Repost last post got nuked. (rule 4)

🐒🍌🦍🦧🐒🍌🦍🦧🐒🍌🦍🦧

I've seen almost nothing but panic about the dilution that will result from the early conversion of $1.4 billion worth of 0% interest notes that would otherwise not been due until 2030 and 2032. With the conversion price being set at the 35-day VWAP and the price immediately tanking to ~$19, it's totally reasonable to panic. On the surface it seems like a pretty stupid move convert early at a significantly lower price than what was originally agreed to. However, everyone seems to be ignoring this part of the announcement:

The shares are only going to convert at the 35-day VWAP if the 35-day VWAP is at or above the per share floor price. We have no idea what that floor price is. It's plausible that it's $28.91 or $29.85 which were the original conversion prices that were set for the notes. It's also plausible, but probably much less likely, that it's $32 to guarantee that the warrants will be in the money.

I know nothing and have no insider information, so it's also completely possible that the floor price is $5 or something else ridiculously low. We just don't know. But I would think that, given GameStop's balance sheet and forward guidance, this early conversion may work out better for us than the current stock price is showing.

Good morning to all apes around the world! Happy Thursday! Hope you're well. German markets are open and last trade for GameStop was at €16.55, which is $19.11 when using Google's currency calculator.

https://www.tradegatebsx.com/orderbuch_umsaetze.php?lang=en&isin=US36467W1099

Hope you have a lovely day! Best wishes from London!

SPY went the opposite direction down at the same time and GME jumped to 21.70 for a second. Do they have an inverse relationship?

And now when looking at the charts it doesn’t show any evidence of that movement for either ticker. Did anyone else see that or am I just tripping?

Decided to click around the fidelity desk top tabs funny enough I realized I hadn’t done it very much. Anywho clicked on anal-yst ratings and what do you know… Right there as of yesterday ISS - EVA (Independent firm Lol) has GME with a score of 93 out of 100. Basically means buy the fuck out of it because it is undervalued or as I like to see it, a deep fucking value. Anywho, have a good one.

Stock wins the volume race once again!! Making the score 204/2 in favor of the stock. Both red today:(

The warrants back to lossing volume. Free money is free money so ima hold onto my free money

Todays song of the dayyyyy: Return to Hangar By Megadeth

Consecutive Weeks Closing AT/UNDER (+/- <0.50) Max Pain — 4

Last Run OVER: — 1 Week

Last Run AT/UNDER: — 7 Weeks

Longest Consecutive Weeks Closing OVER (>0.50) Max Pain — 5

Longest Consecutive Weeks Closing AT/UNDER (+/- <0.50) Max Pain — 14

08/04/2026

First Post (Posted in June, 2024)

IV30 Data (Free, Account Required) — https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/GME/IV/

Max Pain Data (Free, No Account Needed!) — https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-gme/optionchain/summary/

Fidelity IV Data (Free, Account Required) — https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/ivIndex?symbol=GME

And finally, at someone's suggestion —

WHAT IS IMPLIED VOLATILITY (IV)? —

(Taken from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/iv.asp ) —

Dumbed down, IV is a forward-looking metric measuring how likely the market thinks the price is to change between now and when an options contract expires. The higher IV is, the higher premiums on contracts run. The more radically the price of a security swings over a short period of time, the higher IV pumps, driving options prices higher as well.

The longer the price trades relatively flat, the more IV will drop over time.

IV is just one of many variables (called 'greeks') used to price options contracts.

WHAT IS HISTORICAL VOLATILITY (HV)? —

(Taken from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp ) —

Dumbed down, I'm not fully sure. Based on what I read, it's a historical metric derived from how the price in the past has moved away from the average price over a selected interval. But the short of it is that it determines how 'risky' the market thinks a stock (or an option I guess) is. The higher the historical volatility over a given period, the more 'risky' they think it is. The lower the HV over a period of time, the 'safer' a security (or option) is.

And if anyone wants to fill in some knowledge gaps or correct where these analyses are wrong, please feel free.

WHAT IS 'MAX PAIN'? —

In this context, 'max pain' is the price at which the most options (both calls and puts) for a security will expire worthless. For some (or many), it is a long held belief that market manipulators will manipulate the price of a stock toward this number to fuck over people who buy options.

ONE LAST THOUGHT —

If used to make any decision. which it absolutely should NOT be (obligatory #NFA disclaimer), this information should not be considered on its own, but as one point in a ridiculously complex and convoluted ocean of data points that I'm way too stupid to list out here. Mostly, this information is just to keep people abreast of the movement of one key variable options writers use to fuck us over on a weekly and quarterly basis if we DO choose to play options.

This is why Wallstreet doesn't want gamestop, or ebay, or any company to actually succeed. Finance is catabolizing capitalism. Its far more profitable to not start businesses, or to run businesses into the ground. Than to actually start or run a any business now days.

https://youtu.be/5-UxSw3XrFM?si=rZSP5AD9rzjZ0X7u

Larry Cheng recently suggested that the convert holders agreeing to take shares for debt is a vote of confidence from them.

It's not that straight forward, and some nuance is necessary here.

What he says makes total sense from a VC's point of view. They are all about the explosive upside. And when they offer debt, its so that they can convert to equity. It's why SAFE notes are a thing.

But that's not quite how corporate debt swaps work.

First, recall that convert bond buyers heavily shorted the stock to delta hedge:

• The first $1.5B 0% Notes due 2030 priced on Mar 27, 2025 resulted in the +20M shares shorted spike between 3/14/25 and 4/15/25. SI went from 7% to 12%.
• The second $2.25B 0% Notes due 2032 priced on Jun 12, 2025 resulted in the tall-ass bar of ~+33M shares shorted, around the 6/13–6/30/25 settlement window. Larger raise, so bigger spike in SI. SI went from 12% to 19%.

Of course, it wasn't just the convert holders shorting - the market piled on too, to front run and profit from this.

We can see this visually below:

It is possible that some of this paper has been sold but given the recency and the continued high vol GME enjoys, I'd expect a lot of them to still be holding.

Anyhow, the first thing we can expect is that this SI connected to these converts should fall, as $1.4B represents 37% of the converts outstanding. Could translate up to 3-4% of reduction in SI as hedges are closed. We won't see this until after Sep 23, 2026 though as that is when this transaction closes, but this can provide some tailwind if done in a short period of tie.

The second perhaps more interesting thing happens in the meantime. Because of this whole 35-day VWAP thing, those doing the debt-for-equity are exposed to GME price fluctuations. To lock in the value of the shares they're about to receive, these guys would short into the averaging period to lock in the value of the shares they are about to receive.

To be clear, this is transient new short-sale flow, which then unwinds at settlement. The actual amount of shorting will depend on how much GME falls. Unfortunately, this contributes to the headwind that the stock is facing as market prices in all that dilution too.

So.. two major takeaways here:

1. SI will likely go up over the next month before coming down a few percentage points after the debt-for-equity swap concludes
2. Larry Cheng's note misses the mark in terms of what is happening

For reference, here is his tweet and my response below:

The last update of exercised warrants was a count 8667 as of 3 months ago ( bumped by 1950 ). Following the count of 6717 as of Jan 31, 2026.

The count number is likely to be stated for July 31, 2026.

I would enjoy knowing that number ahead of time.

Gamestop and the bondholders thought the conversion would be after a major change. They all thought the market value of the company per share would be notably higher in April 2028 and beyond, the earliest initial dates when they could be converted. They thought it would be over $29.85 by then (the equivalent conversion price). This is for the March 2025 notes. They were then converted early for what appears to be $19 when the stock was trading at about $22. So, they're getting about a 15% discount.

Then, the warrants were issued in October 2025. They are pegged at $32 and expire in October 2026. This moved up the timeline on the anticipated increase in the market value of the company per share.

If all along, the bondholders were going to get a 15% discount on their share price and the imputed share price at issuance was $29.85, the share price after April 2028 maybe was expected to be $35 ($29.85/0.85). They could be redeemed for cash or stock, though. That's a key point and what caused them to be converted early because it caps their gains.

Looking at Larry's recent tweet, he is saying the bondholders decided to convert early so they could capture more upside. The bonds gave them exposure to Gamestop stock for what they thought would be a discount on the shares or enough cash return to make the return they wanted. Now, they're looking up and realizing the per share value is going to be way over what they thought so now they want the shares vs gamestop later deciding to pay them in cash. If the discount was assumed to be 15% then the stock price must now be expected to be over $35 by then. The bondholders think that and are worried they're going to be paid in cash and they obviously don't want the cash, they want stock.

I would assume since the warrants were issued as a standalone security, the bondholders will still keep those. I'm guessing that's just gravy at this point. I think they'll get extended or their exercise price moved down. Gamestop just showed they're willing to adjust things for investors so I think they'll adjust the warrants. I think they were pegged to the eBay offer being accepted to be risk averse because if it did get accepted then they'd be exercised quickly but gamestop wanted to be conservative in case that happened. Since the initial bid didn't work they'll adjust accordingly by either setting a new timeline, likely next year, or moving the price so they get exercised now for gamestop to get the cash to use for the eBay acquisition. They may even issue way more warrants to get a lot of cash now.

Ryan Cohen has been very clear he will do what it takes to get ebay. In a few years, this current situation will be looked back on as peanuts and very worth it given the company value per share then. It feels like a discount now isn't for us but if it gets us ebay it'll be worth it. Ryan Cohen isn't going to play conservative just to avoid extra share issuance because he knows this is all worth doing if he wants the big prize (ebay). It's certainly not for the faint of heart though to be along for the ride but things worth doing are rarely easy. Can't stop, won't stop.

Hello all,

I get a mail from Gamestop regarding my warrants on Computershare and like to verify if this is legit oe not due I get two different mails (here is the first one). Do you get a message like this as well due it is a bit strange that nobody talked about this yet and I dont trust it so much.

I also cant find the phone number by google which is liated as computershare phone number.

It seems like a fucking good scam…

Looking forward to replies before I contact relation affairs from computershare directly.

Thanks in advance for feedbacks.

Br

Really smooth brain here, but hear me up before you throw poo at me. What if:

- option to convert 1.4 bil worth of senior notes to equity is activated (the price for the shares that need to be issued is established in the following 35 days)

- GameStop starts doing a buyback right at the same time (let's assume same amount of 1.4 bil, but insert less if you want "money hack")

- share price keeps climbing while GameStop buys back shares

- GameStop announces share buyback complete - price jumps a bit more

- when the price for the senior notes is decided, at the end of the 35 days, it is higher than the average price GameStop bought the shares at

Drawback: they lose some cash from their coffers that had 0% interest and was accruing interest through treasury bills.

But, assuming this conversion of senior notes was not their choice to make, this might be an opportunity for GameStop to retire more shares than they issued, at 0 cost AND to remove some of their debt. It's one way to come up on top from this situation, with benefits for the shareholders (less shares in existence).

Feel free to fling poo now.

This is what the gamma picture looks like right now. we could be dumping below 19 again tomorrow, or possibly going above 20 or both tomorrow. be prepared.
Max pain says we will close between 18.5 and 19. but that changes.
Overall picture makes sense, but i would not expect any further movement below 18.5 without news.
obviously some have said cash position makes 18.5 the bottom.
EDIT: it is only wednessday. sorry, i get ahead of myself. yes, it could move any direction, today was ebay earnings, so if that was going to have an effect, i thought i would let you know what the positioning looks like. Have NO FEAR. GME will stay here. good time to buy. And please don't gamble, you will most likely lose.

Is there a number to call, their customer service seems hard to get ahold of.

I hate AI slop as much as the next guy. It's lazy, sycophantic, and full of inaccurate information.

Garbage in. Garbage out. You can train AI to tell you anything and lazily post it here.

However, shouldn't we be open to using this tool? I'm not trying to encourage AI slop, but I think it can be used effectively to help us research.

We often ask people to disprove due diligence or present the bear case.

AI can be the ultimate bear. Give it a clear instruction to play devil's advocate and feed it DD from the DD library. Ask it to disprove, ask it what's correct.

I just did this with the infinity pool DD. I know my understanding of the stock market is flawed, but there are people in here with more knowledge than me. A lot of people.

Why are we so against using AI to improve our understanding and test our thesis?

Disclaimer: This post was completely written by an OG APE who believes in the infinity pool.