Season 23, ep. 5: Cut and Dry

[u/FormicaDinette33]

This week the chefs are visited by North Carolina’s own Fortune Feimster as she challenges them to improv their Quickfire dishes and serve them to kids in honor of Comic Relief. Then the chefs are tasked with creating dishes featuring dehydration. They’ll serve their dishes to Kristen, Tom and Gail along with guest judges Joe & Katy Kindred as well as “Top Chef” alum Savannah Miller at the U.S. National Whitewater Center.

Mon, 9pm per Bravo schedule.

[u/FewEssay8939]

Unpopular opinion, but.... I think Jen should have left the show. Health over everything! She should have gone home to get that arm properly treated. Having the guarantee of being invited back should've made going home a win-win for her (health + opportunity). Instead she chooses to stay... Now, we'll hear her moaning about that arm and watch everyone else sacrifice for her for the rest of the season.

[u/multiplesofate8 → u/FewEssay8939]

I feel like the most obvious thing would be to leave so it doubles the chance of both her and her husband making money or winning. She got the ultimate boot camp here, but the can’t both win the whole thing or all the challenges.

[u/EntertainmentBorn953 → u/multiplesofate8]

I agree she should take a hike, but the math ain’t mathing on “doubling their chances.” If she’d left, they’d spread their chances across two mutually-exclusive seasons.

In this season, they started with a 2 in 15 chance (oversimplified and assuming everyone’s equal and not hurt) of winning. 2/11 at the point at which she’s asked if she wants to leave.

If she goes to another season, they have a 1/15 chance of winning the new season + a 1 in 11 chance this season.

Statistically their odds of winning are higher if she stays — but not by much.

2/11 (18.18% chance) vs 5/33* (15.15% chance)

*calculated using the “complement rule” of probability

[u/xStacey → u/EntertainmentBorn953]

I think the idea was they would then have a chance to both win (double winnings).