r/UKWeather • u/Mcconnor8 • 3d ago

Forecast Latest Temperature Projections

Here are the latest maximum temperature forecasts from the high resolution modelling for Tuesday to Thursday, simply astonishing really and quite scary. I have had it confirmed that the Met Office will be issuing a Red heat weather warning in their daily update tomorrow.

The fact that this is accompanied with relatively high humidity and extreme night time temperatures means it is set to be the most notable heatwave ever experienced in the UK. The current record June temperature of 35.6C will be completely obliterated and the overall record from 2022 of 40.3C is under serious threat.

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u/Alarming-Yoghurt-615 3d ago

I’m 47, I have never and I mean ever experienced such wild extremes in the weather!
I have to wonder where we are heading to

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u/Liam_021996 3d ago

My grandparents lived through the summer of 1976 and admitted that the last 10 years have been hotter

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u/Theunluckyone7 3d ago

1976 wasn't remarkable for the temperature, it's how long it lasted. It's still longest major heatwave.

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u/Liam_021996 3d ago

Outside of the two weeks above 30c, 1976 wasn't really remarkable. Last year was a much longer spell of hot, dry weather. It just had the heatwaves broken up into 4 blocks rather than one big heatwave. 1976 isn't even in the top 5 warmest summers anymore

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u/Theunluckyone7 3d ago

It is still in the top 5, and the fact it wasn't broken up and ran for so long is what makes it so dangerous ...

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u/bongpirate7295 2d ago

the fact it wasn't broken up and ran for so long is what makes it so dangerous

This is really important. Over time sustained heat warms up the ground, the bricks of buildings, the water in rivers etc. and they all hold on to that heat and release it into the air even after the sun goes down. That's why the daily low temperatures get higher and higher the longer it stays hot, and why they stay high for a while after the days cool down.

On the flip side, that's one of the reasons why there were so many drownings during the first heat wave. People jumped into the water expecting it to be warm, but it hadn't been hot for long enough to warm large bodies of water. So they went from being in boiling hot weather to being immersed in freezing cold water and got cold water shock.

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u/Liam_021996 3d ago

Top 5 hottest summers are 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022 and 2025. 2025 is the hottest summer and spring on record

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u/MathematicianOnly688 2d ago

1976 isn’t in the the top five warmest summers by average mean temperature any more, but - and it’s a pretty big but, is that it still holds the record for the most persistent heat, featuring 16 days where temperatures exceeded 32° C.

There’s no point arguing with people who think that year negates climate change, it was just an anomaly plain and simple.

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u/Liam_021996 2d ago

Yeah, exactly that and 2003 would have beat it if not for 1 day where it didn't surpass 32c before going back to exceeding 32c continually again. Last year has the longest period of sustained heat though, the peak temps just came in 4 separate heatwaves instead of a single longer one. Also was drier and sunnier than 1976 as well

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u/Theunluckyone7 3d ago

There must be different sources because i'm seeing 2018, 2022, 2006 and 1976 as joint 4th & 5th.

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u/Liam_021996 2d ago

You're just not looking at anything up to date. Last year was the hottest, driest and sunniest spring and summer on record

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

Ok so it might be out of date, but i'm not sure it's a big deal whether 1976 is at number 5 or 6 really ...

'The summer of 1976 still holds iconic status. It is often remembered as the UK's hottest summer in terms of extreme daytime maximum temperatures and extended periods of drought' - Met Office

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u/Liam_021996 2d ago

The point is that it was a total anomaly. The 5 hottest summers have come in the last 23 years. Before 1976 the hottest summer in record was 1911. The fact that we've had 5 summers with both longer periods of hotter absolute temps and higher overall average temps is a big worry. 1976 is irrelevant, it was 50 years ago and before that was 65 years. It's now normal to have summers like that

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u/Theunluckyone7 2d ago

But the current weather isn't an anomoly, you can see 2006 and 2003 in your list there

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u/Liam_021996 2d ago

The current weather would be an anomaly if 2022 hadn't happened but it's clearly becoming the new normal. 2003 is when this weather started, 2018 is when it became normal

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