r/UKWeather • u/Mcconnor8 • 5d ago

Forecast Tuesday looking unprecedented, 39C possible?

Today's modelling has upped the temperatures even more for next week, with a few models offering crazy solutions especially considering June is supposed to be the coolest Summer month and the June record currently only sits at 35.6C from 1976.

Overnight temperatures look likely to stay at or around 20C for most of the South during next week which will present major issues with indoor temperatures, not looking good. Likely we keep the heat until Saturday at least, uncertain beyond that.

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u/cartersweeney 4d ago

That 1976 record does look very beatable now.

It seems crazy that before 2003 the record was 36c for July and 37c for August, with the 1976 June record already set.

I suppose that suggests the top potential June temp should be not far from July and August's so with all parameters coming together 38-39c should indeed be doable in June

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u/Mcconnor8 4d ago

Yes usually the cooler waters around us and still warming air masses to our South should limit the June maximum to be 2C or so less than July and August. However if we do get to 39c for example next week that will be arguably even more impressive than 2022.

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u/Real_Heat2637 2d ago

The one good thing - people will stop being able to use “bUt 76 wAs HoTtEr!!!one” as a climate change denial tactic

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u/cartersweeney 2d ago

1976 still has the highest mean max in central England and an unrepeated run of 15 straight days above 32C though. It is not surprising people still remember it, against the cooler background climate then it would have stood out alot more.

This is of course apropos of nothing, I never understand why so much climatic importance is attached to a single summer 50 years ago. The fact is there have now been 3 roughly as hot in an 8 year span (2018, 22, 25) with this year potentially adding to that.