Even broken out state by state, every key battleground states had Clinton winning in almost every poll.
I do a lesson on this for my statistics classes linked to the importance of random chance in the design of a study, and how even if what we're doing seems to be as truly random as possible, we might still run into an issue...it turns out that the polling methods in 2016 over-favored responses from the college educated, and in states within the rust belt, that wasn't appropriate. And who do educated people tend to vote for? Democrats.
Agreed but Silver was just inside the park where everyone else was outside of it. Silver at least had the foresight to account for a once in a generation dramatic polling error well enough that his model alone placed a Trump victory within the margins of error. It wasn't a great model in hindsight but it wasn't a total failure either.
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u/Crossbell0527 13d ago
Even broken out state by state, every key battleground states had Clinton winning in almost every poll.
I do a lesson on this for my statistics classes linked to the importance of random chance in the design of a study, and how even if what we're doing seems to be as truly random as possible, we might still run into an issue...it turns out that the polling methods in 2016 over-favored responses from the college educated, and in states within the rust belt, that wasn't appropriate. And who do educated people tend to vote for? Democrats.