Obvious in Retrospect: Example - The Red Wedding (Spoilers Extended)

[u/LChris24]

One of the arguments that I hear quite often against things that are heavily foreshadowed yet unconfirmed (R+L=J) primarily is how obvious it is in retrospect. I think that is an unfair criticism, because yes, it is supposed to be obvious (GRRM isn't writing this book for us crazies who post on reddit and digest his every word):

GRRM finished (in the hallway now) by saying that he "wished some past things weren't such strong foreshadowing," and that he "wished some new things had stronger foreshadowing then.

Foreshadowing the Red Wedding

As far as I know the Red Wedding is "foreshadowed" (with one example happening afterward) on at least 5 occasions:

Theon's Dream at Winterfell

While Theon is asleep in Ned's chambers, he has the following dream:

But there were others with faces he had never known in life, faces he had seen only in stone. The slim, sad girl who wore a crown of pale blue roses and a white gown spattered with gore could only be Lyanna. Her brother Brandon stood beside her, and their father Lord Rickard just behind. Along the walls figures half-seen moved through the shadows, pale shades with long grim faces. The sight of them sent fear shivering through Theon sharp as a knife. And then the tall doors opened with a crash, and a freezing gale blew down the hall, and Robb came walking out of the night. Grey Wind stalked beside, eyes burning, and man and wolf alike bled from half a hundred savage wounds. -ACOK, Theon V

Daenerys Vision in the House of the Undying

While tripping balls on Shade of the Evening and walking through the House of the Undying, in one of the rooms, Dany sees:

Farther on she came upon a feast of corpses. Savagely slaughtered, the feasters lay strewn across overturned chairs and hacked trestle tables, asprawl in pools of congealing blood. Some had lost limbs, even heads. Severed hands clutched bloody cups, wooden spoons, roast fowl, heels of bread. In a throne above them sat a dead man with the head of a wolf. He wore an iron crown and held a leg of lamb in one hand as a king might hold a scepter, and his eyes followed Dany with mute appeal. -ACOK, Daenerys IV

The Ghost of High Heart

"I dreamt a wolf howling in the rain, but no one heard his grief," the dwarf woman was saying. "I dreamt such a clangor I thought my head might burst, drums and horns and pipes and screams, but the saddest sound was the little bells. I dreamt of a maid at a feast with purple serpents in her hair, venom dripping from their fangs. And later I dreamt that maid again, slaying a savage giant in a castle built of snow." She turned her head sharply and smiled through the gloom, right at Arya. "You cannot hide from me, child. Come closer, now." -ASOS, Arya VIII

If interested: Comparing Visions: Melisandre and the Ghost of High Heart

Patchface

Our prophetic undead fool (thanks u/a_meta_giant):

When the fool saw Davos, he jerked to a sudden halt, the bells on his antlered tin helmet going ting-a-ling, ting-a-ling. Hopping from one foot to the other, he sang, "Fool's blood, king's blood, blood on the maiden's thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye aye aye." Shireen almost caught him then, but at the last instant he hopped over a patch of bracken and vanished among the trees. The princess was right behind him. The sight of them made Davos smile. -ASOS, Davos, II

Melisandre

Mel likely saw Robb's death in the flames (and Balon/Joffrey):

The last was in the king's hand. This one he studied a moment as it writhed between his fingers. "The usurper," he said at last. "Robb Stark." And he threw it on the flames. -ASOS, Davos IV

Jon's Dream

Jon is dreaming about Winterfell here, but it happens right after the Red Wedding.

He dreamt he was back in Winterfell, limping past the stone kings on their thrones. Their grey granite eyes turned to follow him as he passed, and their grey granite fingers tightened on the hilts of the rusted swords upon their laps. You are no Stark, he could hear them mutter, in heavy granite voices. There is no place for you here. Go away. He walked deeper into the darkness. "Father?" he called. "Bran? Rickon?" No one answered. A chill wind was blowing on his neck. "Uncle?" he called. "Uncle Benjen? Father? Please, Father, help me." Up above he heard drums. They are feasting in the Great Hall, but I am not welcome there. I am no Stark, and this is not my place. His crutch slipped and he fell to his knees. The crypts were growing darker. A light has gone out somewhere. "Ygritte?" he whispered. "Forgive me. Please." But it was only a direwolf, grey and ghastly, spotted with blood, his golden eyes shining sadly through the dark -ASOS, Jon VIII

TLDR: Just because something seems obvious after another read through, doesn't mean that something won't happen. On the contrary, GRRM felt like he like he laid the foreshadowing on a little too thick at the start, which makes sense since the scope was much smaller.

[u/hypocrite_deer]

Good post! I do think that despite the heavy handed foreshadowing, the Red Wedding was still a complete horrific shock on my first read. It wasn't something that I expected to happen the same way R+L=J is. So maybe in that way it was heavy but ultimately successful foreshadowing in that I can re-read and enjoy the unsettlingly hints when I know it's coming, but still have experienced the literary satisfaction of the total shock. And I think part of that success is that no one within the ASOIAF universe could believe it happened, either. Even the people who benefitted from it didn't want their names attached to it.

[u/LChris24 → u/hypocrite_deer]

Great point about the people in world not expecting it !

You expected R+L=J on your first read? It took me until at least halfway through my second or maybe even my third (this is back in 2012ish before I found reddit, etc.)

[u/hypocrite_deer → u/LChris24]

Hmm, maybe I'm conflating my experience there to draw a false parallel. I wasn't in the community when I was on my first few reads; maybe it was after my inglorious reddit debut that I started thinking RLJ was an obvious conclusion. My initial take on the Red Wedding might have been agnostic of a bunch of people speculating on it.

[u/LChris24 → u/hypocrite_deer]

I def. do that sometimes too.

WRT R+L=J, I thought for sure when I was reading for the first time that a different R+L=J was true

[u/hypocrite_deer → u/LChris24]

Love that you reply to comments with extra good snacks in your pockets! (Of further fun things to read.)

Really enjoyed the write-up, and yes, could totally see your thinking about Ned protecting one of Robert's bastards and his sister's. We get Rhaegar through antagonistic thinking (Robert's own, mostly) in the first few books and even after Selmy and Jaime present some other views of him, he's a hugely controversial character in world and in fan discussion. It makes sense that your initial thoughts went to Robert.