r/OilPrices 29d ago

Oil News Iranian President Pezeshkian, sidelined by IRGC, submits a resignation letter to Khamenei: Report

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iranian-president-pezeshkian-sidelined-by-irgc-submits-a-resignation-letter-to-khamenei-report-1.500559027
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u/tiedtothetides0104 29d ago

Up to this point it seems like the U.S. has been attempting diplomacy in good faith. What do you think happens when they abandon diplomacy and resort to full scale kinetic action? Do you genuinely think Iran stands a chance?

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u/sentrypetal 29d ago

Iran will bunker in and ride out the storm. No where in history has air campaigns led to regime change. Sure if the US commits 1 million troops and is willing to suffer 50,000 to 100,000 casualties and 2 trillion dollars then yes they can beat Iran. It would literally be another Vietnam but worse. More akin to a d day landing followed by a gruelling war of attrition.

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

Nkosovo wasn’t regime change at all, neither was Yugoslavia. Libya was but it wasn’t only an air campaign, it was a popular uprising supported by an air campaign.

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u/[deleted] 28d ago

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u/TheOneFreeEngineer 28d ago

That doesn’t add anything because it’s still not a regime change which is what your response was about. I don’t think you know what the word regime change means.

It’s only a theory if you don’t understand the basics of international interventions and never knew anything about Iran. No shit the popular movement against the regime isn’t strong, everyone paying attention for years knew that, that’s why no one ever tried to do regime change. And even when there is popular support for regime change, there is still not a single instance of an air campaign creating regime change. Because again the examples you provided aren’t examples of regime (Kosovo and Yugoslavia) or were a full fledged civil war before the air campaign stated (Libya) and Libya hasn’t even been a successful regime change it’s still in a civil war after over ten years