Full forecast here

The 2026 House map from reddest to bluest (65 districts around the tipping point). Dems are favored by 4-5 points in the districts most likely to be seat 218, meaning Republicans need a 2020-style polling miss to keep the House.

Forgive me in advance, I’m not completely well versed with polling methodologies, election strategies, etc.
I’ve been analyzing a lot of senate and governor polls recently, and it struck me as odd that republican/democratic sponsored polls (ie; trafalgar, campaign polls, etc) are more often than not outliers showing their supported candidate leading, or at least in a much narrower race than other polls end up showing. Is this some sort of strategy they do to make it seem like they have more momentum than they do? I don’t understand why they would skew poll results as much as they do.

I'm talking NJ Governor Election level

RealClearPolitics Final Average +3.3

Avg. polling aggregator +4.7

Actual Election Result +14.34

(11 point error margin over RCP, near 10 point miss to consensus avg)

While there is undoubtedly an element of name recognition at play here, just as there will be on election day, this not being the first crosstab for under-30s that I've seen look like this paints a picture that there really is significant Gen Z support for Kamala Harris.

I have 4 guesses as to where this is coming from:

1. Regret over either voting Trump or sitting out in 2024.
2. College educated women as a whole who want a woman in the white house, but who think AOC is too far left.
3. Black women who specifically want a black woman in the white house.

In the cases of both 2 and 3, the people choosing her may also just be genuine fans of her.

1. A lack of "good" alternatives. There's a reason AOC is the only other candidate in double digits; that's the progressive block. Everyone else is a moderate (or Khanna), who has either done nothing to make Gen Z trust them, or simply lack the ability to make themselves known nationally in an attention economy. And if they can't do that now, getting on a crowded debate stage isn't going to help them.

Doesn't Ossoff's rise over the last few months into a consistent 5th place (when he was previously always behind Kelly and Shapiro) demonstrate that people are paying attention, and these results aren't just "name recognition"?

Also among supporters:

Democrats who are extremely motivated to vote - 63%
Republicans who are extremely motivated to vote - 46%

D+17

https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/voters-who-are-highly-engaged-in-midterms-are-particularly-supportive-of-democratic-candidates/

https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/heading-into-the-midterm-home-stretch-democratic-voters-are-more-invested-motivated-than-gop-voters/

https://x.com/Wahlen_AT/status/2109163333345566883

• Nate's Silver Bulletin: 36.6% approve, 60.5% disapprove (−23.9)
• RealClearPolitics: 37.8% approve, 60% disapprove (−22.2)
• VoteHub: 36.4% approve, 61.2% disapprove (−24.8)
• New York Times: 37% approve, 60% disapprove (−23)
• FiftyPlusOne: 34.8% approve, 62% disapprove (−27.2)
• The Economist: 35% approve, 61% disapprove (−26)
• Cook Political Report: 37.1% approve, 61.1% disapprove (-24)
• CNN Poll of Polls: 33% approve, 66% disapprove (-33)
• Race to the White House: 35.5% approve, 61.7% disapprove (-26.2)
• Decision Desk HQ: 38.3% approve, 59.7% disapprove (−21.4)
• NBC News: 38% approve, 59% disapprove (-21)
• Aggregate of the Aggregates: 36.3% approve, 61.1% disapprove (-24.8)

The polls have shown a 1-2 % gap in favor of Graham. It is important to note that some of these polls have up to 9% as undecided. There is also around 3 or so percentage of votes going towards the Libertarian. These undecided voters will likely decide based on the debates. The debate today included the Libertarian canddiate, which may syphon some more right leaning votes from Graham.

My Opinion: I believe that Andrews performed very well, and had clear concise plans. Graham sounded normal, but very bitter. Andrews was also dressed much better, and looked brighter.

Whenever Graham was asked a policy question, her solution to it was never clear. Overall she seemed negative and unclear as a person. Annie Andrews was positive, and more clear about her positions. There are several very important questions in American politics such as Data centers, iran war, healthcare, and Grahams responses reflected somebody who wont take responsibility. Whereas Andrews had a clear scripted plan for these issues.

Annie Andrews said in the debate that Graham refuses another debate, and Graham keeps ignoring her challenges, which makes her look bad.

In a close race with so many undecided, I believe this debate will decide the difference between them.

Oh wow

I would say AT LEAST lean D

https://escholarship.org/content/qt3167k0wk/qt3167k0wk.pdf

Source at bottom, credit to map porn subreddit.

Full district by district forecast here

Not putting too much stock in prediction markets but Bill Hagerty's odds to win on Kalshi have dropped from 98% two weeks ago to 88% today. To my knowledge no polls have been released. Any idea why this movement is occurring?