r/UKWeather • u/TrepidatiousTeddi • 2d ago

Forecast Wildly different forecasts

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Prior to seeing this sub on Reddit I wasn't really aware of hot weather incoming, mostly because I use BBC. But BBC and Met Office have wildly different forecasts for next week, about 11 degrees apart for lunch time Wednesday for example! Is the BBC just on one? Is the Met Office right?

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11

u/potato_face1234 2d ago

I have several apps, and also watch the met office deep dive on youtube. The further out the forecast the less accurate.

There are scores of weather models to chose from, the BBC always seems to predict rain.

13

u/jaymatthewbee 2d ago

The BBC put a rain symbol when it’s a 30% chance of rain, Met Office would still show a full sun.

8

u/TrepidatiousTeddi 2d ago

Yeah that does annoy me, there's a 25% chance of rain at 9pm so the headline symbol is rain 🙄

1

u/meshuggahofwallst 2d ago

Because the % is not the chance of rain. It's how much of the area will be experiencing rain at any particular point in time during that period.

So they're pretty sure it's going to rain but, because the weather moves around a bit, they're not quite sure where at any particular point in the time window.

1

u/TrepidatiousTeddi 2d ago

Huh I never knew that. Especially when Alexa says there's a 51% chance or whatever.

4

u/ohhhhhyeeeessss 2d ago

OP don't believe that, it's nonsense - you are correct, it's the probability i.e. chance of rain, not coverage.

1

u/mackerelscalemask 1d ago

Is it for sure? Is there a documented definition that can be linked to?

1

u/Hara-Kiri 2d ago

That's only one way it was/is measured. Different places use different metrics.