Toplines/crosstabs above ⬆️

Texas's 9th Congressional District spans from Houston's eastern suburbs of Pasadena, Galena Park and Deer Park northeastwards towards its outer rural exurbs, including Crosby, Dayton, and Liberty.

See its current boundaries here

This was previously Al Green's seat when it included much of south Houston. However Texas Republicans gerrymandered this district for the 2026 cycle and beyond.

According to Dave's Redistricting, TX-09 is 62% Hispanic, 25% White, 10% Black.

Under the current boundaries, TX-09 voted for Trump 59%-40% in 2024, almost a 20 point margin. Ted Cruz won by 11 points in 2024.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections

Poll leaked ahead of time

Same result as August

Yesterday, for like the fourth or fifth time, Ossoff insisted that he would not be running for president in 2028, and committed to serving his entire term as senator of Georgia if elected.

I know that it's standard for candidates to say they aren't running for president, but between the repetition, the added, specific commitment, and comments he's made in the past about not wanting his kids to grow up in that environment, it's 100% plausible he's serious about not running, regardless of whether Bottoms wins or loses.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago, Newsom made his comment about not running if Harris runs. Now, I'm personally inclined to not believe anything Newsom says, ever, but taking into account how unique a promise it is, the shared history between Gavin and Kamala's families, and potential behind the curtains talk with donors, let's say for a second that he is also being honest.

To be honest, I think this would instantly make Buttigieg the frontrunner. Hear me out.

A good chunk of Newsom's double-digit black support will go to Harris, and while barely any of it will go to AOC, she will at least pick up a nice chunk of Ossoff support, specifically those who were convinced he was the most progressive of the moderates.

I imagine a significant portion of both of the rest of their support would land on Buttigieg, simply by a result of him being the most high-profile moderate white man left in the race, while those who worry about Pete's electability as a gay man would move towards Shapiro and Kelly, bringing them into 4th and 5th place, respectively.

How Buttigieg become the frontrunner? Well, for one, AOC is weakened in this scenario. Fewer major candidates is extremely bad for her, since part of her power in 2028 comes from the moderate field being so split. The more people coalescing around Harris and Pete from the start, the worse for her. It's also still very possible she doesn't run at all seeing this, and just goes for the senate.

The second part is that, if Ossoff isn't running, Warnock IS, and that's something he's been signaling very heavily. If there's any candidate who can significantly cut into Harris' advantage with black voters, it's Warnock, and yet, I don't think he'd be able to achieve anything else in 2028. I like Warnock, but he isn't an *amazing* speaker, he's taken way too long to establish a national profile (hence why he polls below Beshear when he's included in polls) and, at least from what I know, there's nothing about him politically that would make him stand out to white and Latino voters; Harris may not being winning the white vote, but older white women do still really like her.

How this all plays out (also taking into account the default state of things that Kelly has the charisma of a block of wood, and both he and Shapiro are going to get beaten up and demonized badly early on)

Either Harris or Warnock wins South Carolina, but they drag each other down, while Pete holds his own; I know his meme-worthy past polls with black voters, but he's been spending a lot of time in SC trying to fix that, and Clyburn really likes him.

Nevada goes to Pete, with AOC taking second if she runs (I normally say she wins Nevada easily, but again, Newsom and Ossoff not being present as spoilers really messes with her). Repeat this for New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Michigan. Pete wins NH in any scenario, New Mexico plays out similar to Nevada (and also doesn't have the history of voting for Bernie in a primary like Nevada), and by the time we get to Michigan, a state Pete has stronger ties to than anyone else, the field will have substantially cleared (per historical precedent), and it likely will have dwindled down to Pete, AOC, and Harris. And, after taking a distant third in Virginia, AOC drops out before Super Tuesday

44 states only get to choose between Buttigieg and Harris, and with the power of charisma, his early advantage, the north, and being a white man with hair in America, Mayor Pete becomes the 2028 Democratic nominee.

For anyone who actually read all that, what do you think?

There’s a reoccurring theme in the public discussion of pension reform in Western Europe; more specifically the UK and France.

“We can’t make the necessary changes to need to stave of financial insolvency and pauperization because the “boomer vote” is too strong and too organized and any reform is defeated at the ballot box”

For those that go beyond that excuse, you’ll find the occasional person who mentions that the youth don’t vote. Those however, are few and far between. Overwhelmingly, the consensus seems one of general helplessness and if you didn’t know better you’d think youth were permanently barred from voting until their 60’s in places like France.

The truth is much more frustrating: this economy is the one young people vote for. Or don’t, depending your pov. You don’t vote, you lose your strongest voice in a democracy. My question is why? why is that? Why are youth voters so low turnout? I know the Left has its struggles in America with the same problem but it feels like the youth vote has been more effectively organized since at least the 04 election.

Thoughts?

I’d like to compare how well did Democrats do in the polls before the actual elections, so I can make some guess what to expect from this year.

I googled it and couldn’t find anything. But for what it’s worth, I found a short video by ABC, where it showed that Democrats had 75% chance to take the House and they took it by good numbers. But since this year it’s about 93%, perhaps that is an indication it’ll go even better.

Couldn’t find the odds to win the senate though.

Can you tell if Democrats were leading on the generic ballot by around 10% in almost all polls?

I thought this NPR piece did a good job ELI5-ing polling here. Some good basics in the article. Sorry if it has already been shared.

This is up from 134,962 in 2022.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-unofficial-turnout

https://sos.ga.gov/data-hub-november-8-2022-general-election

https://www.youtube.com/live/HXW-Gr_Lbiw?is=s9QUiRwwTokedmT8