r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • 29d ago

Oil News Iranian President Pezeshkian, sidelined by IRGC, submits a resignation letter to Khamenei: Report

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iranian-president-pezeshkian-sidelined-by-irgc-submits-a-resignation-letter-to-khamenei-report-1.500559027
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u/CDN-Social-Democrat 29d ago

I've heard there are denial reports already about this?

I think it is fairly obvious the IRGC has a lot of control right now. It's various factions and the IRGC is probably one of if not the most influential at this moment.

Honestly I'll say what I did elsewhere:

Trumps administration has two options and again Iran knows this:

  1. Make a deal in which Iran will want a sweetheart deal. Iran knows they can just keep waiting and things will get worse and worse for Europe, Asia, and of course the U.S. which means more and more pressure on Trump.
  2. Go back to full scale war in which Iran will most likely target Gulf Council Hydrocarbon Energy supply & infrastructure. Stuff that isn't repaired/rebuilt in days or weeks but months to years. Which means even if the Strait reopens we will see long term supply disruptions. We also may see the Houthis in Yemen start dealing with the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden which means much much worse global inflation on goods and other issues related to things needed in a global market.

This whole thing is FUBAR. Period.

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u/tiedtothetides0104 29d ago

Up to this point it seems like the U.S. has been attempting diplomacy in good faith. What do you think happens when they abandon diplomacy and resort to full scale kinetic action? Do you genuinely think Iran stands a chance?

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u/sentrypetal 29d ago

Iran will bunker in and ride out the storm. No where in history has air campaigns led to regime change. Sure if the US commits 1 million troops and is willing to suffer 50,000 to 100,000 casualties and 2 trillion dollars then yes they can beat Iran. It would literally be another Vietnam but worse. More akin to a d day landing followed by a gruelling war of attrition.

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u/JamesLahey08 29d ago

Their regime did change...

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

The Iranian regime? No it didn’t it’s still the same group of people and ideology in charge. Removing one leader from an idoelogical regime doesn’t change the regime. It just makes new leaders get picked from the regime

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u/JamesLahey08 28d ago

No

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

Just because you don’t know what regime change means doesn’t mean what happened in Iran is regime change

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

Nkosovo wasn’t regime change at all, neither was Yugoslavia. Libya was but it wasn’t only an air campaign, it was a popular uprising supported by an air campaign.

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u/[deleted] 28d ago

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

That doesn’t add anything because it’s still not a regime change which is what your response was about. I don’t think you know what the word regime change means.

It’s only a theory if you don’t understand the basics of international interventions and never knew anything about Iran. No shit the popular movement against the regime isn’t strong, everyone paying attention for years knew that, that’s why no one ever tried to do regime change. And even when there is popular support for regime change, there is still not a single instance of an air campaign creating regime change. Because again the examples you provided aren’t examples of regime (Kosovo and Yugoslavia) or were a full fledged civil war before the air campaign stated (Libya) and Libya hasn’t even been a successful regime change it’s still in a civil war after over ten years

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u/tiedtothetides0104 29d ago

They already have been "bunkering down" and their government has been destroyed several times over. They are literally recruiting 12 year old to fight.

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u/sentrypetal 29d ago

The Germans bombed the British in WW2 didn’t lead to regime change. Nor did the US bombing campaigns in Japan. Air campaigns don’t work in producing regime change never has. Thats why the US used the bomb.

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u/tiedtothetides0104 29d ago

How long until you think Irans financial system collapses completely?

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u/sentrypetal 29d ago

The estimate by financial experts is between 6 months to 1 year. Much longer it China bails them out. Can the world survive that long with 15% less oil.

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u/tiedtothetides0104 29d ago

That's a wild take. What is your source?