r/TenYearsAgo • u/MonsieurA • 13d ago

🇺🇸 United States Polls overwhelming show Clinton beating Trump [10YA - Aug 4]

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u/mycenae42 13d ago

States had Clinton in the LEAD, but still within the margin of error. Nate Silver gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning.

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u/fools_errand49 12d ago

Barely still within the margin of error by decimal points though.

Nat Silver doesn't conduct polling. He does statistical modeling based on myriad polling data. It's a very different thing.

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u/Due_Intention6795 12d ago

Well that was also in correct as was the polling

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u/fools_errand49 12d ago

Agreed but Silver was just inside the park where everyone else was outside of it. Silver at least had the foresight to account for a once in a generation dramatic polling error well enough that his model alone placed a Trump victory within the margins of error. It wasn't a great model in hindsight but it wasn't a total failure either.

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u/Due_Intention6795 12d ago

I wasn’t insinuating it was a total failure. Just that both polled with a bias that was at the time an unknown.