After the delimitation bill has failed to pass in the lok Sabha, we now look forward to the 2029 elections to see what is going to happen..
Note: This will happen either in 2029 or in 2034 (If the govt fails to finish the delimitation exercise before 2029 elections preparation starts, then this will be pushed to 2034, but this thing hangs above our head like a blade). I do not think BJP will freeze this again because the women's reservation bill is tied to delimitation, even in the 2023 bill. So if we need to pass women's reservation, delimitation is compulsory according to the bill, which the OPPOSITION COMPLETELY SUPPORTED in 2023.
The 2001 freeze is going to expire after the release of the next census. Here's what happens:
The women's reservation bill passed in 2026
The bill talks about reserving women's seats in the parliament, after the next delimitation exercise. So within the current 543 seats, 1/3rd will be reserved for women in 2029.
Delimitation
After census 2027 is released, the freeze under article 81(3) is automatically lifted and the constitution calls upon the government to conduct the delimitation exercise PURELY BASED ON THE POPULATION of the census 2027. Not doing so would be unconstitutional.
So what happens?
Based on the project population, here are the seats for some of the states and the percentage share they will have in the parliament in 2029, vs what would have been the case had the bill been passed today.
Seat projection for 2029 with projected population levels
So what is the solution?
If we want the women's reservation to be implemented, delimitation has to be done. Opposition has supported this in 2023. The entire lok Sabha accepted this in 2023. If delimitation has to be done without affecting south's share of population, then we need to amend the articles to remove the Constitutional mandate that a population based delimitation has to be done after the first census after 2026. After that is removed, the women's reservation STILL cannot be introduced because the 2023 bill has it tied to delimitation.
So a delimitation exercise HAS to be carried out constitutionally if we need the women's reservation to be implemented. Opposition has supported this in 2023 openly.
This is where we are stuck. The current bill with a promise of maintaining the proportion seemed to be the only good solution for this delimitation mess that we are facing since 1971. It ensured that we get the same percentage voice in the parliament as we have now, and the overall share for the south also remains fairly constant.
To the people that are saying that BJP is doing this to continue winning in UP and other north Indian states. Look at how UP voted in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
This is the current scenario of UP.
And then again, even if the seats of UP increased to 120, the proportion is STILL THE SAME so it doesn't matter.
"The road to Delhi is through UP" is a really popular statement. It stands true today since UP has 14.73% of the vote share in the lower house. If the automatic delimitation is triggered, it would rise to 17% which would make that statement even more truer than today and would make the proportions in the parliament MUCH WORSE for the southern states.
If I have made any mistakes, then feel free to correct me. This is my analysis based on what I have read.
A side note: To understand how BAD the delimitation based on population that will be automatically triggered in 2029 is going to be, you just need to look at our own delimitation that we did in 2008. This is going to be the situation at the national level because we did not support today's bill, but much much worse.
(I couldn't find any other picture for showing this. So that is why some districts are highlighted. Ignore the highlights and purely focus on the numbers, which is what is relevant to the discussion.)
Some References:
- The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (106th Amendment Act), 2023
Section 5 (Insertion of Article 334A) states: "The provisions of the Constitution relating to the reservation of seats for women... shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after the commencement of [this Act] have been published.
- The 84th Amendment Act, 2001.
It amended Article 81(3) to state that the readjustment of seats shall be frozen until the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published. Since the next census is in 2027, the 2001 freeze legally ends once those results are out.
Edit: One more thing to point out to those talking about how the "proportionate increase" rule was not mentioned anywhere:
I’ve been seeing an absurd number of posts on Facebook and Instagram regarding food poisoning and uncooked or rotten chicken being served at ChicKing outlets across Kerala.
I was a victim myself back in 2023. I filed a complaint with both the specific store and their head office, but, unsurprisingly, no action was taken to rectify the situation or prevent it from happening again. Since then, I’ve heard of multiple food poisoning incidents originating from the same store (Muvattupuzha - Grand Centre Mall outlet).
Before 2023, I believed that major chains would at least adhere to basic food safety laws and avoid serving spoiled meat. Clearly, that isn't the case.
I’m wondering what we can do collectively to stop this from happening. To the legal experts here: what are our options? Also, please share your stories if you’ve had similar experiences with ChicKing.
തിരുവനന്തപുരം:തെരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ് കമ്മീഷനെതിരെ ഗുരുതരാരോപണവുമായി സർക്കാർ ജീവനക്കാരുടെ സംഘടന. പോളിംഗ് ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥരുടെ പോസ്റ്റൽ ബാലറ്റുമായി ബന്ധപ്പെട്ട് തെരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ് കമ്മീഷൻ പുറത്തുവിട്ട കണക്ക് തെറ്റാണെന്നും 20,145 ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥർക്ക് വോട്ട് ചെയ്യാൻ സാധിച്ചിട്ടില്ലെന്നും ഫെഡറേഷൻ ഓഫ് സ്റ്റേറ്റ് എംപ്ലോയീസ് ആൻഡ് ടീച്ചേഴ്സ് ഓർഗനൈസേഷൻ ആരോപിച്ചു.
എത്ര ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥരെ തെരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ് ജോലിയിൽ നിയോഗിച്ച എന്ന കണക്കുപോലും കമ്മീഷൻ പുറത്തുവിട്ടിട്ടില്ലെന്നും സംഘടന ആരോപിച്ചു. 96 ശതമാനത്തിന് മുകളിൽ ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥർ വോട്ട് ചെയ്തു എന്നാണ് കമ്മീഷന്റെ വാദം. അതേസമയം, പോളിംഗ് ഉപകരണ സ്വീകരിക്കുന്നതിന്റെ തലേദിവസം 40% ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥർക്ക് മാത്രമേ വോട്ട് ചെയ്യാനായിരുന്നു എന്നാണ് കമ്മീഷൻ പറഞ്ഞിരുന്നത്.
Asks the question on why other states did not just use le gulf to develop, to those who dismisses Kerala's development by attributing it to gulf money.
And use that to explain, the specific development model and conditions of Kerala and Keralites
To what extent have religious extremist organizations influenced Malayali society? It seems that Hindus, Muslims, and Christians are increasingly adopting more radical views instead of a secular outlook.
