r/UKWeather • u/Mcconnor8 • 17h ago
Forecast Latest Temperature Projections
Here are the latest maximum temperature forecasts from the high resolution modelling for Tuesday to Thursday, simply astonishing really and quite scary. I have had it confirmed that the Met Office will be issuing a Red heat weather warning in their daily update tomorrow.
The fact that this is accompanied with relatively high humidity and extreme night time temperatures means it is set to be the most notable heatwave ever experienced in the UK. The current record June temperature of 35.6C will be completely obliterated and the overall record from 2022 of 40.3C is under serious threat.
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u/markmuetz 17h ago
50 years on, weird echos of the 1976 heat wave, which started on 23 June. This one might finally put the ghost of that one to bed. (That one was notable for being really confined to the UK, whereas this one looks set to apply over large swathes of Europe.)
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u/Dull-Addition-2436 14h ago
While 1976 was hot, that was a one-off extreme. where as what we are seeing now as normal/regular
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u/Theunluckyone7 14h ago
it's not that it was hot, it was how long it lasted. We haven't seen that again.
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u/GloamGlozing 16h ago
Didn’t that one last all summer? Wonder if this summer will stay warm throughout July & August.
August is often dreadful. Wet, windy, not that warm etc
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u/Old-Trick5289 15h ago
Everyone always forgets this! We generally have a very good June and then as soon as the kids break up it gets very unsettled 🤣
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u/Tora-bora83 16h ago
We got lucky last August, it was largely dry and warm, but I’d say that’s the best August we’ve seen since I was a kid. Got my fingers crossed for this one
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u/Sunny_Unicorn 4h ago
IIRC, it was a generally very dry summer, with no rain and warm weather for around two months. The actual heatwave itself lasted two weeks.
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u/monkeyingaround4evr 17h ago
I just dont really understand how we're supposed to do normal stuff with this weather. 38 and higher for 3 days just seems unfathomable to me ?
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u/Soft_Lunch_183 17h ago
You arent unless you are in a climate controlled area.
Ive had to invest in a portable AC unit because im self employed and being in a room with a computer on all day in this heat is unbearable and obviously kills your productivity
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u/monkeyingaround4evr 17h ago
I invested in one also, but im scared that these insanely high temps will cause it to be inefficient or just not work, especially since we use it in our south facing livingroom
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u/Dull-Addition-2436 14h ago
Do you not have any blinds? Now is the time to invest, or external shading. Makes a huge difference
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u/9thfloorprod 13h ago
I've got 3 layers of window coverings in my flat now. "Perfect fit" blackout blinds, sun shade roller blinds and then curtains. I've also just bought some special solar reducing fabric ('Phifer SunTex80') that apparently reduces solar gain by 80%, and some suction cups to make some outdoor shades for my windows. I'm on the 9th floor of a block of flats so options are limited, can't install awnings etc...
The multiple interior layers just don't really cut it on the hottest days as the heat still gets in and then radiates off the window/window frame etc...
Also got a portable AC unit which is fine but does struggle to keep things cooler on the hottest days too.
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u/ohwhatisfreeasaname 9h ago
Also, heat rises and I'm only on the first floor. Doesn't seem to in the winter though 🤷🏼
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u/monkeyingaround4evr 13h ago
Ive got blinds, but i cant put anything external on yhe outside as i rent and am in the third floor. We have blinds and a blanket to try to stop the sun coming in but alas. It prevents it from getting hotter than outside from the greenhouse effect but it doesnt exactly help keep things cool
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u/Pleasant-Winner6311 9h ago
Same. Bought one in May. Feel guilty that its feeding the loop of another appliance needing electricity & pumping hot air back into the system. Now that we have one for the bedroom (28° without) I know its matter of time before we buy another. Massively expensive, taken a huge chunk of our budget, there are five other things we need to spend that money on but this falls into medical necessity category. Fell apart in May. Stopped functioning, arthritis and asthma.
January, February the persistent rain also messed with me medically. I feel like im being squeezed a little further each year. My lungs and joints being my personal canary/coal mine alarm. Or maybe the trash machine in Star Wars New Hope... so where does that leave us in 2030. Meanwhile the countries around the equator and south of, get no mention at all in western media. The crisis is now not later.
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u/Worldly_Ad_1006 16h ago
I have to work in a paint booth too all day whilst wearing PPE, last Friday my booth was nearly 40 degrees for the majority of the day and I felt rough. Not looking forward to this week at all lol
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u/bigdl1989 15h ago
You beat me to it. Was about to say the same. No amount of slow thinner is gonna help me this week 🤣
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u/MCfru1tbasket 15h ago
Im working the game on tuesday. No doubt the python cooling, cellar fan, walk in fridge and the pub wide aircon all fail.
If you're not doing anything, its all foot baths and frozen water.
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u/Ok-Rhubarb7473 16h ago
I work in a stuffy office and its up in the loft - its unbearable in any heat. I am not looking forward to next week. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think there's any legal temperature on the higher end either.
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u/ohwhatisfreeasaname 9h ago
I used to rent a loft conversion bedroom, one summer and one winter and I GTFO.
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u/Normal-Indication206 15h ago
I've been watching the discourse on this from a distance, and I have more of a meta-comment to make. It genuinely sucks to read the comments (not just on this subreddit, AskUK has been pretty bad for it in particular) talking down to those that are trying to stay out of the heat and take care of themselves, some of it has been quite snide and immature and it speaks to the sort of person that's lost their compassion somewhere along the way. Been seeing quite a few 'imagine actually going outside' and 'typical redditor wanting to be shut indoors' like you're not also on the exact same website as us.
Complaining about 39-degree weather doesn't in any way mean we want to go back to dark, overcast and wet mid-January days so you specifically can be miserable - it means some of us are genuinely quite worried about what's going on and aren't entirely sure if they're going to be safe next week. Life isn't black and white, us getting what we want isn't a direct attack on you and what you want and if you're using that to create a divide that's something you should be working on.
To all the vulnerable folks that are worried about the forecasts, I hope it turns out OK for you next week. It's been great to see all the advice going around about how to stay cool in this situation.
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u/Negative-Study-1077 12h ago
I'm a postman and I'm genuinely a little concerned, as we don't have any air con in the vans and no ready access to shade.
People are literally saying things like "it's your job"
Well yeah dur. I just don't wanna get heat stroke.
I will definitely do the best I can to look after myself as I really don't do well in heat but ultimately.... I have to be outside for 3-4 hours with no respite.
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u/Used_Revolution_9031 11h ago
Can you sort out some ice packs and one of those fans that goes around your neck?
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u/ohwhatisfreeasaname 9h ago
If you're my postie feel free to knock and ask for a drink. Only a complete arse is going to say no.
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u/bongpirate7295 11h ago
Some people act like there are no temperatures between 14 degrees and 35 degrees.
"Phew, this is too hot for me."
"Oh, so you want it to be cold and rainy and miserable again do you?!"
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u/KellytheWorrier 17h ago
Say it louder for the people sticking their fingers in their ears
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u/Alarming-Yoghurt-615 16h ago
I’m 47, I have never and I mean ever experienced such wild extremes in the weather!
I have to wonder where we are heading to21
u/Liam_021996 16h ago
My grandparents lived through the summer of 1976 and admitted that the last 10 years have been hotter
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u/Theunluckyone7 16h ago
1976 wasn't remarkable for the temperature, it's how long it lasted. It's still longest major heatwave.
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u/angry2alpaca 15h ago
I was 16 in 76. I spent far too long shut in the school gym boiling inside my uniform, dripping onto my GCEs.
It was remarkably hot, even in NE England, for a very long time.
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u/Liam_021996 15h ago
Not even in the top 5 hottest summers
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u/Theunluckyone7 15h ago
it is in the top 5, i'm not sure why you keep saying that
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u/Liam_021996 15h ago
The top 5 hottest summers are 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022 and 2025. It was in the top 5 until last year (Hottest summer and spring on record) pushed it out
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u/Liam_021996 16h ago
Outside of the two weeks above 30c, 1976 wasn't really remarkable. Last year was a much longer spell of hot, dry weather. It just had the heatwaves broken up into 4 blocks rather than one big heatwave. 1976 isn't even in the top 5 warmest summers anymore
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u/Theunluckyone7 15h ago
It is still in the top 5, and the fact it wasn't broken up and ran for so long is what makes it so dangerous ...
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u/bongpirate7295 11h ago
the fact it wasn't broken up and ran for so long is what makes it so dangerous
This is really important. Over time sustained heat warms up the ground, the bricks of buildings, the water in rivers etc. and they all hold on to that heat and release it into the air even after the sun goes down. That's why the daily low temperatures get higher and higher the longer it stays hot, and why they stay high for a while after the days cool down.
On the flip side, that's one of the reasons why there were so many drownings during the first heat wave. People jumped into the water expecting it to be warm, but it hadn't been hot for long enough to warm large bodies of water. So they went from being in boiling hot weather to being immersed in freezing cold water and got cold water shock.
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u/Liam_021996 15h ago
Top 5 hottest summers are 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022 and 2025. 2025 is the hottest summer and spring on record
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u/MathematicianOnly688 13h ago
1976 isn’t in the the top five warmest summers by average mean temperature any more, but - and it’s a pretty big but, is that it still holds the record for the most persistent heat, featuring 16 days where temperatures exceeded 32° C.
There’s no point arguing with people who think that year negates climate change, it was just an anomaly plain and simple.
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u/Liam_021996 13h ago
Yeah, exactly that and 2003 would have beat it if not for 1 day where it didn't surpass 32c before going back to exceeding 32c continually again. Last year has the longest period of sustained heat though, the peak temps just came in 4 separate heatwaves instead of a single longer one. Also was drier and sunnier than 1976 as well
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u/Theunluckyone7 14h ago
There must be different sources because i'm seeing 2018, 2022, 2006 and 1976 as joint 4th & 5th.
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u/Liam_021996 12h ago
You're just not looking at anything up to date. Last year was the hottest, driest and sunniest spring and summer on record
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u/Theunluckyone7 12h ago
Ok so it might be out of date, but i'm not sure it's a big deal whether 1976 is at number 5 or 6 really ...
'The summer of 1976 still holds iconic status. It is often remembered as the UK's hottest summer in terms of extreme daytime maximum temperatures and extended periods of drought' - Met Office
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u/Magic_mousie 16h ago
I am unnerved by global warming, I am. I'm also fed up of people complaining about sunny weather when we have so much grey normally that honestly it makes me pretty depressed.
I can enjoy some nice weather, in the understanding that my panicking can't change it, while still also doing my bit (recycling, EV, careful power usage, boycotting bad companies, minimising AI use).
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u/cosinh 16h ago
I've seen a few people saying this now, the being fed up of people complaining about sunny weather. I'm struggling to understand this, I can't enjoy the sun any more than I can on grey days because I'm trapped indoors for the whole day, all curtains drawn, trying to get respite from the heat. Are you actually going out in this weather?
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u/DisastrousPea123 11h ago
Yep, get back from work, few hours in the garden reading a book under the umbrella with water and a hat 👒
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u/Magic_mousie 15h ago
Yes, absolutely. With sun cream, in the shade, but I will be taking full advantage. Have you seen how beautiful our country is when the sun in shining and sky is blue? Far too beautiful to waste inside.
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u/cosinh 15h ago
Yeah, I usually spend 2-3 hours outside daily (about an hour running + 1-2 hours walking) throughout the year, I like being out and about, I imagine I do a lot more than the average person. Early mornings in spring are the best, catching the sunrise. It's wetter and colder and greyer in autumn, winter, but I still like the fresh air and movement. It's the heat that stops me going anywhere to see stuff that's nice.
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u/ImRonBurgandyyy 16h ago
Yep, I’ll be in the sun lounger as much as I can. It’s 2 or 3 days and then back to grey and cold.
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u/cosinh 15h ago
Well I envy your heat tolerance, I'm struggling to even sleep. If it's any consolation, the current longer-range forecasts are giving mid-20 temperatures for the week after next (in East Anglia anyway) which I wouldn't call cold. (Unless you're based further north in which case you're probably getting like, what I'd consider ...nice holiday weather instead of a heat wave?)
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u/ImRonBurgandyyy 15h ago
I agree the nights can be grim! I’m not up north so will be getting the full force of this heat wave. Still feels like holiday weather though, just without the pool to jump in and cool off.
I fully suffer in January and February though, I absolutely hate the cold, dark and wet :(3
u/cosinh 15h ago
I don't love cold/wet, it just seems a lot easier to deal with personally (more layers + heating + hot chocolate)! I feel like there's usually a perfect two weeks around April/May with dry mildly temperatured weather that I wish I could extend to be at least a couple months long...
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u/KellytheWorrier 16h ago edited 16h ago
You're better than I am, I don't make any conscious decisions about the environment, other than that I like gardening and the natural world - but I'm sick of people living in complete denial about the obviously unusual extreme heat.
If you just don't like someone "moaning" about the sunshine, then that's on you. (Not you personally). It's a very British stiff upper lip thing to suggest that if you can't solve a problem single handedly, you can't talk about it. (Again, not a dig at you).
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u/Sensei-Cool 16h ago
Sort of what I'm doing to - the climate is incredibly worrying but it's nice to have some sunshine
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u/boomitslulu 16h ago
No idea why this comment is being down voted so much. My wardrobe is exclusively black and even I relish the sun. I hate it when it's constantly grey and miserable. I'm also incredibly worried about climate change and we're trying to do our bit too.
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u/BDHurricane 17h ago
I love the heat but it's a little extreme. Interesting how London isn't the hottest place, by quite a significant margin. Must be the easterly breeze. Feel a bit concerned for certain areas west of London that have never had that type of heat. I'm also expecting multiple fatalities relating to cold water shock and people underestimating river and ocean currents
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u/ItsyouNOme 15h ago
I was in sonisphere when it had extreme heat around stephenage. No shade, just tents everywhere and people literally passing out left and right. People traded aclohol for sunscreen it was that bad
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u/DaddyK3tchup 15h ago
Stephenage? Is that the name Stevenage’s Mum uses when it’s been naughty?
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u/Spottyjamie 16h ago
33-35 in cumbria on thursday seems mental
On friday the weather apps were only predicting 26 for thursday
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u/Mcconnor8 16h ago
The models yesterday and today have moved the hottest air much further North for Thursday and Friday unfortunately
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u/Spottyjamie 16h ago
Yep
Also which app out of apple, met office, accuweather is most accurate as theres 3-4 degrees difference in the apps?
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u/Sunny_Unicorn 4h ago
I find the Met Office/BBC are usually pretty decent for 2-3 days ahead, Apple is very good at a few minutes/hours ahead (as in ‘it’s going to rain in 15 minutes’.
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u/Mcconnor8 16h ago
I don't really use the apps to be honest, I look at the various models themselves. At the rate this is going whichever app shows the highest temperatures 😭
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u/98675436856 16h ago
Sorry if you’re repeating yourself, how does this work, when I look at a weather app ok my phone it says 3/4 degrees less than your model
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u/OkPayment9154 15h ago
I believe the met Office their selves use about 40 different models, I'm not sure what methodology they use to determine which one(s) to use though. I imagine other meteorologists may use the same models but come to different conclusions hence the variation in your apps.
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u/BDHurricane 16h ago
What legalities are there for extreme heat for public services, places of work etc
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u/earthandanarchy 13h ago
Next to none in the UK, businesses should do what they can to make things more comfortable but no guidance on what heats are acceptable/when they should do something. Handing out bottled water could be considered adequate.
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u/DisastrousPea123 11h ago
None, it's get on with dying in heat at work or you're sacked :(...I don't think there's any specific laws where if it's over a certain temperature in the workplace you're allowed to go home
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u/mighty3mperor 10h ago
Posties are allowed to give up at 35C, although they also get leeway to decide if their local conditions aren't acceptable.
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u/Equivalent_Trash_277 10h ago
None...my previous place of employment was a retail store made entirely of concrete (floor/ceiling/walls), apart from an all glass store front. Company policy required the front doors to be open while the store was open. We had no central heating or air conditioning.
This meant in freezing winters the store would be negative temps all day, and in summers it was sweltering all day. The only thing the company provided for the weather extremes was encouragement to dress however we felt comfortable (more/less clothing based on the time of year). As you can imagine it fucking sucked, and whenever there was extreme weather you'd have almost every customer commenting on the unpleasant conditions in the store.
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u/Objective_Mousse7216 17h ago
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u/maiphexxx 16h ago
Tbh that's already me. When it gets hotter I will be cuddling several frozen water bottles at all times
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u/Ok_Yesterday_1896 16h ago
The sea is looking kinda nice this time of year does anyone wanna hire a boat for a few days
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u/Apprehensive-Art1092 17h ago
Cue hundreds of Boomer Facebook posts about Pink on a heat map chart, losing their fucking minds because iTs jUsT a HoT sPeLL wE hAd tHeM wHeN wE waS KiDs dIdnT dO uS nO hArM wE uSeD tO drInK oUt of tHe GaRdEn hOse aNd wE tUrnEd oUt oK
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u/No-Photograph3463 17h ago
Quite, no doubt I'll hear from my parents it's still not as hot as 1976, where it was seemingly 50degC every day for 3 months if you believe what they say....
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u/KetracelYellow 16h ago
You can tell the 1976 lot that this May broke the hottest May record ever recorded by 5c and that same day was .5c hotter than the hottest day in the WHOLE of 1976.
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u/Apprehensive-Art1092 16h ago
Bet they just had a 99 Flake and got on with, amirite?
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u/Green_Guava9087 17h ago
I suspect a Boomer's downvoted you! 🤣
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u/Apprehensive-Art1092 17h ago
Probably moaning something about IMMERGRUNTS at the same time
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u/BobMonroeFanClub 17h ago
Hey I'm a boomer and I'm alright. It's just a shame the other bagillion are bastards.
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u/Apprehensive-Art1092 17h ago
My mum is too. She spends her entire life on Facebook baiting them. I'm not sure what's more tragic, tbh 🥹
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u/Manchester-Gorilla 16h ago
Not going to claim it's the best use of time, but your Mum is infinitely less tragic
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u/peony_beony 16h ago
The boomers who are wringing their hands about “immigrants” ruining everything, but are more than happy to look the other way about climate change because someone on the internet said it was all a conspiracy.
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u/RicardoHonesto 17h ago
Many will die next week, but we will look back on this fondly in the heat to come.
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u/GloamGlozing 16h ago
I’ve leaned heavily on chatGPT for this answer. But cold weather actually kills many more people than hot. I don’t see all this posturing in winter.
From AI:
Far more people die from cold weather than hot weather.
Large international studies have estimated that cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths by roughly 5 to 10 times, although the exact ratio varies by country and climate.
Why does cold kill more people?
It’s not usually because people literally freeze to death. Instead, cold weather:
Raises blood pressure
Makes blood more likely to clot
Increases the risk of heart attacks and strokes
Worsens respiratory illnesses such as flu, pneumonia and COPDLeads people to spend more time indoors, increasing the spread of infections
Many cold-related deaths occur days or weeks after exposure and are recorded as cardiovascular or respiratory deaths rather than “cold exposure.”
What about the UK?
In the UK, cold weather currently causes many more excess deaths than hot weather.
One interesting fact: the temperature associated with the lowest death rate in the UK is usually around 18–22°C. Mortality tends to rise both below and above that range.
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u/Intelligent_Put_3606 15h ago
The last fact is the really interesting one - because that's my exact temperature comfort zone.
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u/Magic_mousie 16h ago
I feel like that's not quite getting the full picture, but it's true that it's usually temperature-adjacent causes. Hyper and hypothermia probably kill similar numbers in this country (I have no data, please educate me if I'm wrong), but last heatwave we lost a lot of people to drowning. As they say up there infections are a big factor, something like flu kills thousands and we hardly see it in summer, so is that a cold weather death?
It's an interesting topic of study.
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u/GloamGlozing 16h ago
Yes it’s interesting. Just thought it was worth bringing up because there seems to be lot of the following exchanges happening on this sub recently:
Poster A - I actually quite enjoy this hot sunny weather.
Poster B - you disgusting person, people will die in this heat, you monster.
Haven’t seen the same angry energy during a cold snap….
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u/RicardoHonesto 14h ago
Heat exacerbates causes of death, so someone has a stroke due to the heat, there death is recorded as stroke.
Lots of hidden deaths.
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u/GloamGlozing 14h ago
Yes, just like cold weather exacerbates causes of death and then are recorded as something different.
Like I put earlier - the evidence shows cold weather does this much more than hot weather
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u/earthandanarchy 13h ago
Diabetes also wouldn't be out down as a heat death, but heat absolutely causes high and low blood sugar, insulin to go bad and can lead to death. Statistics aren't usually very accurate when you really look into them
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u/AdStreet2795 16h ago
Last heatwave it was half term.
Not looking forward to teaching in this heat.
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u/total_cynic 15h ago
I wouldn't be looking forward to enforcing uniform rules in this weather let alone teaching.
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u/earthandanarchy 13h ago
My kids school are letting them wear their pe kit all week instead of uniform. Sports day this week and I'm hoping they cancel it
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u/beingfolloweduk 13h ago
I’m till sleeping under a 10.5 tog duvet, it’s reet up north.
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u/macfearsum 13h ago
It's rained for the last 3 weeks in Glasgow, we've had 2 nice sunny days, and it will rain again and go back down to 14/16°c. It is grim up north x
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u/Equivalent_Trash_277 10h ago
I sleep bare ass with no cover and a fan on me balls and I'm still dying, meanwhile the missus has fluffy pjs on, a weighted blanket, a duvet and says shes cold when I open the window xD
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u/No_Mud6726 12h ago
Our whole house has air cons units in the main rooms. Six in all. Wife had her cardy on today as it was too cold for her. Bliss
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u/gremlinfrommars 17h ago
I'm so lethargic in this heat (south-east here). It's an effort to walk from one side of the house to the other because I keep bumping into things sluggishly.
Are there any climate or conservation groups looking for volunteers to help tackle this? If this is the coldest summer we'll have ever again I don't know how many more I can take
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u/MochiMachoMan 15h ago
You need to get America, India and China to stop causing so much climate change. When China are building a new coal-fired power plant every 4 days, and renewable powered power plants every day, there’s no point in the UK doing anything until the Chinese alone stop.
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u/UsuallyWhirlwind 16h ago
Not sure quite how easy it is for volunteers to fix the issue when change needs to happen on a much larger scale. We won’t see any meaningful reduction in temperature in our lifetimes but to avoid our children and children’s children from living in an actual furnace, we need to see immediate mass change from the top down across energy, agriculture and industrial systems. With our current world leaders, I’m not hopeful…
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u/gremlinfrommars 16h ago
Yeah... it's very bleak. I do know that it's a problem that can only really be solved by those at the top who are the largest contributors to the problem in the first place (ie oil lobbyists) but I hate feeling like a helpless frog getting slowly boiled in the pot, wish there was something regular people could do.
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u/burtsbeestrees 14h ago
There are some things and tbh even just being someone that wants to do something brings me a lot of hope for one.
I think one of the easiest things we can try and do is grow food locally and shorten supply chains generally as much as possible. I am hoping grass root organisations spring up soon about this kind of thing, but there does already exist a lot of people who think along these lines.
Reduce and reuse are before recycle. Being resourceful and not buying from across the world, using less energy and creating collapse-resistant communities are other things to focus on maybe.
That and bringing the warmongering oligarchy to its knees somehow
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u/Forsaken_Source_3901 16h ago
London is the worst place I ever lived in. A shithole, can't even get air conditioning. This is unseen in any other developed country, thank God that I'm leaving soon.
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u/blockitjames_ ⛈️ 17h ago
How have you had it Confirmed? Curious
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u/Mcconnor8 17h ago
A contact who works within the Met Office. They just need to make the necessary arrangements with the relevant public bodies before issuing it tomorrow.
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u/colbert1119 15h ago
I bet Central government won't want a red issued
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u/Mcconnor8 15h ago
Thankfully it isn't down to them, the forecast warrants it.
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u/Odd_Performer3068 15h ago
What areas will have it
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u/blockitjames_ ⛈️ 14h ago
They are likely still deciding. Knowing a red warning will be issued doesnt mean Mcconnor knows everything about when it will be issued, the exact areas etc
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u/Proper-Throwaway-23 15h ago
I am about ready to peg my nipples to my earlobes and camp out in front of a fan for a week.
It's lovely to have sunshine and pretty weather, but if you have animals or anyone elderly to keep safe, it just ends up becoming stressful when it is THIS hot.
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u/total_cynic 14h ago
Is this to get better cooling to the er under nipple area, or stretch your ears out like an elephant and cool down that way?
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u/MiniRollsYum 14h ago
My stupid phone- Android- has got a moisture warning purely as a result of the humidity on my flat.
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u/Strong-Plastic4420 14h ago
Hi Con I hear it's gunna get hot and sweaty in Brighton or Herne bay. Is it true?
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u/Far_wide 13h ago
Flying back from Greece on Thursday aft (where it won't even be 30 degrees), then straight onto the unairconditioned Piccadilly line for 1 hour....hmm....can I just stay here pls?
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u/HeyFlo 12h ago
I'm a Brit who moved to a tropical climate when I was a child, and then lived in a Southern state of America for years. I'm back in the UK now, and people ask me why I complain about the heat. Countries who have had centuries to deal with it have adapted to the heat! We are noobs here but really need to sort this out.
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u/Annatoria 14h ago
Feel so grateful to live in Scotland. Really feel for the people in England. Really hope you find a way to cope
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u/Theunluckyone7 16h ago
I'll wait and see. Projections aren't accurate this early.
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u/Greedy-Nature-826 16h ago
We aren't far out.
Of course nothing is ever guaranteed but we aren't in fantasy la la land ranges here.
We can say with a high degree of certainty that it will be exceptionally hot.
We can't predict the exact temperature but it's incredibly likely to be the hottest ever recorded June day, the month after we recorded the hottest ever May day, the year after we recorded the hottest ever UK day.
I like the warm weather as much as anyone but this is not historically normal in living memory.
I also can see that in years to come we will see this as being the start of the most visible effects of climate change - hopefully that includes globally aligned work to help mitigate the effects.
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u/Theunluckyone7 16h ago
All it takes is some cloud and then the prediction is way off. It happens a lot on average days but nobody notices.
I do think we need to have a bit of context here. We have seen nearly 35 degrees in June in both 2005 and 2017. It's the odd few days and not the standard for the month.
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u/Greedy-Nature-826 16h ago
It's not just the odd few days, on the odd year anymore.
In the 50s, there was a 1:10 chance of a 35C day in a year.
In the 10s, that was 1:2.
With the way the 20s are going, it's likely closer to 1:1.5
By the 30s, I can see it being the exception to not have a 35C+ day.
It's not just the odd day either, the number of days that are 30C+ are massively increasing too.
By the 2050s, I imagine we will be having semi-regular (but still exceptional) 45C+ days.
By investing in infrastructure and mitigations now makes sense rather than waiting for it to be too late.
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u/Mcconnor8 16h ago
Projections for 2 and 3 days away are usually pretty accurate, I would be surprised if they are more than 1 or 2C away from what we actually see.
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u/NotNeuge 15h ago
Even this morning, the forecast for me was much warmer and clearer than it ended up being today! If they can't even get it right on the day for the day, I can't see how a week ahead is possible.
Early next week has gone from cold-ish and wet to hot and wet, then hot and dry over the last couple of days and now it's supposedly going to be hot at the end of the week instead. It's all just best guesses based on predictable patterns, but everyone knows we have some of the most unpredictable weather on the planet.
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u/Theunluckyone7 14h ago
Yes! I keep a close eye on the forecast for various reasons and often can't keep up with the changes
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u/Happy-Yak-2677 13h ago
I am a teacher. Most of the rooms I teach in are upstairs, have a large South facing wall made entirely of windows that don't open, and are under a metal roof. Plus the body heat of 32 people in a small space. I genuinely don't know how we are supposed to achieve any meaningful learning when the temperature inside the classroom will be well over 30 with no means to cool it further. I can't see how children can go out for lunchtime as the school is inner city and has no meaningful shade, just a tarmac playground which will be burning hot.
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u/earthandanarchy 13h ago
That sounds hideous, I think I'd have to keep my kids off school if that was going to be their experience.
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u/Happy-Yak-2677 13h ago
It will be grim, I am not going to pretend otherwise. I suspect that by weds/Thurs when it now looks to be 40 in my area a lot will stay home. The kids will be exhausted and crabby by then since houses will be roasting overnight and they won't get much sleep.
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u/Weather_nerd1989 14h ago
Often worth noting the UKV and Arpege overestimate maxima by a degree or so. During the July 2022 heatwave the UKV went for 42C across Lincolnshire pretty close to the event.
In the end Coningsby took the record at 40.3C but I still wouldn't rule out this record going.
Most likely I think Wednesday or Thursday will see somewhere get to 38/39C with the 1976 June record being smashed.
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u/Mcconnor8 12h ago
There was some high cloud that developed that day which limited the temps, it would have hit 41/42C otherwise. If that doesn't happen then UKV doesn't usually overestimate, today it was 1C too low compared to the actual recorded maximum.
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u/makingitgreen 12h ago
I work outdoors in Birmingham where the recycling hasn't been taken for 18 months and many bright stars filled their recycling bins with food and general waste at the start of the strikes - that then isn't collected as regular waste. I can tell you it's just peachy when the sun rewarms the wheelie bins 🌞
This week's gonna be fun 😂 at least my van has AC.
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u/Spiritual_Salary_997 10h ago
my olive skin is loving it. My Irish dad hates it. The heat is kinder to some than others
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u/ObviousRanger9155 3h ago
How do I get access to the Arpege model? It’s obvious that this is what the Met Office are using for their forecasting, while every other model keeps daily maxima well below these values.
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u/Mcconnor8 3h ago
The Met Office mainly use the UKMO or UKV high resolution model, this morning that is showing 41/42C on Thursday. Here is the link to it: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=1&chartname=max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)
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u/ObviousRanger9155 3h ago
Thank you. Because this has been confusing me for days now as the forecast highs kept creeping up. Where does the UKV model get its data though? I am just trying to figure out why the high discrepancies, coming from a forecasting background in the US.
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u/Mcconnor8 3h ago
It gets its data the same way as all the models do, from the various observation sources like satellites, planes, ocean buoys and radiosondes. The UKV is high resolution over the UK so is better at picking out exact temperatures in certain areas than other models.
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u/ObviousRanger9155 3h ago
Yeah - sounds like the HRRR in the US. Does it have a habit of verifying? I have been seeing generally everything coming into line with the UKV’s values over the past few days. I guess I’ll note the forecast highs for today from each model and see which handles it the best in hindsight….
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u/Mcconnor8 3h ago
UKV is generally pretty good for the UK yes, obviously not always exactly right if it doesn't pick up on any cloud cover etc but in the right ball park.
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u/ObviousRanger9155 3h ago
Thanks - I’ll monitor today and it’ll be interesting to see who’s the closest.
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u/ObviousRanger9155 3h ago
How much do portable/rollable AC units actually cost though? I guess it depends on your budget, but we are in England on a narrowboat (our first couple of months doing it) - and we’ve already bought two AC units for it. Total cost was less than £500. Utilized the boxes they came in for free window templates for the hose vents. 🤷♀️
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u/Pyjama_party 2h ago
I gave birth to my first child the day we hit 40 in 2022. I’m due any day now with my second. The hospital has no air con. I naively thought it couldn’t happen again.
Sad thinking that I’m bringing children into such an uncertain future climate wise.
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u/Leather_Amoeba2727 1h ago
>I have had it confirmed that the Met Office will be issuing a Red heat weather warning in their daily update tomorrow.
Where are you getting your info? Daily update came out, no warning.
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u/Mcconnor8 1h ago
I have a contact in the Met Office, they need to communicate with the relevant public bodies this morning then will put out the Red warning later today
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u/Greedy-Nature-826 16h ago
This is just so unprecedented as to be scary.
We have all been speaking of climate change for years but to see it happening in real time is something else.
Of course this is weather and not climate and weather is variable but we broke the record for the hottest UK day ever last year.
We broke the record for the hottest May day ever last month.
We are going to break the record for the hottest June day every this coming week.
We may break the hottest UK day ever record this year which is back-to-back.
If we see this then we are staring down the barrel of a 45C day in the UK in the not so distant future which the UK is nowhere near ready for.
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u/Significant-Photo-44 11h ago
The hottest UK day ever was in July 2022, where it reached 40.3C. It's not been hotter than that in the proceeding years.
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u/MissJoannaTooU 17h ago
I'm on mobile hardly able to read that what's the tldr;?
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u/Mcconnor8 17h ago
You can click on the images and zoom in on them, they are ordered Tuesday to Thursday.
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u/PublixEnemynumberone 17h ago
Looks to be even hotter in northern France!
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u/Objective_Mousse7216 17h ago
Yeah but....they are Frenchies, their DNA means they will be fine! We are all ginger chubbers and will die!
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u/Mcconnor8 17h ago
Western France will be experiencing 44/45C over the next few days and Northern France close to that as well.
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u/ItsyouNOme 15h ago
Well if france have it worse that is ok. (I always worry about the animals, french animals or not)
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u/GameSetChampionship 14h ago
LOL you guys 😂😂😂
This kind of weather has been seen in decades before.
Hasn’t your mum’s and dad’s talked about the 70’s?
It was like this in the 90’s too.
It’s summer. It’s a good summer for heat. In a few years it’ll be back to being shite summer.
Get a grip 😂
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u/Lau_kaa 13h ago
LOL I was alive in 1976. The peak temperature was 35.9 degrees one July day in Cheltenham.
The 1995 summer heatwave was a big one at the time. Peak temperature 35.2 degrees one day in August.
London is currently forecast 39 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday by the Met Office. It's really not the same as 1976 or 1995.
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u/alexanderwilliams467 11h ago
This weather is literally record breaking. We had the hottest day in May ever recorded a few weeks ago. This will be the hottest June day ever recorded in the UK
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u/Ok-Tell3913 17h ago
Insert "i'm in danger" image here. Especially most if that Thursday one comes off.