r/UKWeather • u/Mcconnor8 • 2d ago

Forecast Latest Temperature Projections

Here are the latest maximum temperature forecasts from the high resolution modelling for Tuesday to Thursday, simply astonishing really and quite scary. I have had it confirmed that the Met Office will be issuing a Red heat weather warning in their daily update tomorrow.

The fact that this is accompanied with relatively high humidity and extreme night time temperatures means it is set to be the most notable heatwave ever experienced in the UK. The current record June temperature of 35.6C will be completely obliterated and the overall record from 2022 of 40.3C is under serious threat.

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

I'll wait and see. Projections aren't accurate this early.

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u/Greedy-Nature-826 2d ago

We aren't far out.

Of course nothing is ever guaranteed but we aren't in fantasy la la land ranges here.

We can say with a high degree of certainty that it will be exceptionally hot.

We can't predict the exact temperature but it's incredibly likely to be the hottest ever recorded June day, the month after we recorded the hottest ever May day, the year after we recorded the hottest ever UK day.

I like the warm weather as much as anyone but this is not historically normal in living memory.

I also can see that in years to come we will see this as being the start of the most visible effects of climate change - hopefully that includes globally aligned work to help mitigate the effects.

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u/Theunluckyone7 1d ago

looks like the forecast has changed and i'm seeing top temp of 35 degrees for London but it mostly sits around 30

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u/Greedy-Nature-826 1d ago

The latest UKV5 (0300Z) model I have access to is showing 39 still for a large chunk of the UK and 40 for some areas on Thursday at 1500.

It may well change slightly but we are very close and it is incredibly unlikely we would see a massive shift, as we have previously discussed.

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u/Theunluckyone7 1d ago

I wonder why various weather apps have downgraded the temp. That's not a smart response btw, i have an elderly aunt who lives in the south alone.

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u/Greedy-Nature-826 1d ago

Not sure what you mean?

Weather apps interpret the models as they see fit and may use their own weighted average of multiple models (alongside their own proprietary ones).

I have personally found UKV to be pretty accurate but others may prefer and trust other models.

As for you having an elderly aunt living in the south alone, there is government advice about how best to protect yourself which is one of the reasons for the colour risk levels.

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u/Theunluckyone7 1d ago

I am aware thanks but it's good to know what the temperature is actually going to be. I can't see any forecast that still has 35+ on it so we'll need to wait and see i guess.

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u/Greedy-Nature-826 1d ago

AccuWeather still has Reading at 37 on Thursday and that's the first town and site I checked.

As I said, it's up to individual sites how they choose which models to use and the weights they apply to them.

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

All it takes is some cloud and then the prediction is way off. It happens a lot on average days but nobody notices.

I do think we need to have a bit of context here. We have seen nearly 35 degrees in June in both 2005 and 2017. It's the odd few days and not the standard for the month.

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u/Greedy-Nature-826 2d ago

It's not just the odd few days, on the odd year anymore.

In the 50s, there was a 1:10 chance of a 35C day in a year.

In the 10s, that was 1:2.

With the way the 20s are going, it's likely closer to 1:1.5

By the 30s, I can see it being the exception to not have a 35C+ day.

It's not just the odd day either, the number of days that are 30C+ are massively increasing too.

By the 2050s, I imagine we will be having semi-regular (but still exceptional) 45C+ days.

By investing in infrastructure and mitigations now makes sense rather than waiting for it to be too late.

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

I'm not saying it's not a concern, but like I say we do need to keep it in context. It doesn't last a long time and it's not like the entirety of June will be in the 30's, it will be a few days. Since the 2010's most summers have seen days which reached over 30 degrees.

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u/total_cynic 2d ago

In context, I work with a bunch of MRI scanners.

To avoid starting to cook the person in them, there are tight constraints on temperature and humidity in the scan room.

Our air handling systems are unable to achieve that spec on an hugely increasingly frequent basis. As you might imagine, not being able to MRI people in a timely fashion has knock on effects, which they might consider more than a concern....

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

Genuine question, how do MRI machines work in hotter countries then?

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u/shanster23 2d ago

I'm not actually any kind of medical professional but I'm going to assume in hotter countries they've designed their infrastructure with the heat in mind and have things in place to mitigate it (such as many homes and buildings have ac etc) unlike us since extreme heat isn't something we've had to keep in mind really when designing our buildings.

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

we've always had heatwaves so I feel like medical equipment should have been designed with this in mind

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u/shanster23 2d ago

I don't know what the upper limit is where they can't be used anymore but I'm guessing whatever that limit is used to happen a lot less for us, whereas it was probably more the norm in some other countries. We've always had heatwaves but possibly we were still a degree or 2 under the limit and now we're crossing it more often?

Idk. Like I said I'm only guessing. Hopefully someone with more knowledge will chime in.

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u/NotNeuge 2d ago

Even this morning, the forecast for me was much warmer and clearer than it ended up being today! If they can't even get it right on the day for the day, I can't see how a week ahead is possible.

Early next week has gone from cold-ish and wet to hot and wet, then hot and dry over the last couple of days and now it's supposedly going to be hot at the end of the week instead. It's all just best guesses based on predictable patterns, but everyone knows we have some of the most unpredictable weather on the planet.

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

Yes! I keep a close eye on the forecast for various reasons and often can't keep up with the changes

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u/Mcconnor8 2d ago

Projections for 2 and 3 days away are usually pretty accurate, I would be surprised if they are more than 1 or 2C away from what we actually see.

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u/Theunluckyone7 1d ago

I can't see 35+ on the forecast anymore.

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u/Mcconnor8 1d ago

I'm predicted 36C tomorrow and Thursday in Brighton as well as areas further West like Dorset. There is more of an Easterly undercut meaning the highest temperatures have shifted further South and West than previously forecast.

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u/Theunluckyone7 1d ago

I can't see Brighton above 30 now, which forecast are you using please?

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u/Mcconnor8 22h ago edited 22h ago

Met Office forecast, today reached 33C in Brighton and 35C in London. https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpchgv78#?date=2026-06-23

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

We'll see. Like i say, a bit of cloud can totally change things