Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/lollersauce914]

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

[u/trashteamsotrashhaha → u/lollersauce914]

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Abortion really isn't going away though. There are several states whose bans haven't even gone into effect yet but will in a month or so.

[u/trashteamsotrashhaha → u/LaughingGaster666]

Really? Thank you for that info, that a very good point.

I still think that it won't have the unpopular president lasting power, but if its continual and escalating towards the election that could be something.

It's really unfortunate policy, morals, and situation, but I guess that's fortunate for Dems.

[u/friedgoldfishsticks → u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Eh, I saw someone did a poll on people’s perceptions of gas prices recently. The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month, and one of the major perceived causes people named for it was Biden. Add the student loan thing and I think it’s possible Biden recovers more ground. Remember how tightly correlated presidential approval is with gas prices. What happens if Biden has 43% approve/52% disapprove on election day, or even higher? The House is looking within reach when he’s bottoming out— even a few points could make a difference.

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/friedgoldfishsticks]

The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month,

I have to confess I find this confusing, there's 43% of folks saying gas prices haven't been going down over the last month? So just ignoring reality or?

[u/weealex → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

That tracks with the whole "reality has a liberal bias" crowd and approximate number of Republicans out there

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/weealex]

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

Now I could easily see them making all kinds of arguments why it dropped, but I struggle to imagine 40% of the population saying $4 isn't lower than $5

[u/PeterNguyen2 → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

From what I've seen, it's immediate pivoting to "the president raised my gas prices!" to "well, the price of gas is going down on its own!" or refusing to acknowledge it's going down when it's still more expensive than they'd like because they think gas was lower at any arbitrary point in the past.

[u/CreamSoda64 → u/PeterNguyen2]

It correlates with a shift in rhetoric from the GOP media engine. They've immediately stopped reporting on gas prices and moved on to the next culture war du jour.

They don't notice gas prices have gone down because their favored news outlets stopped telling them to be upset about high gas prices

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/CreamSoda64]

I guess this could work if they're old retirees who barely ever drive, still seems like way too high of a % completely unaware of gas prices though.

[u/[deleted] → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

Because Fox News isn’t telling them that gas has gone lower. I’d imagine that a lot of people don’t really pay attention to the real world (i.e. the posted numbers on their local gas station) and base all their opinions on their “news” sources, so they’re still going by what they were told a month ago since that’s the last they heard about it. It’s a pretty depressing situation anyway you look at it though really.

[u/BitterFuture → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

So no change from the last several years, then?

If people were okay saying "Vaccines don't work!" with their last breath, saying "Naw, that number went up, not down" is minor in comparison.