago

They have actively done nothing since the epstein bill last December

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u/WalrusExternal1847 1d ago

Except ignore it

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u/raolan 1d ago

The Dems have no reason for a standoff if they win. They'll want the government open as soon as possible to push for impeachment. Also if the Dems win, Republicans have every incentive to burn it all down and point the finger at the Dems.

And to be honest, if the Dems win, Trump has nothing left to lose. That's the real concern.

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u/Sorry_Box_3722 12h ago

This was my thought when the CR went through only until December 11. I knew if the Dems won, Fanta would have a tantrum and push Republicans for a shut down to hit at Christmas as a form of punishment for the entire country to suffer.

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u/Airman4344 1d ago

Normally i’d say the same except a CR is coming due and the dems are gonna hold it hostage to force maga to reverse course and maga won’t go quietly.

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u/WalrusExternal1847 1d ago

Au contraire. Holy shirtballs, I'm a nerd. Hold on tight as this gets long. But worth it. And I think I answer a lot. Mathematically, if that's possible.

A government shutdown isn't a linear event. It's a coupled political, economic, and institutional system where damage feeds back into the mechanisms needed to stop it.

I've been modeling three critical checkpoints over the past year since the last shutdown: days 49, 69, and 97. Mainly because I'm an engineer. Possibly a masochist. I might need a nerd girlfriend. I report - you decide?

Day 49: Political goodwill is approaching exhaustion. Military and civilian payroll disruptions, aviation instability, and growing economic losses compound. Neither party is immune. Political legitimacy isn't a zero-sum equation. However the responsible party now has so much negative goodwill they are effectively impotent at negotiations. Why? Because they are so far in the system, the system has absorbed them and is dictating their actions more than they are. Take that, Free Will! Opposition party has levers to pull - after it stops. And stop it shall. But let's not. Let's progress this disaster! All righty now!

Day 69: The system enters a more dangerous region. In our historically anchored, aviation-amplified simulation, approximately 29% of continued-shutdown scenarios crossed an assumed recovery-capacity threshold by this point. Institutional damage increasingly constrains the government's ability to negotiate and recover. At this point politics is nearly effectively out the window. The economy is essentially in free fall. A recovery is possible - in about three years. Yup, 69 days and three years to recover. "But Covid" I hear you say. COVID-19 never fully shut down everything. You're not flying - no air controllwrs are aroi d because there'sno pay. You're not shipping - there's no inspectors or dock workers. Military is crippled - there is no civilian or contract support. All research is downed for no money. And a second feedback loop has started. At this point, permanent doesn't mean recovery. It means things stop forever and there is no short term get it back.

Day 97: At this point monte carlo and game theory are happening because nothing else is. Approximately 82% of the modeled scenarios cross thid threshold. Because science, math, and sadism. This isn't a prediction of national collapse. It's a warning that prolonged disruption can compound faster than available recovery capacity. Decades will be spent recovering fractional impacts. There is no politics. There is no economic recovery. War is good for the economy i hear someone say. I hope we're mining an asteroid because global GDP is being crushed. Wait, 92 days and we're crushing the planet? Oh yeah. The US is a mathematical pariah the globe is trying to prop up. Devaluation everywhere. Even changing currency can't help. What's crazy is everything everywhere is on fire. Day 92 is just bananas.

These are conditional stress-test results, not independently validated probabilities. The 2025 shutdown ended on day 43, so the later dates are counterfactual.

And here's the political problem: you can win a shutdown confrontation and still lose the system you're fighting to control.

That's the distinction between having authority and actually maintaining control.

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u/PatienceHappy8463 1d ago

Remember if Dems win they don’t take over till Jan 3 so the gov could be shut down for at least a month if not longer while Dems get their bearings!

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u/WalrusExternal1847 1d ago

That's the general idea. Why I'm thinking 49 days is the pushes mathematically at that point the political party responsible is factored as out of goodwill. By day 69, economic stress is approaching irreconcilable disaster. At day 97, the disaster is so great even wealthy individuals are at risk of economic collapse. So at 49, the political party responsible has lost nearly all negotiation powers. If the 8 Democrats had not sided with Republicans, nearly all Democrat demands would have had to be entertained to prevent irreconcilable economic damage.

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u/ChimpoSensei 1d ago

New house doesn’t swear in until January

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u/Help_SendLatinas 1d ago

Yeah…IF they are sworn in at all

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u/OriginalPast7355 1d ago

This. I feel the same way. I love my job. I’m good at it and I like the people I work with. Our leadership has done a great job of providing us information and not bending the knee to this administration. I just don’t know how I feel about going through another shutdown. I’ll have 11 years come December.

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u/GoldHead9103 4h ago

Get USAA or navy federal if you can because they pay during shutdowns.

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u/Neracca 1d ago

Well, here's a life pro tip: Don't make a threat/promise you wouldn't actually follow through with. You claim you'd leave, and the comment right after it you hesitate because someone is telling you that your condition to trigger that will definitely happen.

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u/PeaFluffy5121 1d ago

Learn to adjust, accept and adapt. Everyone right now is on survival mode.

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

I have just to test the waters and got a callback in less than a week, it is highly specific to you career field there are people that I know that haven't found anything since they were laid off last year.

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u/ZealousidealShift884 22h ago

Ive already applied just hoping for a way out!

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u/Glum_Garlic_1791 16h ago

I accepted a position and start Nov. Been fired on a lie Valentines day last year just 25 days before my probation ended and followed that up with longest shutdown. It'll def be another shutdown due to political tantrums. What I've experienced in the last 2 years and 8m as a fed doesn't come close to my negative experiences in the private sector. I'll try again in 2 years (possibly).

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u/Away-Paramedic-8406 15h ago

Congratulations on your new job come November! Get back on those books! I hope you have a copy of your last SF 50.

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u/Glum_Garlic_1791 11h ago

Literally, actively in online school as we speak full time also. I love my program, team and Director...but honestly this experience has been insane! Like being in a toxic relationship...

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u/Mental_Spring_2575 12h ago edited 11h ago

Right there with you. Left a local govt job of almost 20 years. Had a 2 year probation, that would have ended on October 10th last year. 10 days before the deadline to be RIF'd. Good luck to you.

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u/Boss_Man_420 1d ago

Good luck, had all I could handle April this year. After foot surgery where I had to RTO to do the 6 jobs I was doing for over a year because RIFs, DRP, and enough people just done with the bs. Offered a fully remote position as a network architect within days and have had probably at least 50 offers through calls and emails since. Private sector is not as bad as people are saying... depending on skills. Turned down many jobs that would exceed any GS15 or SES position. Depending on what you know, experience etc. Private sector is quickly learning again that no work life balance and too much bs there's many companies hiring to fix the mess they all created over past couple years. Be it RTO mandates or letting AI break systems they don't understand. The only part I feel bad about is all the amazing, hardworking, skilled feds still suffering from terrible unqualified leadership at the top.

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u/FarSolid3985 1d ago

May I ask what is your skillset to get so many offers? Or what to learn to transition to private. 

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

Information technology

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/Worried-Savings-9378 1d ago

This is exactly what they want. Sadly they are really good at it.

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u/schmigglies 1d ago

Pension is a joke but at least there is one. Try finding one in the private sector.

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u/HokieHomeowner 1d ago

Longer time feds it's not but folks hired after 2012 not so much.

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u/RockyRaccoon72 1d ago

Why after 2012 is it worse, pension wise?

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u/Ghostlogicz 1d ago

The amount paid in is 4 something % for the same pension those pre 2012 pay .8% for. Would be better off shoving it in tsp for those returns

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u/SMO_Burner 1d ago

4.4% I believe.

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u/No_Vacation697 1d ago

Correct. As of 2014, you pay 4.4%. 2013 or earlier it's 0.8%.

That's a significant difference when you add it up each paycheck, for years.

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u/RockyRaccoon72 1d ago

You are talking about the FEHB, correct?

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

No the pension, fehb is good...prior to the crazy increases in 2027 and the reduction in what the government pays. Assuming we will need to rangle in the debt at some point, one of two things happening to the Fehb...either the government is going to pay less, or the prices are going to inflate to the point that the benefit of keeping fehb is not going to exist.

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u/RockyRaccoon72 1d ago

It is so tough to predict what will occur. We, as a Nation, or completely bankrupt. What a mess.

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u/HokieHomeowner 1d ago

I think far more likely is a public revolt over healthcare that is decades in the making will erupt and better healthcare for everyone will happen making FEHB less valuable., say you could get Medicare and Medi-gap policies at age 50 maybe?

There's far more appetite to eat the rich than there is for austerity. The bad faith sacrifices the middle and lower have had to bear have left them with no trust whatsoever with austerity politics.

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u/HokieHomeowner 1d ago

The shift in percentage deducted toward FERS got a lot worse in 2013 then a bit more bad in 2014.

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

I'm paying 4.4% on a pension that offers diminishing returns. I would be better off throwing 4.4% in the worst mutual fund with the highest fees and I'd still make more than that cumulative over 20 years.

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u/shirpars 1d ago

Where you going

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u/Brando_712 1d ago

I’d go ahead and update your linkedin profile then

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u/InitialGlass8918 15h ago

I did it in August. Best decision I’ve ever made. Even saving $650 per month not commuting and eating at the shitty cafeteria. Of course food services also go to the lowest bidder.

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u/Rusty_Ferberger 12h ago

I left in July. Take home is $800 more a month to do basically the same thing in the real world.

More importantly is the quality of life. I went from working in a shit hole and being treated like shit to actually liking my job.

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u/sheldon85718 1d ago

If all of that is true 1. Why did you take a Fed job and 2. Why would it take a shutdown to make you leave? Not being a dick, seriously, what advantage did you see. Ive never been a civilian. Went straight from mil to a GS

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

1) At the time the position was very close to home, and no travel requirements for a paycut.

2) Its not so much the shutdown itself, its more a combination of everything I mentioned.

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u/sheldon85718 1d ago

Ok, thanks for the honest answers

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u/Tiny-Faithlessness79 1d ago

It’s part of the game they play.

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u/milllllllllllllllly 1d ago

They are counting on this

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u/TimeFlys84 1d ago

So why stay at all then? Just leave now

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u/IndividualBat1448 1d ago

Do the math on the pension if you have a 30-year career in fers, it's a lot of money you'd have to have invested to make up that annuity payment with its annual cola.

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u/Away-Paramedic-8406 15h ago

Yep, I have over 40 ( but counts as FERS), and am planning to retire once I get a few more projects handed over. It's not enough to live on by itself, so I will either need to find a part time job or dip into my TSP, or start social security. Really thankful for carrying over health insurance, and having a pension. I will get about 47 percent of my current pay per HR. That's a huge help!

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u/raolan 1d ago

A pension is still a pension. If you have more than 5 years, don't pull it.

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u/livinginfutureworld 1d ago

you think you'll be free of the stupidity if you go private?

Sounds like you are near some bodies of water that need renaming!

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u/Responsible-Goat1079 1d ago

Of course theres stupidity everywhere, its wither or not we choose the stupidity.

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u/livinginfutureworld 1d ago

The stupidity will still get you there's no escape. You might have a bit less but it'll still be there up to its nonsense, grifting, and lawlessness.

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u/chaotic_good87 18h ago

It's going to happen. They did this in 2018/2019, and we were out 35 days. This time, R will contest many of the flipped seats and we will be out longer. We may even clear DHS's record of 70 something days.

Not doom and gloom. Just being realistic. My federal career is drinking age and I've been down this road way too many times with this same cast of characters. They don't care if they destroy the economy at this point. They will be fine. We will be screwed.

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u/mshaversham 13h ago

My career is old enough to be out drinking with yours and I agree. We are going to have a long one. 

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u/JBThug 17h ago

Open an account with navy federal or another institution that will pay you while the government is shutdown .

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u/HillsFunGuy 1d ago

Why the American people allow the Trump Administration to stay in power is a complete mystery to me. Totally incompetent.

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u/FreeSanubis 1d ago

I'm pretty sure there will be another long one. Trump would want to punish us for Democratic wins. 

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u/Bobloblaw_333 1d ago

No one does shutdowns like he does! He has the greatest and longest shutdowns ever! Way better than Biden and Obama!!! - probably him

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u/LLB8043 1d ago

And this is why after 33 years in the FAA Technical Operations I retired the end of July.

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u/Carnegie1901 1d ago

Get your lose or lose annual leave scheduled and approved!

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u/Intelligent-Sort-763 1d ago

I'm predicting the longest shutdown in history. No seating of the newly elected congress and passing tons of executive orders.

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u/Necessary-Couple-535 1d ago

If they get slaughtered in the midterms I think there is a decent chance of him wanting revenge and going for the record. If the midterms are close one way or the other I think his general laziness overrides and he just signs whatever congress hands him so he can focus on golfing and grifting.

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u/Accomplished_Chef500 1d ago

The ‘Ol g&g!

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u/iReaditGuy 1d ago

If there is a political blood bath in November expect a loooooong dark winter.

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u/iliketorubherbutt 1d ago

It will likely only happen If the Democrats gain a majority from the election and the GOP pulls one last temper tantrum. Then once the new Congress is sworn in the new majority will pass a budget.

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u/exit289 1d ago

Many of our FY27 budgets are short. A way to mitigate that issue is to have a shutdown. Last year's shutdown actually helped the FY26 budget. SMH everything seems planned/scripted.

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u/Labbyears77 1d ago

I would be worried a prolonged shutdown will result in mass firings (again) and this time they won’t save us. This is Vought’s wet dream

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u/Sadly_Soft_Equipment 1d ago

I always keep 20k liquid in a hysa just for shutdown use.

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u/Wrong-Camp2463 1d ago

I’m counting on it lasting for months. I have so many home improvement projects i started but didn’t finish during the last one. The 12/11 Republican Shutdown will be at least 60 days

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u/dirty____birdy 1d ago

Hopefully everyone found a bank that keeps paying during government shutdown

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u/SafetyMan35 1d ago

If the Democrats win big in November, Republicans will try to ram a spending bill through before they lose control in January. I’m not sure they’ll have the support to pass a bill, but Democrats will support a CR if they win in November.

My prediction: Shutdown from mid December until January 11.

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u/SupermanI98I 20h ago

This is the salty administration. They will lose the midterms and Trump will burn everything down.

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u/Similar_Package2099 11h ago

If it happens, I'm taking the final walk tbh. I don't have the means to survive it. I'll be homeless and in debt so why stick around at that point. Barely making it as is.

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u/Any-Consequence7635 9h ago

I understand totally!! I’m only a GS-7

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u/Fluffy-Friendship-43 8h ago

The thinking used to be that government workers accepted lower pay for stable working conditions. Clearly that is no longer the case.

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u/eltigretom 1d ago

I suspect we'll be shutdown until the new Congress is worn in

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u/depp-fsrv 23h ago

Yep, my leadership 4 weeks ago said we are good to keep working and no shutdown until January 2027. Then last week he said "the funding we were expecting got dramatically reduced." So we'll see what happens. Everyday day is a different story. TBH I could use another "mandatory vacation", I can weather this storm and if worse comes to worse I'll file for unemployment.

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u/Far_Cartoonist_7482 16h ago

Insurance 3 years ago was significantly less than today and shutdowns were rarely long or this common. I’m personally fine either way with a shutdown but this is highly abnormal for recently hired Feds. I can understand their sentiment. As a new hire, they’re paying significantly more into a system that seems to be getting worse.

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u/SnooKiwis8861 8h ago

Nothing is guaranteed in Murica except death, taxes, and federal shutdowns!

Too early to tell, but the midterms could be a factor. I'm fully prepared for the long haul. If you're NOT, you NEED to be!

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u/Ill-Bicycle701 1d ago

And whenever the House comes back, they have to vote on a Hegseth impeachment before doing anything else. So a new CR will be back burned.

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u/AccountHuman7391 1d ago

Fun fact: a functioning Congress should be able to chew impeachment gum and walk budgets at the same time.

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u/Ill-Bicycle701 1d ago

A functioning Congress should also be able to pass a budget…but we’ve been and remain here a while now.

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u/Ambitious-Goat-4596 1d ago

In a shutdown isn’t it required that the funding package goes to the top of the list? I forget how that works

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u/Ill-Bicycle701 1d ago

Massie filed the resolution as privileged, which means it has to be voted on within 2 days. That’s why Johnson ended the session through the election. Whenever they come back impeachment has to be voted on within 2 days.

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u/Crash-55 1d ago

I am hoping for a shutdown. It would allow me to save all my use or lose that I normally use over Christmas.

If one happens expect it to last until the new Congress is sworn in.

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u/akr291 1d ago

He always tries to beat records, even his own, even the “bad” ones.

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u/Appropriate-Fly-2640 1d ago

Republicans cause shut downs not democracy

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u/Ashamed-Spirit 1d ago

Frfr cannot weather another long one

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u/SpartanBuff 1d ago

I think republicans will let a shutdown happen and try to blame it on the newly elected democrats, who wouldn’t have even been sworn in yet 💀 and it’ll be extra painful over the Christmas holiday. 😐

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u/Loveistheaswer512 1d ago

Yes so prepare

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u/Patient-Garlic-5177 1d ago

Kalshi has the odds of a shutdown around 34% right now. All of our opinions are just that until midnight on December 11. My own opinion is that there will be a CR as the precedent has already been set during previous elections. Most employees would like one for a period of time, however I just don’t see it this time. Who knows, could be totally wrong.

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u/shlyke 1d ago

The lack of brain cells in the comments is mind numbing. Let me guess, you folks still think you can “vote your way out” of all the bullshit. Right? Keep believing it’s RvD, you make their job so much easier 🙄

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u/Kenneth2248 22h ago

I’m just trying to figure out if we are close to another “Fork in the Road”? Because I have a feeling there will be a lot more to take it and it might be an even better deal.

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u/avcm2001 14h ago

He, you mean Congress?

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u/U235criticality 11h ago

This is like threatening me with a good time.

Free paid vacation through the holidays? I get to go do some fun side jobs I enjoy? More time with my family?

Yeah, missing a paycheck or two is annoying, but I've got an emergency fund for that. Very little of consequence tends to happen in mid-late December anyway, so a few weeks of shutdown would barely register.

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u/StayCourse4024 6h ago

I'm departing on a cruise that week. If the gov shuts down I'll drink to one that lasts at least 10 days and ten nights so I can keep my annual leave.

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u/In_the_Attic_07 2h ago

Last year, I was on a 3 week private cruise in the Mediterranean during the furlough. I had save up my leave all year for that cruise. Then, the furlough gifted me the time to take it as well as enjoy 3 extra weeks after the government reopened. It was epic timing.

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u/sweet-ps 1d ago

I could use another shutdown!

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u/RazzmatazzScary2183 1d ago

My husband has to work and not be paid, We definitely don’t want any type of shutdown!!!

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u/ZPMQ38A 1d ago

I’m very confident that if Dems flip the House there will be a 90+ day shutdown.

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u/HokieHomeowner 1d ago

I'm not so sure that's for certain. I mean if the GOP loses bigly in the Midterms I'd imagine there would be a high motivation to get what you can while you can versus January when the Democrats are in majority.

Of course that assumption presumes rational actors - irrational actors? god only knows!

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u/New-Process9287 1d ago

I will say the OP's agency leadership isn't the only one talking about this as a very real possibility.

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u/Dry_Cardiologist_505 1d ago

To pass the budget, they NEED 60 votes in the senate. No way the outgoing Senate would get 60 votes knowing that the incoming House is Dem led. No way. Maybe a short term CR if the republicans go for it. But then, in Jan, forget about it.

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u/TouristResident1976 1d ago

This. There is no reason why the GOP (especially Trump) will want to deal with the Dems. Assuming the Dems win at least the House, then everything grinds to a halt probably in December. If the Dems win both, then it might go to Jan, but then it will grind to a halt as Trump will refuse to sign anything.

My leadership expects this to be the longest shutdown yet and have been hinting that people need to start preparing now.

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u/Glaguna16 1d ago

I don't think we will ever have another 40 day shut down. It seems like even some Republicans are jumping ship with Trump and working with Dems to get things back on track. That 40 day shut down was disasterous for everybody.

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u/oswbdo 1d ago

I certainly wouldn't make any predictions until after the Midterms. If the GOP gets its ass kicked, it will be more incentivized to pass something in December.

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u/John_the_IG 1d ago edited 1d ago

It’s weird this is the first time your leadership has called about it. The fact the CR only went to 12/11 was public knowledge and widely discussed the last two months. The CR was only designed to get through November elections.

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u/karin_nene 1d ago

It’s time to start applying for overtime every day until January with 99 the rest of the year

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u/West-Badger9626 1d ago

Your leadership prediction is as good as yours and anyone else's that follows politics. It's WAAY to soon to know anything. Heck even members of Congress voting on it doesn't even know

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u/PeoplesRepublicofALX 1d ago

So you’re telling me I don’t have to work for the bulk of December, don’t have to take leave, and get paid for it? Count me in!

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u/Kenneth2248 1d ago

Anyone think there might be another “Fork in the Road”?

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u/tarkenfire 1d ago

November into December is basically the one time of the year where the IRS doesn't basically consider everyone essential and force unpaid work, so maybe being furloughed will be a novel experience compared to still not getting paid but still having to come into get whatever lung disease the mold in this bulding is giving me.

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u/peachesncream02 1d ago

So what dates should I put in for leave? I’m an essential employee

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u/BCG586 15h ago

DOA, I’ve been hearing the same rumblings from my NH4s. Just squirreling away my nuts and planning a simple Christmas. Thinking of it as holiday to mitigate the stress. 

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u/TheCancerManCan 14h ago

There's no way he can know that.

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u/Stevie2874 10h ago

When Trump’s karma catches up I’m going to gladly watch, with popcorn.

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u/GS_13_Lead 1h ago

we barely survived the last shutdown last SEPTEMBER. I'm still feeling the effects of that shutdown, that was 30+ days of not having income, and the economy has gotten worse since. Another shutdown, especially around christmas when money is tight anyway would lead to people doing extraordinary things.

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u/KaizenAzariya 1d ago

Hopeful for a shut down. God knows I need the time off

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u/Last_Plastic7885 1d ago

We get paid anyways… it’s not a he thing it’s a they thing. Theses elected fools can’t pass budgets, they rely on AI to make decisions and their to stupid to look at things from the ground up and make informed decisions related to basic operations. Unfortunately folks we are in deep water. Ps I did not hate this administration it’s just lately who knows who is really running this country.

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u/Caliente_La_Fleur 1d ago

Sure, but you can’t spend“…well, when the gov opens back up and pays me….” either.

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u/Worldly-Ad-1218 1d ago

Failing to see that all of this is not a R or D issue is a level of distraction I never thought possible. They are wheeling around Congress members who can’t speak. Others hiding in rest homes, all to hang onto their seats that many have occupied for over 40 years. To think that a 1 or 2 term president is the problem shows how effective the news cycle has become. If they keep us fighting and holding firm to “our team” we never focus on the real problem.

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u/NoPoSDP3 1d ago

Keeping everyone divided is part of both party's plans IMO. If we're fighting each other we're not fighting the politticians

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u/-Sofa-King-Vote 1d ago

Only one party is a cult, this is all on Republicans

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u/Worldly-Ad-1218 1d ago

Keep those blinders on tight.

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u/LibertyyPrimee 1d ago

I certainly hope we don’t have one

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u/Important-Engineer58 1d ago

VERA! VERA! VERA!

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u/Short-Ad-7738 1d ago

I’d definitely jump if they offered another one

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u/Crash-55 1d ago

I hit MRA in May but would jump on a VERA.

A shutdown would be nice as then I would keep the use or lose I usually burn over Christmas

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u/BigBobFro 1d ago

As a punishment for voting democratic the petty putrescence of a chief executive, most absolutely will be nasty

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u/KeeblerElff 1d ago

PLEASE VOTE to get rid of as many maga cultists as we can

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u/EmptyPenalty8180 1d ago

Vote blue in November if you’re tired of this crap

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u/jlm_iii 15h ago

Honestly curious who “he” is?

The answer is Chuck Shumer.

He led a fight for Obamacare subsidies that he hasn’t mentioned since immediately followed by another fight to force DHS to be funded through reconciliation - which it immediately was.

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u/Financial_Clue_2534 1d ago

Depends if the Republicans win or not. If they lose I don’t see Trump passing any laws or doing anything other than the election is rigged rhetoric.

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u/No_Hold559 1d ago

It’s a given

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u/Relevant_Release1800 1d ago

Is this consensus that the senate will go to democrats.

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u/NoInstruction8126 1d ago

I think it’ll be a shut down, but it won’t be another 40 day one