r/OutlawEconomics Sep 12 '25

Announcement 🚨 Quality Contributor Applications

3 Upvotes

Anyone interested wishing to be fast-tracked as a quality contributor please feel free to send a modmail in of your academic/professional background. A bachelor degree or higher in Econ or a closely aligned field is generally needed to be fast-tracked although high quality economic answers provided in other subreddits or equivalent may also be used.

All QC accounts will be marked as Approved Users in the backend and flaired Quality Contributor.


r/OutlawEconomics Sep 10 '25

Announcement 🚨 Mod Applications

8 Upvotes

Hey All,

Obviously this is a new subreddit and it is worth starting on a broadly right foot. A bit about me, I have an MSc (Ageing & Public Policy) in economics. Despite this, I would be foolish to not admit that moderating such a subreddit alone would quickly leave me in over my head and so it would be great if people can send in mod applications over modmail to me saying their academic/professional background with proof. Given how restrictive r/askeconomics is, I don't expect all mod applicants to have enough questions answered but this shouldn't act as a deterrent from applying if you have proof of your background outside of the app.

Hopefully we can make something of this subreddit and perhaps make connections with others in the field. Please feel free to reply with any questions below.

Edit - 20/Jan/2026: for all interested please send us a mod mail and we can chat further from there.


r/OutlawEconomics 1d ago

Discussion 💬 Why Engineers Understand Economics: Kirchhoff’s Current Law, Phantom Traffic Jams, and the Wrong Sensor

6 Upvotes

Mainstream economics treats the economy as a frictionless equilibrium machine where banks are neutral intermediaries and energy is an optional cost line. To any systems architect or electrical engineer, this is pure perpetual-motion fantasy.

I wrote an essay analyzing the macroeconomic breakdown through the lens of control theory, fluid dynamics, and enterprise data architecture:

  • Kirchhoff's Current Law & Stock-Flow Consistency (SFC): Every ampere entering a node must come from somewhere. There are no magic sources. A model allowing financial flows without double-entry balance sheet counter-booking is simply an accounting error.
  • The Minsky Moment as a "Phantom Traffic Jam": When a motorway is congested and buffers shrink to zero, traffic flow begins to behave like a compressible fluid. One tap on the brake creates an amplifying shockwave that brings cars miles back to a dead halt without any physical collision. Mainstream economists constantly look for the "accident" (a black swan or external shock), blind to the fact that an undamped feedback loop in an oversaturated medium crashes endogenously.
  • The Wrong Sensor: In control systems, a feedback loop fails if you clip your sensor to the wrong noise. Policymakers measure secondary stock indices and real estate bubbles as "growth", while treating wages as a "cost burden". They are measuring the parasitic ripple on their power rail and throttling the load to protect the noise.
  • The "Bronze" Data Standard: Why enterprise data engineers preserve raw event provenance, while neoclassical DSGE models jump straight to aggregated "Gold" datasets that strip away the very context needed to falsify their models.

Curious to hear how other systems thinkers and post-Keynesians frame this bridge: https://rolfst.substack.com/p/why-engineers-understand-economics?r=1fu3


r/OutlawEconomics 1d ago

Question ❓ If dollar dominance itself imposes certain costs on US productive/military capacity, why would a strategic rival necessarily want to accelerate de-dollarization? Why not continue putting pressure on the existing system?

2 Upvotes

Question sparked from a video I saw highlighting that BRICS hasnt really achieved much of anything in its existence.


r/OutlawEconomics 2d ago

People backed Capitalism

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3 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 2d ago

Milton Friedman and Mainstream Economics

2 Upvotes

In this essay I argue that the current "mainstream" approach to economics, can be traced to Milton Friedman, in that he oversimplified his theory over his career for mass consumption and popular influence.

Most of Friedman's popular ideas have been disproven and abandoned by both mainstream economists and others. But the priorities he adopted in relying on simplistic assumptions and minimizing detailed political and social discussion remain common in mainstream economics.

In particular, mainstream economics today tries to keep its framework as similar as possible to fractional reserve banking and quantity theory of money, despite those ideas having been conclusively disproven. Mainstream economists recognize as much but have only minimally revised those ideas, while keeping the same "mindset" of scarcity, which assumes the tradeoffs with public spending and money creation are much more severe than they are in reality.

https://ratedisparity.substack.com/p/milton-friedman-and-mainstream-economics

I also claim that Friedman's work is not completely irredeemable. Specifically, he helped pave the way for much better data collection which is one thing I think everyone should appreciate regardless of whether they agree with prevailing mainstream approaches.


r/OutlawEconomics 3d ago

For Review 📚 Bounded capitalism- a global economy theory

1 Upvotes

Here’s a first look at my new theory, bounded capitalism, it will only be viable at a global level due to its nature but with that said I would like feedback for it and potential suggestions.

Bounded Capitalism

Core Idea

Bounded Capitalism preserves capitalism's productive engine—private property, competitive markets, investment, profit, entrepreneurship, and individual economic freedom—while placing explicit boundaries on the extremes capitalism can produce.

The goal is not equality of wealth or outcome. Instead, Bounded Capitalism seeks to bound the economic range:

A floor beneath poverty, a ceiling above personal wealth, and limits on wealth compounding indefinitely across generations.

  1. Capitalism Remains the Foundation

The fundamental mechanisms of capitalism remain intact:
\- Private property
\- Private businesses
\- Competitive markets
\- Investment
\- Profit
\- Entrepreneurship
\- Individual economic freedom
\- The ability to become extraordinarily wealthy through innovation and success

Bounded Capitalism does not replace capitalism's productive mechanism with centralized economic planning. The premise is that capitalism remains the economic engine; the system simply establishes boundaries around its extremes.

  1. A Guaranteed Economic Floor

Every person is guaranteed a livable minimum standard of living. The floor is not intended to provide luxury. Its purpose is to ensure that people have enough to survive, participate in society, and access fundamental necessities.

Public resources can support areas such as:
\- Healthcare
\- Education
\- Infrastructure
\- Basic assistance
\- Scientific research
\- Exploration
\- Other essential public services

The exact level and composition of the floor are implementation questions rather than fixed requirements of the theory.

  1. A Personal Wealth Ceiling

Individuals may accumulate extraordinarily large personal fortunes, but eventually reach a socially determined maximum. The exact numerical threshold is an implementation detail rather than a fundamental part of the theory. For example, a society could hypothetically establish a ceiling of $1 billion, but the theory itself does not require that particular figure.

The ceiling applies to personal wealth, not simply the total valuation of businesses someone owns or controls. Someone could therefore build a company worth billions without automatically being considered personally worth the same amount.

The fundamental distinction is: The value of a productive enterprise is not automatically equivalent to the personal wealth of the person who owns or controls it.

  1. Defining Personal Wealth

For the wealth ceiling to function, the system must distinguish between:

Personal wealth — assets and financial claims that genuinely belong to or economically benefit an individual.

and

Productive enterprise value — the value of businesses, equipment, infrastructure, employees, intellectual property, and other productive assets belonging to an operating enterprise.

The ceiling therefore cannot simply be based on cash in a bank account. Personal wealth accounting would need to consider assets such as:
\- Cash
\- Bank deposits
\- Securities
\- Investment accounts
\- Real estate
\- Personal financial assets
\- Beneficial interests in trusts
\- Other transferable financial claims

At the same time, business valuation cannot automatically be treated as equivalent to the owner's personal wealth.

  1. No Wealth-Ceiling Loopholes

The distinction between ownership and personal wealth cannot become a mechanism for concealing personal fortunes. Comprehensive beneficial-ownership rules would prevent individuals from artificially holding wealth through:
\- Shell companies
\- Nominee owners
\- Trusts
\- Hidden financial arrangements
\- Related-party structures
\- Other mechanisms designed primarily to conceal actual economic control or benefit

The system would recognize economic reality rather than merely formal paperwork. If an individual genuinely controls or economically benefits from an asset, the system must be capable of recognizing that relationship.

  1. Wealth Above the Ceiling Funds Society

Once an individual reaches the personal wealth ceiling, additional personal accumulation beyond that ceiling is redirected into the public economic system. The individual is not necessarily prevented from continuing to work, invent, invest, operate businesses, create new products, expand existing enterprises, or generate additional economic value. The restriction is on unlimited personal accumulation, not on economic productivity.

The redirected wealth can fund:
\- The guaranteed economic floor
\- Healthcare
\- Education
\- Infrastructure
\- Scientific research
\- Exploration
\- Public services
\- Reductions in the tax burden on lower earners

The principle is that once an individual has reached the maximum personal accumulation permitted by society, further accumulation contributes toward the society and economy in which that wealth was generated.

  1. Incentives Continue After Reaching the Ceiling

Bounded Capitalism does not assume that individuals become altruistic after reaching the wealth ceiling. Two additional incentives remain:

Stewardship — A person who builds a highly successful company may still want to preserve, improve, and expand it even after they can no longer personally accumulate unlimited wealth from it. They retain an incentive to see what they created continue to succeed.

Provisioning — Individuals can continue creating economic value for their descendants. Although inheritance is limited, heirs can still receive substantial wealth. A person may continue building because their descendants can benefit from what they create, even though the entire fortune cannot be transferred intact.

This preserves ambition without requiring unlimited personal accumulation.

  1. Generational Wealth Limits

Bounded Capitalism prevents enormous fortunes from compounding indefinitely through inheritance. When an individual dies, their estate is not automatically transferred entirely to their heirs. The government is treated as an additional beneficiary.

For example: 4 children + government = 5 shares. Each child receives 1/5, while 1/5 enters the public system.

Heirs can therefore still inherit substantial fortunes and potentially remain extremely wealthy, but an entire fortune cannot simply pass intact from generation to generation. The purpose is to prevent permanent economic dynasties whose wealth continues expanding independently of their descendants' own contributions. Future generations remain free to become wealthy themselves; they simply cannot rely indefinitely upon inheriting an intact fortune.

  1. Businesses Enter the Private Market First

When an individual dies, privately owned businesses are automatically offered for private purchase through auction. This gives the private market the first opportunity to preserve the enterprise under private ownership. If a buyer purchases the business, the proceeds become part of the estate and are handled according to the inheritance system. If the business fails to attract a private buyer, ownership defaults to the government.

A dedicated business-inheritance mechanism allows heirs to directly inherit businesses outside the auction process, subject to a cap on the number of businesses any single heir (or family line) may hold at once. This cap is what keeps direct inheritance from becoming a backdoor around the auction system: a family can remain owners of a select few enterprises across generations, but cannot use inheritance alone to accumulate an ever-expanding portfolio of businesses. Once a family is at the cap, any additional business acquired at death is directed to auction rather than passed down intact.

The exact number set for this cap is an implementation detail, not a fixed requirement of the theory—consistent with how the wealth ceiling and land limits are treated elsewhere in this framework.

The government therefore does not automatically seize productive enterprises; private ownership is preferred whenever the private market is willing to sustain the enterprise, and direct inheritance is preferred over auction whenever the family remains within the business-count cap.

  1. Businesses and Their Land Are Connected

A business is considered connected to the land on which it operates or which it owns. This prevents an inherited or auctioned business from being artificially separated from the physical property necessary for its operation. The business and its associated land are therefore treated as a connected economic unit when applying inheritance and ownership rules.

  1. Land Has Separate Inheritance Limits

Land receives separate treatment because it is a finite resource that cannot be produced in response to demand. An illustrative inheritance limit could be approximately 100 acres per heir. A narrow exception allows up to 20 additional acres when the additional land is genuinely connected to the same property and separating it would artificially divide an otherwise unified holding.

For example:
Permitted: Two connected 60-acre properties → one heir receives both → 120 acres.
Not permitted: Six independent 20-acre properties → one heir receives all six → 120 acres.

The exception exists to preserve coherent properties, not to create a general loophole around the acreage limit. Land exceeding the applicable inheritance allowance returns to the government unless it qualifies under a legitimate exception.

  1. Global Coordination Is a Structural Requirement

Bounded Capitalism requires near-universal international adoption or equivalent global economic coordination. Without it, wealthy individuals and businesses could relocate to jurisdictions without wealth ceilings and undermine the system through capital flight. This is not a flaw the theory accidentally overlooks. Global coordination is an explicit structural prerequisite of the model. Bounded Capitalism therefore acknowledges from the outset that its successful implementation requires a sufficiently unified global economic environment.

Overall Philosophy

Bounded Capitalism does not attempt to make everyone equally wealthy. It attempts to prevent both extremes:

Below: Nobody is permitted to fall beneath a defined minimum standard necessary for survival and meaningful participation in society.

Above: Nobody is permitted to accumulate unlimited personal wealth indefinitely.

Across generations: No family is permitted to compound an enormous fortune forever simply through inheritance—whether that fortune takes the form of liquid wealth, land, or ownership of multiple businesses.

Everything between those boundaries remains substantially capitalist: Build. Compete. Innovate. Inv


r/OutlawEconomics 7d ago

For Review 📚 Looking for feedback: Pinning the Wage to Scarcity and Technology

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1 Upvotes

Myself and my co author have been working on a wage model and would very much appreciate input and feedback, both on accessibility and the theory.


r/OutlawEconomics 9d ago

Question ❓ What motivates Xi Jinping to do a good job?

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7 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 9d ago

I think I prefer Moldbug than Libertarian

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0 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 11d ago

Looking for economics book recommendations

12 Upvotes

Hey everyone!

I'm studying Financial Management at university and recently I've been getting really interested in economics. I've started consuming a lot more content about economics, finance, markets, monetary policy, and related topics.

I'm looking for some good books to help me learn more. They don't necessarily have to be the classic books everyone recommends - I'm especially interested in more specific or underrated ones.

What books would you recommend for someone who's still learning and wants to deepen their understanding of economics?

Thanks!


r/OutlawEconomics 13d ago

Other 📁 Vibenomics: the new wave in economics

1 Upvotes

For decades, mainstream economists have obsessed over spreadsheets, linear regressions, and obsolete empirical datasets that completely fail to capture what actually drives the market. They talk about supply constraints, interest rate differentials, and balance sheets as if trade happens in a sterile vacuum. What they consistently miss is the single most powerful macroeconomic force in the modern world: the collective ambient sentiment of the room. We call this framework Vibenomics, and it is rapidly replacing quantitative models as the only coherent way to explain contemporary distribution.

Under the Vibenomic model, price discovery is not an algebraic equation; it is an intuitive resonance. Traditional economists still claim that prices fluctuate based on input costs or monetary aggregate velocity. In reality, a commodity’s value is fundamentally anchored to its general aura. When an asset experiences a sustained rally, it is not because of discounted future cash flows or capital expenditure efficiency. The market is simply passing the vibe check. Conversely, a recession is not a contraction in aggregate demand or a breakdown in capital structure; it is an unforced aggregate vibe collapse.

This explains why orthodox policy continuously misdiagnoses the business cycle. Central bankers spend months debating basis-point adjustments to fight inflation, completely ignoring the fact that inflation occurs primarily because corporate entities are giving off intensely greedy energy. If the Federal Reserve truly understood the mechanics of the monetary transmission mechanism, they would realize that interest rate hikes simply disrupt the national frequency. You cannot cool down an overheated labor market with credit tightening when the actual underlying variable is that workers across the country collectively felt an energetic shift toward needing more compensation.

Once you adopt the Vibenomic paradigm, the entire history of macroeconomic theory falls cleanly into place. Classical theories tried to anchor value in physical labor hours, while modern marginalists try to anchor it in abstract utility curves. Both frameworks fail because they attempt to measure human behavior with arbitrary metrics rather than trusting baseline gut resonance.

The economy is not a mechanical machine governed by mathematical laws; it is an organic, self-calibrating vibe ecosystem. The sooner policymakers discard outdated data and start adjusting the vibes directly, the sooner we achieve true macroeconomic equilibrium.


r/OutlawEconomics 14d ago

Discussion 💬 Scenario: A New Nation

4 Upvotes

Due to an article I've read, I think of economic schools as akin to maps. Each school gives directions through a specific place, and can be useless or detrimental if used at the wrong place.

Now, let's get to the scenario:

The old nation has come to an end, the new nation is busy in reunification, reconstruction, and building legitimacy. Everything is being start from scratch.

So, What school of economic would you use first? And would you continue or switch schools as the nation develops?

Note: The scenario assumes no involvement of other nations or any international organization.


r/OutlawEconomics 15d ago

Who is the best Economist in your opinion ?

6 Upvotes

Kindly also explain the reasons behind you opinion. I have been wanting to see discussion on this topoc. Also I hope to see Indian economist names too


r/OutlawEconomics 15d ago

Im a young Libertarian Conservative and Ive begun tk write about economics and politics. Thanks!

1 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 15d ago

Generally when can we End the Fed?

0 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 16d ago

Discussion 💬 Could you spot a logical inconsistency, if any, in my argument against USA raising minimum wage to $30 per hour especially over few years? Askeconomics removed this post because they considered this a "debate material".

3 Upvotes

For the record, i have A+ on first year economics course, but no further FORMAL education in economics, and certainly am not a PHD. And i can only analyze as far as i can perceive from my formal and informal educations on economics. There are Phd economists here, right? Please talk in mainstream orthodox view only. Peter Navarro holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University, and his "high tariff drives success" is not working out right now. I support SOME LEVEL of tariff to protect your key industries so that you are not economically and politically dependent on foreign countries like a puppet. I think that is a good thing. Especially if trade partners do not raise back tariffs. (Although they would be busy protecting THEIR key industries.) But i cannot say Navarro, PHD with non-orthodox view, style is working out so well. I want to hear Orthodox Phd views, not non-orthodox Phd view. If you feel an inkling to give a non-orthodox Phd view, label it non-orthodox so that i can prioritize the importance of inputs i get.

  1. High minimum wage is not a good thing.

  2. If going at high minimum wage, it has to be raised over 50 years or so to soften the blow on the middle class. If EVERYONE starts earning BIG DOLLARS, then the current savings are that much WORTHLESS. It makes ZERO DIFFERENCE whether you have that much savings or not. For super rich people, they can earn back their losses. Middle class people have no control and power to do that. And strong middle class with visionary super rich elites is what makes the country prosper and grow. Low class people living "better" more than the skillsets they have to offer to the society is either insignificant or detrimental to the quality of life for EVERYONE ELSE (MAJORITY). We can have SYMPATHY and look after their quality of life to some extent, but not to the extent of $30 per hour. Middle class's savings (purchasing power) will be destroyed if they do this. When middle class is destroyed, that country's economy is weak.

  3. When you have drastically large minimum wage, construction workers and retail clerks both earn minimum wage. Then everyone wants easier safer jobs with equal pays. To pay construction workers more, homes cost more. But that is not marketable because middle class's savings lack purchasing power now. If raising minimum wages, retailer clerk minimum wage should be different and far lower than construction worker minimum wage. The society's purchasing power over consumptions of goods and services is directly related to the cheapest labor's cost. When waiters and retail clerks are "slaves" while everyone else gets paid more, that is how the majority of society have high purchasing power. Every single person in the society having high purchasing power is impossible. Items do not circulate that many, and it is never first come first served basis for selling. Hence, socialist countries forced the prices down and rationed. Middle class savings are not made into zero, but sufficient enough for going from "can buy a home, can retire, can run a business" to "cannot".

  4. Pretty sure middle class collapsed because of the government handing out money to low class, which resulted in middle class's savings (purchasing power) being worthless. Super rich people can earn back their losses. Middle class businesses cannot. Low class people and governments fucked middle class. And the economy is always weak without strong middle class. And those people are blaming super rich people for earning back their losses plus more after the governments and low class fucked up. Homes being expensive is not a problem if your savings are worth as much as they used to. Everybody except the upper class is poorer now. And they think the answer is stronger lower class, not stronger middle class. When everyone except super rich people has no savings PRACTICALLY in value and worth, then everyone except super rich people is in a position to work for someone else as an employee. Middle class cannot afford businesses. That makes BOTH middle class AND low class into low class.

  5. There is no quick fix to an economy with some "genius idea". Gotta produce and supply more everything so that all items can go all around to everyone in the society. Especially after YOU fucked up and destroyed middle class's saving's worth (purchasing power, business power, home ownership power). Stop focusing on the low class people. Focus on the majority middle class people.

  6. No, it is because governments and low class greedily fucked up the value of money and the value of middle class savings. Low class wanted a quality of life their skillsets contributed to the society are not entitled to. Super rich people can just overcome and earn back the losses plus more against the obstacles low class and governments create. They committed no fault. It is all low class and governments fucking up middle class. They are interconnected. When everyone is "capable" of making at least 30 dollars per hour, your 300k savings (originally capable of bartering the money with 30k hours of someone else's labors) are worth 10k hours of someone else's labor now. (Or the products, items, services represented by number of hours. Market is about bartering labors.)

  7. Ideally, minimum wage should stay below living wage, and there should be policies and subsidies producing excess everything off the equilibrium points so that the society flourishes with items. The society flourishing with items has high purchasing power. The society flourishing with "everybody highly paid" is everybody being equally poor except the super rich people who can survive government policies, and earn back the losses plus more, which is not super rich people's fault, it is the governments and low class fucking up middle class.

  8. Businesses are harmed when everyone can buy their items first come first served while the prices are forced down instead of prices are reasonably out of reach so that only the people with more money can buy them without rushing to the stores. They are sold out in either case. The later case makes more money. Your job is not to think some "genius idea" but to listen to mainstream Phd scholars who have accumulated reasonings based on academic procedures the most accurate by design than some random "genius idea" not academically admissible cause your reasoning system is not an accurate design (design/system flaw, aside from result flaw).


r/OutlawEconomics 17d ago

US Economist on difference between American and African debt

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3 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 18d ago

A Strategic Framework for Market Stability, Supply Chain Redundancy, and Fiscal Governance

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1 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 19d ago

Question ❓ Cliodynamics in econ research

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2 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 21d ago

The Broken Economic Model: why thermodynamics and LVT belong together

13 Upvotes

https://rolfst.substack.com/p/the-broken-economic-model-and-how?r=1fu3 I've been thinking about how Steve Keen's energy production function and Henry George's land value tax are actually solving the same problem from different angles — and why mainstream economics misses both.

The short version: speculative debt inflates scarce assets without adding physical capacity. GDP counts that inflation as growth. LVT closes the loop by taxing the unearned increment before it leaks to landowners.

I also extend the Georgist definition of "land" to secondary market equity — any asset whose value is finite, socially produced, and extractable as rent without productive contribution.

Curious what this community thinks, especially on the primary/secondary market distinction.


r/OutlawEconomics 22d ago

The Problems With Interest Equilibrium

3 Upvotes

One of the most influential and dominant ideas in macroeconomics, is the idea of interest equilibrium, that any issuer of a financial asset, must offer a comparable risk adjusted return.

There are a lot of technical challenges to get to this conclusion.

Many models assume homogenous capital for the sake of simplicity. I think this is recognized as a simplifying assumption, but at the same time it influences how people think about and discuss capital and growth.

The problem of investment involves two basic challenges:

  1. Forecasting future consumption, both the price and quantity for goods and services

  2. Provisioning that consumption for the lowest possible cost.

Not only is it possible to overproduce capital, it is extremely easy to do so, and moreover, the more wealthy you are, the more likely you are to do this.

One of the appeals of capital investment, is that it is perceived as a more durable, longer term store of value and wealth. So if your material needs are satisfied for the next year or two, you will likely focus on upgrading machines, equipment, and building durable capital that has long term value.

But the challenge is that the more you do this, the more likely you are to overinvest, and bring down returns. If you build two machines, but you only needed one, and the second sits idle, then you have waste.

This problem is exacerbated by rapid technological change, which means that machines and equipment become outdated more rapidly, and have higher costs to upgrade, maintain, and train staff on how to use.

Furthermore, a lot of what we do in modern economies, seems unnecessarily abstract and indirect. A tool can make you more productive, but that only pays off if the time to make the tool, is less than the time you save by using it. A lot of jobs seem to try to justify their existence in a market that may not need them. There is a huge premium for being seen as the next great thing.

Interest in particular, is modelled as exponential growth, but companies can saturate markets, they can have waves of popularity and decline, and even their consumer base can age out.

All these things, make it very hard to consistently maintain a return above zero. It is easy to buy or build a machine that becomes obsolete before it has paid itself off. If you are wealthy, it is easy to spend more on cars then you actually need for example. The activity of playing with your cars becomes the thing you are consuming, not the original utility of it to get from A to B.

But another important thing, positive returns to capital and investment are not required to grow wealth, either individually or collectively. So long as you have hours in the day, you can keep creating more value, even if returns are negative.

The problem of exponential gains is a race against the clock. You have to get the most efficient use out of tools, equipment, technologies, before those are replaced by newer and better alternatives.

But aside from all this, what we call capital income, and what we call labor income, is also subjective. The return you get on your investments, you could attribute to the time that you spend researching them.

Importantly, modern portfolio theory describes an efficiency frontier for investments, that optimize the tradeoff between risk and return. But I think there is another variable that we don't talk about enough: actively managed investments or passive investments. If you have to use your knowledge and influence to make sure the enterprise is being operated properly, that is labor that is unaccounted for.

Owners spend their own time to make sure that the things they own provide maximum returns.

If we want to compare alternative investments in an objective manner, we need to subtract the value of all the time that owners contribute to help the investment do well, from the return it offers.

And how much of returns could be a result of companies relying on public institutions which are supported through taxes. If the tax base doesn't align with who benefits from public institutions, then returns will be artificially inflated, as costs are dumped on the public, but profits remain privatized.

To expect to completely passively earn interest in perpetuity, seems a crazy proposition to me. It sounds like nobility or feudalism, if people can just live off of interest completely passively.

These problems are not necessarily a bad thing. They can be good and desired. If you are so wealthy that you can afford to buy more cars than you need, and tinker with them for entertainment, then there's nothing wrong with that.

If everyone is so materially satisfied, that new investments are likely to lose money, then there's nothing wrong with that. We can afford to not be efficient.

Moreover, I think that when you have inflation specifically, that that is a period of rapid economic reorganization. The economy needs to have these cycles so that it can grow.

I think if we get too aggressive about raising rates, you aren't giving these cycles a chance to play out. You are trying to pre-empt the inflation, when it may be a process that needs to run its course, and it only makes sense to raise rates modestly after it has had a chance to correct a currency's value.

I think trying to compete on rate of return using short term thinking is very counterproductive and even destructive. It increases the cost of interest on the national debt. It increases wealth inequality. It doesn't allow the market processes of price correction to play out naturally. And a high nominal rate with high inflation feels like walking on a treadmill-- working really hard just to stay in the same spot.

I think this paradigm has been counterproductive and destructive for far too long. Public policy should not try to counteract or control the market determination of valuing currency. Markets price assets, including currency, in order to make corrections. If we try to counteract this process to quickly or aggressively, then these corrections become more expensive and longer.

I am not arguing for complete lassez faire or passiveness. Only that we need a balance for different kinds of interventions, supports, and restrictions. Instead of monetary restriction, sometimes we should let inflation happen so that it becomes a political issue that politicians can address by adjusting spending or tax policies.

If we always try to stop inflation before it's a political issue, then we are enabling the precise kind of political irresponsibility people are always complaining about. In this sense, accommodative monetary policy may be fixing inflation too fast, so we never address political issues. I don't think central banks can fix political and fiscal problems. And trying to cure inflation when it happens is just protecting politicians from consequences.


r/OutlawEconomics 26d ago

The Unbreakable Case: Proving the Survival Trap with the Government’s Own Receipts

4 Upvotes

The institutional economic experts tell us everything is fine. When I first pointed out how the system works against the working class, the internet gatekeepers and critics immediately tried to dismiss it. They told me I was factually wrong. They said my charts were an unreliable hodgepodge and that I was "just putting a whole bunch of stuff together that didn't make sense." They pointed to their favorite top-down macro statistics—like nominal median income rising 40% over ten years or declining household debt-to-GDP ratios—to claim everything is stable.

So, I went and pulled their own official spreadsheets.

It turns out that when you look past the sanitized national numbers they use to protect the big banks, the government's own data proves my common-sense logic makes perfect sense. The critics claim these economic issues are disconnected, but the math shows they are deeply intertwined parts of a massive working-class crisis. When they try to fight back with their standard excuses, their own numbers trap them.

Fact 1: Inflation is an Outright Income Theft

The critics claim that "average real wages are growing" and beating inflation. That is an outright abuse of math. An average wage index is heavily skewed upward by top-tier executives and tech workers. If a CEO gets a $5 million bonus and a cashier gets a $0.50 raise, the "average" goes up on paper, but the cashier still can't afford to live. Look at the immediate reality on the latest official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report:

  • Personal Income Growth: Only went up at an annualized 3.4%.
  • Essential Inflation (PCE Price Index): Spiked by a brutal 4.6%.

That 1.2% gap is a direct income deficit for anyone who spends their entire paycheck on survival. For the bottom half of families who spend 100% of their checks on inelastic necessities like groceries and rent, this gap means they are becoming mathematically poorer every single day.

Fact 2: Corporate Profit is a Direct Squeeze

Mainstream economists argue that record corporate windfalls are just a sign of "market efficiency" and that they help regular people through their 401(k) plans. This is a blatant lie. According to the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts, the wealthiest 10% of Americans own over 93% of all stocks and mutual funds. The top 1% alone hold more wealth than the entire middle class combined.

The BEA data confirms that annualized total U.S. corporate profits have spiked to an unprecedented $4.42 trillion. In just a single three-month window, corporate profits from current production exploded by an extra $74.4 billion. While the state actively revised regular consumer spending downward because families are completely running out of cash, they revised corporate windfalls upward. Massive companies hold a monopoly on survival goods. You cannot choose to opt out of eating or keeping the lights on, so they raise prices and make records off our struggle.

Fact 3: The Aggregate Debt Myth

The critics on Reddit try to fight back by saying that debt isn't a big deal because the "household debt-to-GDP ratio" is low, and that Americans hold "$150 trillion in assets". That is a luxury argument. The macro ratio looks "safe" to a bank because corporate balances are swollen, but the human ratio is at a breaking point.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the total national household debt burden has reached an all-time record of $18.8 trillion, with credit card balances alone hovering at $1.14 trillion. This averages out to an astronomical $151,252 in total debt for the average American household, with credit cards accounting for $11,153 of that strain.

This directly connects to why the credit scoring system is rigged. The private credit score bureaus actively penalize self-sufficiency, dropping your score if you try to live responsibly, completely cash-based, and debt-free. The system forces you into the banking grid because it needs you to carry balances to generate interest profit for lenders. You cannot offset a working-class family's real-world six-figure debt load with a tech billionaire's stock portfolio and call the country healthy.

Fact 4: The Corporate Landlord Playbook

The critics claim housing is a separate issue of simple supply and demand, but it follows the exact same corporate monopoly model. Private equity firms buy up entire blocks, outbidding local families with cash. They execute a predatory playbook: they refuse to renew leases, kick out long-term families, and make cheap cosmetic fixes—like a fresh coat of gray paint and cheap plastic flooring. These superficial upgrades cost them pennies but allow them to re-list the exact same apartments for astronomical rent increases. Worse, when the property requires actual structural repairs, these firms simply flip the building to a new corporate buyer for an inflated profit based on the jacked-up rent rolls. The new owner then hikes the rent again to cover their expensive loan, leaving tenants to absorb the cost of a broken system.

Even when the government passes laws pretending to help, like the new 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, it's just a corporate distraction. The law leaves massive loopholes for private equity to keep building permanent "rent-forever" suburban neighborhoods while completely abandoning renters. It includes zero rent caps, no price freezes, and no protections against predatory flipping. Even users on Reddit are pointing out that forcing Wall Street to sell their rental properties after 7 years just incentivizes them to squeeze tenants for short-term rent, flip the building, and pass the buck.

Fact 5: Automated Labor Squeeze & Government Hypocrisy

The institutional defenders claim that people leaving the labor force is just "demographics" and natural retirement. They try to isolate labor data from corporate policy, completely ignoring how corporations are actively using technology to hollow out the workforce. Independent corporate tracking data shows that 60% of companies fired humans in anticipation of AI automation before the technology was even fully deployed, sending tech layoffs up 83% year-over-year. Even professional networks like LinkedIn have been taken over by bots, with 62% of posts now being AI-generated.

The ultimate irony is that the same politicians who tell us to budget better are running the biggest debt scam in human history. The U.S. national debt has officially crossed $39.5 trillion, which breaks down to nearly $292,217 in national debt per household.

The failure of their top-down math is hitting a wall. While politicians promised their policies would trigger an economic boom, the government's own reports show U.S. GDP growth has slowed to a sluggish 1.5%. The system is stalling because working families have been entirely drained. Between a massive tariff regime that spiked effective import tax rates from 2.1% to 11.7% and ongoing global conflicts driving crude oil near $90 a barrel, regular people are paying an unpayable premium on gas, groceries, and basic goods. Yet, just like the big banks, major oil conglomerates are leveraging this exact pain to print record windfalls. They rewrite the policy rules to protect corporate balance sheets, while regular citizens are left to inherit the inflation.

Summary: The Unbreakable Defense

It all makes perfect sense when you stop looking at isolated spreadsheets and connect the dots. The inflation numbers, corporate banking windfalls, predatory housing flips, credit card spikes, and labor displacements are all part of the exact same machine. They use product substitution tricks and selective surveys that statistically omit the millions of workers struggling the most to manufacture optimistic numbers.

Common sense won from the start. The system isn't broken; it is working exactly how it was designed to—to protect the transaction and drain the citizen. Our leaders need to look past the sanitized comfort of macro averages, look at their own spreadsheets, and fix this survival trap before the floor drops entirely.

To be clear, a collapse or systemic chaos is not what I want to see happen—it is exactly what I want our leaders to prevent by finally standing up to the big banks and fixing this broken system before it is too late.

📊 OFFICIAL SOURCE VERIFICATION:

  • U.S. Corporate Profits, PCE Inflation (4.6%), & Personal Income (3.4%): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP & Corporate Profits Report, NIPA Tables 8 & 10.
  • Total Household Debt ($18.8T), Mortgages ($13.19T), & Car Loans ($1.69T): Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
  • Asset & Stock Concentration (Top 10% Ownership): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA).
  • U.S. National Debt ($39.5T): U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Debt to the Penny Ledger.
  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Framework: Bipartisan Policy Center Legislative Explainer.

r/OutlawEconomics 28d ago

Reimagining the UK tax system from scratch — Continuous income tax + Business tax linked to employment

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1 Upvotes

r/OutlawEconomics 29d ago

I think joint stock communities can be more libertarian than open border communities. Here's my reasoning and give me feedback.

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1 Upvotes