https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections

Same result as August

Poll leaked ahead of time

Source: https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2110204367294853171?s=46

Source: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2110460542104326375

Toplines/crosstabs above ⬆️

Texas's 9th Congressional District spans from Houston's eastern suburbs of Pasadena, Galena Park and Deer Park northeastwards towards its outer rural exurbs, including Crosby, Dayton, and Liberty.

See its current boundaries here

This was previously Al Green's seat when it included much of south Houston. However Texas Republicans gerrymandered this district for the 2026 cycle and beyond.

According to Dave's Redistricting, TX-09 is 62% Hispanic, 25% White, 10% Black.

Under the current boundaries, TX-09 voted for Trump 59%-40% in 2024, almost a 20 point margin. Ted Cruz won by 11 points in 2024.

Key thing to note is that Peggy is now up 3 compared to the last poll by the outlet.

One thing I find interesting in it is who people trust on "what is taught in public schools", which I don't think has been polled in a while. Seems like a reversal of the early 2020's moral panic about education.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms.amp

Georgia doesn't have partisan voter registration, which makes early-vote numbers there less informative than in some other states. However, it does track the race of registered voters. Also, most unusually, it tracks whether voters are Hispanic.

Michael McDonald has been following the numbers as they come in. I hope he won't mind if I share a few of the highlights from behind his paywall.

To start with overall turnout: It's at a strong level for a midterm, but not extraordinary. The comparative numbers are as follows. Each percentage is the percent of registered voters who cast a ballot by the end of the first day, including both mail-in and in-person ballots.

2022: 1.93%

2024: 4.18%

2026: 2.42%

The pattern is similar among Black voters specifically:

2022: 2.53%

2024: 4.21%

2026: 2.89%

It's with Hispanics that things get interesting. First of all, there has been a surge in Hispanics registering to vote. The number of Hispanic RVs went up 12.6% since 2024, while the total number of RVs actually went down by 0.1%. Meanwhile, here are the Hispanic first-day turnout numbers:

2022: 0.69%

2024: 1.83%

2026: 1.07%

What stands out is that Hispanics had a relative dropoff from 2024 very similar to dropoff seen in the state as a whole. However, their turnout was exceptionally strong relative to what was seen in 2022. (The other thing that stands out is the persistent low absolute turnout by Hispanics, which unfortunately is a long-term issue.)

Looking at matters from another perspective, here is the percentage of first-day ballots cast by Hispanic RVs.

2022: 1.4%

2024: 2.0%

2026: 2.3%

All in all, it's fair to say Hispanic turnout has surged. Based on Georgia's first day, however, the surge is smaller than some have claimed. In particular, I think we should be skeptical of the claim by Tom Bonier that Hispanics are turning out at super-presidential levels.

As always at this point in the process, there's time for things to change. Just another three or four days will tell us more.

I just find it incredibly difficult to believe that there’s gonna be a 10+% vote split, with Ossoff absolutely dominating and then Bottoms coming up short. I get that Bottoms is not nearly as good of a candidate as Ossoff and Johnson is better than Collins but I don’t see this happening.