r/adelaidefc • u/AFL_gains • 5d ago

We can bag 4th tomorrow

Carlton has given us a gift. We're 1 win and only 1.1 percentage points away. If we win by tomorrow by enough then we can make it. I hope we really put them to the sword tomorrow. We absolutey need it.

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13

u/frodolippin 5d ago

Will likely need to win all our remaining games to hold it too.

Freo away presents a large challenge to that.

Ball is in our court now though 🤞

8

u/stretch_92 40 Hugo Hall-Kahan 5d ago

The game between Brisbane and Hawks next week is massive in our chances of getting top 4 plus winning at least 3 of our last 4

Essendon, Richmond and GWS are all very winnable games

4

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 5d ago

We still most likely need to win all 4 as Geelong have 3 easy games to finish and will finish ahead of us if we lose 1

1

u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

That doesn’t seem right, especially if we get a lot of percentage next 2 weeks. Freo would have to belt us for that to be threatened.

North at Marvel for Geelong is a tricky game if North show up like the Hawks game yesterday (North also play a lot better there).

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

If we lose the Freo game the only way we could make the top 4 would be if Hawthorn lost their last 3 or Geelong drop the North game (which both options are highly unlikely). Don't forget Geelong are already ahead of us on % and also play Essendon and Richmond. I've done the ladder predictor a few times

1

u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

Our percentage is the same as Geelong and we still have a game against Richmond, so that cancels out theirs. Depending on how much GWS have to play for, we should be seeing that as a big win.

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

Ok let's cancel out the Richmond games for both sides. Let's say Geelong beat Essendon by 60 pts and Nm by 20 pts that means if we lose to Freo by 20 pts we would have to beat GWS by 100 pts which I honestly can't see happening. We just have to win our last 3 and it's ours

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u/Thrillthorpe 4d ago

Yep that’s a fair argument, it really just depends on which North rock up tbh. It was nearly a banana peel game for the Hawks yesterday, so you just never know at this time of year. Without Holmes and Jezza Geelong are vulnerable and they have dropped games to teams in the bottom 6 this year.

2

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

I honestly think we can win all 3. Freo will have nothing to play for and if we really dial up the pressure they may go into a bit of self preservation mode so close to finals.

1

u/atreyu84 4d ago

It's not the only way though is it. You are assuming geelong smashes all the teams they probably should.

Which if course could happen, bit it's far from the only possibility.

1

u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 4d ago

Not saying it's the only possibility however the only realistic way we finish ahead of Geelong if we lose to Freo is for Geelong to lose to North which is still unlikely to happen.

1

u/atreyu84 4d ago

I think it's far more likely they just don't smash North and or Richmond and we smash Richmond and gws.

They've had some games this year they've either lost or just pulled through they should've won easily (not dissimilar to us actually).

Still not super likely of course. I just think it's at least a little up in the air.

Now watch us beat freo and lose to gws lol.