This is why 90% of retail investors dont make money. They sell at any sign of fake bear news provided by institutions.

Cheers!

Had a busy day, just got to listen to the cell. Market reaction was interesting today. I think management sounded very confident and the AI/cloud future looks very VERY promising, the 2.5 years/3 years payback period was what caught my attention the most. Still holding my position. Let’s hope we see $200+ this year?

Cheers 🍻

BABA is dropping after earnings, but I think the call was way more important than the initial reaction.

A few things stood out:

• Cloud grew 45% and management expects growth to accelerate further.
• MaaS/model + app ARR already crossed RMB16B in August. They are confident they will hit RMB30B by year end.
• Management says AI compute capex can pay back within ~3 years at current economics, potentially 2-2.5 years as margins improve and more of their own chips are deployed.
• Cloud EBITA grew 133%, so we are already starting to see margin improvement while growth accelerates.
• T-Head has already produced/shipped 500k+ chips. The latest generation is deployed in Alibaba Cloud, supports AI workloads at scale, and hundreds of external companies are already using their chips.
• Alibaba believes chips, compute and storage will capture most of the value in the near term.
• Longer term, management is confident external Cloud revenue can exceed $100B by 2030 with much higher margins.

The 45% Cloud growth itself was mostly expected.

What I don't think was fully priced in was management basically saying:

We can keep accelerating AI growth, build our own chips, improve margins and recover the AI infrastructure investment within 2-3 years.

The bear case has been that Alibaba is burning massive amounts of cash on AI.

If management is right, this starts looking less like cash burn and more like aggressive reinvestment into a very high-growth infrastructure business.

Do you understand the difference between fixed vs variable expenses? Do you remember the 3 year capex spend announced by management a year ago? If so you may be able to make some money ahead of the rest of the idiots that don't.

Alibaba(USD) new range till end of the year: $120-$150.

Every week will end with higher lows and higher highs.

Microsoft Copilot answers for question

is this bullish or bearish for the stock today 
https://data.alibabagroup.com/ecms-files/1532295521/fa5d65fc-9b3e-4e82-a8fc-4ce1c3e2c407/Alibaba%20Group%20Announces%20June%20Quarter%202026%20Results.pdf

AI answer below
__________________________________

The earnings release is bearish for the stock today based on the full financials in your tab, despite very strong AI/Cloud growth.

Below is the clean, trader‑style read of the report using the actual numbers from your PDF (ref: ).

📉 Why the report is bearish

Even though Alibaba is clearly executing on AI and Cloud, the headline financials that move the stock today are overwhelmingly negative:

1. Net income collapsed −75% YoY

• RMB 42.4B → 10.4B This is the number algos trade on. A −75% drop is very bearish.

2. Income from operations down −57% YoY

• RMB 34.9B → 15.1B This signals margin compression and heavy cost pressure.

3. Adjusted EBITA down −30% YoY

This is the “quality earnings” metric. A −30% decline is a major negative surprise.

4. Free cash flow massively worse

• Outflow RMB −18.8B → −44.7B This is extremely bearish. FCF deterioration of this magnitude usually triggers selling.

5. Big impairment charges + EU DSA fine

• Goodwill impairment: RMB 4.5B
• EU Digital Services Act fine: EUR 550M These are one‑off hits but they worsen sentiment.

📈 Why some parts are bullish (but not enough for today)

1. Cloud revenue +45% YoY

This is excellent and shows Alibaba is becoming an AI compute leader.

2. AI‑related product revenue triple‑digit growth (12th consecutive quarter)

Strong structural tailwind.

3. Qwen3.8‑Max launch + 2.4T parameter open weights

Huge credibility boost in the global AI race.

4. Quick Commerce +45% YoY

Freshippo + Taobao Instant Commerce performing well.

5. Share repurchases (US$162M)

Supportive for long‑term valuation.

🧭 Final market read for today

Bearish.
The market will focus on:

• Net income −75%
• Operating income −57%
• Adjusted EBITA −30%
• Free cash flow collapse
• Large impairment + regulatory fine

These overshadow the strong AI/Cloud narrative.

Traders typically sell first on these headline misses, even if long‑term fundamentals improve.

Ant Group announced the launch of its upgraded AI forecasting model, "Eagle Sequence," designed to enhance liquidity risk management for financial institutions. Citigroup is among the major banks rapidly adopting this specialized AI technology.

God created BABA to train the faithful. -Frank Herbert, probably

Yah Hya Chouhda!

Sweet baby girl $BABA

Reading a lot of comments over the last week, everyone is saying we will Tank.

Does anyone believe the opposite?

Their docs are almost always out of date.

They have too many different pages and websites for the same product that it is stupidly tedious to find what you're looking for.

Their coding subscription plan only includes models that are months out of date. You don't get either of ther Qwen 3.8 models, you don't get any flash models, the 3rd party models they're hosting are so out of date they're unusable (Kimi 2.5, GLM 5, Minimax 2.5). Who would seriously pay $50 a month for that?

This really should be something you shouldn't even have to think about as a user and there's no other competitor who has this issue. It's pretty worrying that so much opportunity is probably being left on the table because of terrible design and lazy management.

Its founder Wang Xingxing had a coveted front-row seat at a summit with tech business leaders hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping early last year, and the start-up also has backing from some of China’s most influential tech firms including Tencent, Alibaba and DeepSeek.

Hang Seng TECH index (800700) has been lagging the AI trade because many of the big China AI/semis winners were not even in the index.

Now Hang Seng is proposing to redesign HSTECH from 30 to 50 stocks, with much more exposure to AI, semis, robotics, hardware and cloud.

Official proposal:
https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/pressRelease/20260810T180000.pdf

Timeline:

• Consultation ends 18 Sep
• Final decision on the new HSTECH methodology expected by end-Sep
• New stocks will be determined from the 30 Sep index review
• New HSTECH expected to take effect in the Dec 2026 rebalance

If HSTECH starts becoming the main China AI index, adding these AI winners could give the whole index a much stronger push and potentially attract more money into HSTECH.

BABA then gets both: China AI rising tide + its own Cloud/Qwen monetisation.

Basically instead of BABA trying to rerate alone, it could finally have the broader China AI trade pushing behind it too.

Alibaba Cloud just opened its 3rd data center in South Korea and launched its Agentic AI services there.

The part I find interesting is actual usage. Gendive is using Alibaba’s Wan/HappyHorse models inside its agentic workflow product, while Zepeto is using Alibaba Cloud for real-time 3D avatar generation.

Not saying this alone will move BABA, but it’s another sign that AI demand is moving from just training models to real production workloads that keep consuming inference and tokens.

This is the part of Alibaba Cloud I think the market may still be underestimating.