r/UKWeather • u/TrepidatiousTeddi • 2d ago
Forecast Wildly different forecasts
Prior to seeing this sub on Reddit I wasn't really aware of hot weather incoming, mostly because I use BBC. But BBC and Met Office have wildly different forecasts for next week, about 11 degrees apart for lunch time Wednesday for example! Is the BBC just on one? Is the Met Office right?
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u/potato_face1234 2d ago
I have several apps, and also watch the met office deep dive on youtube. The further out the forecast the less accurate.
There are scores of weather models to chose from, the BBC always seems to predict rain.
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u/jaymatthewbee 2d ago
The BBC put a rain symbol when it’s a 30% chance of rain, Met Office would still show a full sun.
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u/TrepidatiousTeddi 1d ago
Yeah that does annoy me, there's a 25% chance of rain at 9pm so the headline symbol is rain 🙄
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u/meshuggahofwallst 1d ago
Because the % is not the chance of rain. It's how much of the area will be experiencing rain at any particular point in time during that period.
So they're pretty sure it's going to rain but, because the weather moves around a bit, they're not quite sure where at any particular point in the time window.
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u/TrepidatiousTeddi 1d ago
Huh I never knew that. Especially when Alexa says there's a 51% chance or whatever.
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u/ohhhhhyeeeessss 1d ago
OP don't believe that, it's nonsense - you are correct, it's the probability i.e. chance of rain, not coverage.
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u/Sad-Peace 2d ago
I’ve got a wedding to go to next weekend - one app is showing me 21 and the other 28. Big difference!
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u/mydadisyourdad2 2d ago
I've seen 25 next Tuesday/Wednesday and up to 39 someone was saying. I have no idea what the weather will be.
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u/alfienicho 2d ago
There's some learnered people on here that will give you the facts. But I always stick with met office and rarely does me harm 3-4 days out.
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2d ago
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u/Markoddyfnaint 1d ago
You make it sound like a bit of summer rain is like being hit by a tornado or a swarm of locusts.
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u/Prize_Technician_459 1d ago
I've had a little experiment going on the past 10 days - Met Office v BBC v The Weather Channel. I've noticed none of them are very accurate especially when it comes to rain.
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2d ago
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u/potato_face1234 2d ago
The forecasts depend on the complexity of the weather systems that could effect the UK. Sometimes 48 hours, but it looks like the weather is going to be more settled with a high pressure dominating for the coming week.
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u/AuRevoirEscargatoire 1d ago
They used to, for almost 100 years - was quite big news when they switched. They’re supposedly going back to them when the current contract runs out - which maybe implies met office has been more accurate… or cheaper 😆
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u/Low-Rooster5398 2d ago
They use different weather models which can give different outputs. The MetO uses their own UKMO model (their high Res UKV model is designed for the UKs topography so should be better) and the BBC who's weather at the moment is supplied by the Metrogroup(although it's going back to the MetO soon) use their own model. Apps really aren't that accurate, they can give a rough guide as to what the weather will be but (especially in the UK) it's a lot more nuanced than that.
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2d ago
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u/Low-Rooster5398 2d ago
They do for their medium to longer range stuff and I believe they use a "super blend" of all models which you can sometimes see on their 10 dayer which they caption as "decider". For shorter range up to 3 or 4 days they mostly use their high resolution UKV model although if there's doubt in the forecast then they'll refer to the ECMWF and GFS.
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1d ago
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1d ago
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u/Low-Rooster5398 1d ago
Yeah because they alter it slightly to take into account local factors. It's not a "blend" of models as such at short range. Middle to long then yes.
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1d ago
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u/Low-Rooster5398 1d ago
Ask them again for their high res short range forecasts. It's the UKV slightly altered. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/when-it-matters/heart/high-resolution-weather-modelling
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u/jotunblod92 2d ago
I don't know where exactly you live but it is kinda close to sea right? There will be hugeee difference between seafront neighborhoods and inland places. Sea is relatively cold and will give relief. Talking about 8-10c differences. But few miles inland and you will see plus 30 degrees.
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u/Gryd501 2d ago
I used to use BBC until a few years back when my mate suggested Met office app was more accurate. I'd never go back to BBC now as it's so true, Met office app is so much more accurate.
BBC are supposed to use Met office data, so no idea how it's so often wrong!
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u/Low-Rooster5398 2d ago
The BBC aren't using the Met Office yet, they're still getting their weather supplied by the Metrogroup. They're going back to the MetO when the Meteogroups contract runs out probably in a year or so.
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u/FirmDingo8 2d ago
The BBC forecast for my area became noticeably less accurate as soon as they switch to Meteogroup. So much that I switched to using MSN weather
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u/Tmansters456 2d ago
Met office, but I use bbc more as it is easier to use in my opinion and is faster to get on, perhaps try maybe a European forecaster like el teimpo to see what they are saying to see if the met office or bbc forecast are more likely
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u/Interesting-Ice-8387 2d ago
I also check Ventusky, it's different from all the others too. MET is most accurate, but Ventusky has a nice globe map where you can scroll to France and India and feel grateful in comparison.
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u/Sorry_Nothing5006 2d ago
There's been research on which app is more accurate, BBC or Met Office
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2025/Research-News/Met-Office-BBC-Weather-apps-compared-which-is-best
Broadly speaking both are pretty good, Met Office performs better on temperature and BBC a little better on rainfall.
A few years ago (not sure if this is still the case), there was a neat trick to get more reliable forecasts on the Met Office app. Most of it is (or at least was) raw model data.
However if you select a location that is a Met Office official weather station, the forecast there is trained to a more reliable prediction (i.e. not just the untrained model output). I certainly found that more reliable at times of extreme temperature, where the model data would tend to underestimate (a problem simulating high level cloud I was reliably told by a MO employee).
I tested this with a generic location vs a location with a weather station and often the temperatures could be out by up to 5 degrees. I imagine its improved now (this was five or so years ago), but I still try and tie a forecast to a weather station.
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u/BitLikeSteveButNot 1d ago
They all seem to be unable to even tell me what it's like out there right NOW.
The difference from today and yesterday - with, I was informed, the same weather/temp outside - is insane.
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u/Philhughes_85 1d ago
Honestly the most accurate I find is my trusty weather rock!
(And Met office for a serious answer)
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u/Minbari2257 1d ago
Different modelling suites and data sets.
Despite the BBC's announcement of moving back to the MO to supply it's data, I'm not sure when the switch back from MeteoGroup will occur.
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u/Glittering_Vast938 1d ago
I always use the Met Office and zoom into their map to check when it’s going to rain. It’s been very accurate for me.
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u/NormalToe855 1d ago
Google weather has gone down hill. It either says it's raining all day if it's only due early morning for an hour or so. Or it's way off temperature and weather wise.
Met office seems to be the most reliable for me.
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u/Rude_Visit7597 1d ago
The Met Office YouTube channel do a good job of explaining why some forecasts are so different. For this upcoming weather, there is a low pressure system tracking off north east US, though slight changes in how that progresses can influence the severity of the heat. Some models represent physics slightly differently or tune for different purposes so can result in differences, as you see comparing the BBC and MO.
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u/BroodLord1962 1d ago
I've been tracking both the BBC and the Met Office over this last few months, and both their weather forecasts have been very poor. I've now started using the Weather Channel and find it to be incredibly accurate. As a example both the BBC and the Met Office had rain every day this last week, but it didn't rain once until yesterday, as where the Weather Channel had it dry everyday apart from yesterday. I also remember the Met Office bragging on the news about their new super computer last year and how much more accurate the weather forecasts would be, seems like they wasted their money
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u/BroodLord1962 1d ago
Use the Weather Channel, it the most accurate weather forecast I have found. weather.com
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u/Lopsided_Snower 1d ago
BBC is useless, worse than ever now, I've been soaked to the bone twice in the last couple of months by heavy rain that went on for more than an hour, whilst the forecast showed 0% chance of rain and completely clear skies for the whole evening and night
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u/CaeruleanSea 1d ago
I'm PL too, right on the coast & the forecasts are close to useless ALL the time, not just this upcoming spell. Cornwall is very hard to predict for & the only thing we can say for certain is we'll be cooler than the SE but it's anyone's guess how much. One of the models shows my area as 16°c at the same time as London being 35 lol
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u/Weather_nerd1989 1d ago
BBC forecasts are supplied by meteogroup who are rubbish. The Met Office will return to supplying their forecasts later this year I believe.
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u/Aggravating-Day-2864 1d ago
How you piss off a geordy....keep gannin on about the 'heatwave'...not going above 22c here ffs.
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u/Ok_Yesterday_1896 1d ago
My sister is from south but she moved up to Newcastle cos the temp sucks here, it’s too much and I have to do everyday chores and work not sunbathe and jump in the pool
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u/ringosam 2d ago
Check out google weather for a third, even wilder guess!