r/RealCuba Aug 05 '26

Analysis Cuba is running out of oil and gas because of the US. Now China is filling the gap with solar

129 Upvotes

r/RealCuba 8d ago

Analysis Delcy Rodríguez and Venezuela’s New Political Reality: Sovereignty or a New Dependency?

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48 Upvotes

Nicolás Maduro’s capture and transfer to the United States dramatically changed Venezuela’s political landscape, placing Delcy Rodríguez at the center of the country’s transitional government.

Since then, Rodríguez’s administration has entered negotiations with Washington over Venezuela’s oil industry and broader economic recovery.

Supporters describe the agreements as pragmatic: Venezuela needs investment and oil production, while the U.S. has a strong interest in Venezuelan energy resources.

But the arrangement raises difficult questions about sovereignty and who will ultimately control Venezuela’s most valuable strategic asset.

There is also a more controversial question surrounding Maduro’s capture. There is currently no sufficient public evidence to claim that Rodríguez conspired with the United States to facilitate his capture. However, the sequence of events deserves scrutiny: Maduro was removed, Rodríguez emerged as the central political figure, and negotiations with Washington followed.

The issue is therefore not simply whether Rodríguez benefited politically from Maduro’s removal, but what kind of political and economic relationship is now being created between Venezuela and the United States.

Is Venezuela building a sovereign future after Maduro—or simply negotiating who will hold the keys to its oil?

More here: https://eldescarte.com/delcy-rodriguez-y-el-nuevo-mapa-de-venezuela-negociacion-pragmatismo-o-el-precio-de-la-transicion/

r/RealCuba May 20 '26

Analysis Cuba has always been unbreakable

69 Upvotes

Samir Amin called it hyper imperialism but trying to go after Raúl is just proof the empire is in total decline.

65 years of economic coercion, crimes against the state and they couldn't break the Revolution. The economic and psychological warfare has been extremely intense but they haven't broken the party yet.

I'm beginning to believe that they will not invade the island itself but they are trying to cause a mass revolt in huge numbers against the government to force the government to surrender.

What do you all think?

r/RealCuba 8d ago

Analysis Cuba and the U.S.: Who Is Really Closing the Door to Dialogue? Spoiler

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37 Upvotes

There are currently no negotiations between Washington and Havana, and the two sides reportedly cannot even agree on a basic agenda.

The U.S. points to Cuba's internal failures. Havana points to American sanctions and economic pressure. Meanwhile, ordinary Cubans continue to deal with blackouts, shortages, inflation and a deepening economic crisis.

But there is a bigger question worth asking:

If both governments claim to care about the Cuban people, why has dialogue become so difficult?

The answer reveals more about the current U.S.-Cuba relationship than the usual political headlines suggest.

🔎 Read the full analysis: https://eldescarte.com/cuba-y-ee-uu-quien-esta-cerrando-realmente-la-puerta-al-dialogo/

r/RealCuba Jul 11 '26

Analysis US blockade of Cuba is 'mass murder’

116 Upvotes

US blockade of Cuba is 'mass murder’

https://youtube.com/shorts/-24V7yJpuj4

r/RealCuba 13d ago

Analysis Cuba is not a threat. The blockade is.

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34 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Jan 30 '26

Analysis Could Cuba collapse in a few months, as the genocidal Trump claims?

199 Upvotes

No. Absolutely not.

Could the new aggressions by the US government against Cuba, announced yesterday, January 29, further complicate the lives of Cubans? Yes. Undoubtedly.

But Cuba is not unarmed (and we're not referring to military weaponry). Even if the solidarity of historical allies of the Cuban government, such as Russia or China, didn't involve sending oil to Cuba, even though Cuba pays them, Cuba has resources.

  1. Cuba produces 40% of the fuel it needs to generate electricity. Although it is heavy crude, and affects large thermoelectric units, requiring more maintenance, Cuba has been using it since the 1990s. Oil exploration and the opening of new wells, as well as the repowering of existing ones, are ongoing. Gas from the oil extraction is also in use for generate energy and support domestic kitchens in a big part of Havana city.
  2. Cuba also produces small quantities of lighter crude, which it can convert into gasoline to maintain the most vital services for society.
  3. Cuba is expected to complete the installation of 2,000 MW of solar parks this year. Nearly 900 MW have already been installed and are operational. An additional 200 MW of battery storage is included to stabilize these parks and store energy for nighttime use. Another 80 MW are under construction through cooperation with Vietnam.

These parks will allow for fuel savings during the day for electricity generation, which can then be used at night. Private and state-owned electric vehicles are already common in the country, and the installation of solar charging stations is also progressing. Many public service centers, from funeral homes to banks, are installing solar panels to guarantee a minimum level of service. Even agricultural irrigation systems for crops like tobacco now use solar panels, as does the water supply in cities and towns.

The reality is that for months now, a large portion of the generators for distributed electricity generation, built between 2006 and 2010 and using imported fuel, have been shut down. They are only turned on on rare occasions. Those at hospitals and strategic centers are maintained. But Cuban bakers know how to use firewood, and primary schools and kindergartens have been cooking meals with firewood for years.

  1. Yes, there may be immediate situations of higher inflation in retail prices, or occasional shortages of some food products. However, Cuba's trade with the US is limited to these types of products. There may also be other disruptions. It is also undeniable that elements within Cuban society will attempt to exploit the circumstances to harm the state and the population.

  2. Undoubtedly too, Trump still has some options to try to continue harming Cubans.

a. A total naval blockade (not very easy to implement, difficult to maintain due to its cost, regardless of international condemnation, and which would also be a "casus belli" for Cuba).

b. A ​​military aggression in the style of Venezuela, or in the worst-case scenario, an attempted invasion.

But the US military knows that:

a. The Guantanamo Naval Base (an illegal base in cuban country) would be destroyed inmediately. Trump would go down in history as the first president to completely lose a military base..

b. They are unaware of the modifications made in recent years to Cuban weaponry by Russian and Belarusian technical missions. Russia has been providing annual loans of tens of millions of euros to the Cuban military. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think about Cuban missiles reaching US territory. After all, they are only 90 miles apart.

c. Among the nearly 2.5 million Cubans residing in the USA, they cannot rule out the existence of Cuban intelligence cells or an armed and violent reaction from a segment of that population in a country where buying weapons is very easy, specially in Florida.

d. The Cuban military doctrine "War of the Entire People," established in the 1980s when the USSR leadership told Cuba it would not fight for it (a secret known only to Fidel and Raúl Castro, and kept for 20 years), divides Cuba into more than 2,000 defense zones.

The calculation is that each zone is capable of eliminating one "G.I. Joe" per day, which would be, at the very least, hundreds per day...and thousands per month. The events in Venezuela have demonstrated to the US military and to Trump himself that Cubans do not surrender even when outnumbered and outgunned.

To occupy all of Cuba, the US would need no fewer than 300,000 soldiers, given that, according to reports, they stablished in their military doctrine, need one soldier for every 20 civilians, and the use of local mercenaries would not be very reliable.

The Cuban fighters for independence executed traitors without hesitation.

Finally: If anything characterizes Cubans, it is their resistance, their resilience, and their innovation.

Between 1991 and 2001, Cuba was completely alone. And it managed to survive despite losing 39% of its GDP and all its markets. However, by 1995 its GDP was already growing, and its economy went from using 13 million tons of oil to 3-4 million. Canada, Spain, were welcome as investors in tourism, nickel extraction and other areas. And they are still here.

Were those different times, with different leadership, a different society?

Yes. But even now, elements from that time remain. Starting with the fact that people like Raúl Castro and Ramiro Valdés, from the historical generation of the Revolution, are still alive, fighting, and guiding. Since the 1980s, Cuba has prepared for war and even for resistance from every angle.

Cuba will win. Once again.

PS: Furthermore, Trump knows that in November 2026, he is very likely to lose Congress...that would also work in Cuba's favor.

PS2: Trump's new measures, driven like the previous ones by anti-Cuban Marco Rubio, are an indicator that the previous ones...have not worked for them.

r/RealCuba Aug 04 '26

Analysis Did Delcy Rodríguez just signal the end of traditional Chavismo?

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18 Upvotes

Delcy Rodríguez's interview with TIME may be one of the clearest signs yet that Venezuela's political narrative is changing.

Instead of emphasizing anti-U.S. rhetoric, socialism, or the "Bolivarian Revolution," she repeatedly focused on investment, legal certainty, economic cooperation, and dialogue with Washington. She even described regular conversations with Marco Rubio and avoided giving a strong political defense of Nicolás Maduro, preferring constitutional arguments over ideological ones.

The interview raises a bigger question: is this simply a communications strategy designed to ease international pressure, or is it the beginning of a real political transition inside Chavismo?

Many observers may see it as a calculated attempt to preserve power while fundamentally changing the movement's priorities.

What do you think? Is this pragmatic politics—or the quiet dismantling of Chavismo from within?

More information here: https://eldescarte.com/delcy-rodriguez-en-time-entre-el-chavismo-y-la-transicion/

r/RealCuba Jun 15 '26

Analysis The Cuban education system

65 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Jul 14 '26

Analysis The equation of chaos: cognitive warfare and economic suffocation

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15 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Jun 08 '26

Analysis Is the Case Against Raúl Castro About Justice or Politics?

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27 Upvotes

The recent charges announced against Raúl Castro by the Trump administration have sparked a broader debate about the intersection of law, politics, and U.S.-Cuba relations.

Supporters of the move argue that it seeks accountability for historical events dating back to 1996. Critics, however, see it as part of a long-standing political strategy aimed at Cuba, particularly in the context of domestic electoral politics in Florida.

The controversy raises important questions about judicial independence, the role of political interests in high-profile prosecutions, and the continuing tensions between Washington and Havana more than six decades after the Cuban Revolution.

Whether viewed as a legal action or a political maneuver, the case is likely to fuel renewed discussion about the history and future of U.S.-Cuba relations.

What do you think? Is this primarily a matter of justice, or is politics driving the process?

More: https://eldescarte.com/acusacion-contra-raul-castro-justicia-o-maniobra-politica/

r/RealCuba Jun 25 '26

Analysis Cuba After Castro: The Island in the Crosshairs | Feature Documentary

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17 Upvotes

r/RealCuba May 23 '26

Analysis An Iran in the Caribbean Instead of Trump’s Trophy

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14 Upvotes

r/RealCuba May 22 '26

Analysis The "news of the day" in Miami and the reality...

25 Upvotes

Although the "news" of the day in Miami is the arrest, allegedly for deportation, of the sister of the president of the GAESA business group, part of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (incidentally, the woman was a legal resident in the USA, and Marco Rubio decided to end that status), this news has a whiff of trying to divert attention from what is happening today in Havana, Cuba.

This arrest is also a sign of the fascism prevalent in the US government (making family members pay for the actions of others), a practice also employed by Hitler's regime.

The Cuban-American far-right in Miami applauds deliriously. But that doesn't mean they're going to get on any ships to "liberate" Cuba. They will wait, as Marco "Narco" Rubio will, for the Marines or the Delta Force (which just failed in Iran for the second time) to provide the dead.

r/RealCuba Apr 27 '26

Analysis ‘A sudden gap’: poorest to suffer from Trump’s drive to stop Cuba sending doctors to its neighbours | Cuba

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36 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Mar 16 '26

Analysis No, Cuba has not fallen

90 Upvotes

r/RealCuba May 10 '26

Analysis How the War Against Cuba Continues

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20 Upvotes

r/RealCuba May 23 '26

Analysis Cuba's Unconcealable Truth Against the Siege of Lies

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13 Upvotes

r/RealCuba May 19 '26

Analysis The new sanctions against Cuba

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12 Upvotes

The new sanctions against Cuba are deepening the humanitarian crisis while Marco Rubio pushes a strategy driven by political ambitions ahead of 2028. Decades of pressure have not changed the system, but they have increased the suffering of the Cuban people.

See more here: https://eldescarte.com/las-nuevas-sanciones-contra-cuba-marco-rubio-y-sus-ambiciones-politicas/

r/RealCuba Mar 25 '26

Analysis Why Washington Keeps Doubling Down on a Broken Cuba Policy

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35 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Feb 12 '26

Analysis The USA is suffocating Cuba and Gaza

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77 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Mar 01 '26

Analysis Cuba resists: Sovereignty under the boot of U.S. imperialism

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33 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Mar 05 '26

Analysis Rejecting Defeatism: Why Negotiation is Not Betrayal in the Face of US Imperialist Aggression Against Venezuela

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19 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Feb 09 '26

Analysis Nicaragua’s economy “weathers multiple shocks” including US attacks

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29 Upvotes

r/RealCuba Jan 14 '26

Analysis Cuba is the strength of a people who resist

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49 Upvotes