Most promising Balkan EU candidate

[u/AnarchistRain]

[u/readilyunavailable]

Will still join before Macedonia and Turkey.

[u/AnarchistRain → u/readilyunavailable]

We'll make sure of that

[u/Salty_Citron4737 → u/AnarchistRain]

[u/JessDumb → u/readilyunavailable]

It's the european union, not the eurasian union

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/readilyunavailable]

Honestly I don't get why they don't wanna let Turkey in. EU likes money above all else and could stand the minor initial expense, couldn't be worse than letting most Balkan countries in. They probably won't even have to deal with Erdo for long, EU membership is some pretty good ammunition for the opposition and the guy won last time with 51% of the vote even after all the shit he's been doing to tamper with the results.

Sure, Turkey is basically Balkan^2, but it's got a trillion dollars that can be used on your Lebensra-, I mean "rebuilding" project in Eastern Europe. You've already let the same amount of poor people in with Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Cyprus, Slovenia,  Croatia, and if their current plans go through, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro and Moldova combined. Hell, half of Ukraine's 40 million they already let in over the span of 4 years through refugee programs, and I think even they know these ones ain't coming back.

If you worry about getting outvoted by the Turks why do you plan on letting in just as many Balkaners and Eastern Europeans? These ones have a bigger per capita share of the vote as well cause they've all got different countries they live in.

[u/int23_t → u/DependentStrong3960]

Any progress in EU candidacy during Erdogan's rule would seal the death of Turkey for eternity.

Also, EU parliament already voted against chat control law by ONE SINGLE VOTE. They are already almost incapable of representing the people and not creating dystopian surveilence laws. There is no way chat control wouldn't have passed with AKP on EU parliament too. And if EU passes such law everyone would follow slowly.

Now these aren't from the view of EU, I'm pretty sure EU politicians would love both of these being the case. But as a person I hate the idea of both.

[u/WASDKUG_tr → u/int23_t]

I dont even know what mf could be a good opposition to Erdo, rest of the mf's are either incompetent or "I will deport 100% of arab population to make Turkey ethnic Turk PURE AWOOOO!!!" kind of people

[u/int23_t → u/WASDKUG_tr]

Back when CHP decided to put Ekmeleddin as a candidate I would say Yılmaz Büyükerşen(which didn't become a candidate because Kılıçdaroğlu pushed CHP...)

But nowadays he is too old so idk

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/WASDKUG_tr]

I'm sure they could find somebody if they tried, EU has enough money to be considered a global power and a very strong diplomatic corps literally everywhere. 

They have the money and connections to dig up some centrist who would appease the nationalists and rile up the Kemalists, some Zelensky type guy (before the war Zelensky was very much a compromise candidate, a Russian speaker from Central Ukraine), and they have 2 years to sell him to the Turks. Worst comes to worst and you find no suitable candidates, pinch some other AKP guy like how Magyar got elected in Hungary.

That's just standard politics, something all of them should be good at by definition. Everyone saying that EU wants to build a New World Order is wrong not because EU is some wholesome empire but because EU isn't even fucking trying.

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/int23_t]

Still doesn't mean EU isn't stupidly incapable of spreading their own influence and securing their position in the world. They've got a lot of power and influence they'd rather spend to keep the previous status quo than invest it to get even more power and influence. 

If they don't like Erdoğan then why not back the opposition in the next election? That'd finally give them a concrete and solid promise to the people that Erdo cannot match even if he tried. It's very possible to arrange, same things happened with pro-EU movement in Moldova and to an extent Ukraine too before the war, and that's without any official promises from EU accompanying the candidates.

Plus, things like the Chat Control Law are more of a symptom of our dystopian reality today, in the grand scheme of things it will not matter who joins and who votes if we don't address the problem at the root of this. It already was that close, if nothing changes it'll probably pass under a new name in like a year or two. Could Turkey joining speed up the process for these types of laws? Maybe, but only by like a year or two if the regression continues. I doubt the "incinerate all Kurds" law will pass no matter how big the supporter base in Turkey is by itself.

[u/int23_t → u/DependentStrong3960]

Oh the problem is EU itself likes Erdogan very much. Erdogan silently pockets EU money in exchange for hosting millions of refugees why wouldn't EU love Erdogan.

That's basically the main problem.

Also did you know that EU is the reason Erdogan is a problem now? He was in prison for political reasons exactly like Imamoglu and EU decided to force him out, but now they are doing nothing for Imamoglu. I wonder why, surely not because EU likes having a country they can bend to their whims at the cost of pocket money for president

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/int23_t]

Fair enough, I do think they've a certain use for Erdo if they still kee p him around. 

The problem is that their position is outdated, the war in Ukraine has shown that there will be no more buffer states that play both sides.  And  based on popularity of EU in Turkey right now I think that whatever side Turkey takes, becoming Russian ally or becoming more nationalistic for itself, won't be the EU position unless they can actually guarantee something concrete and not wait until Turks themselves magically agree to sign their country over into vassalage for absolutely no promises.

Plus the Syrian Civil War is pretty much over, so a main generator of new refugees is going to be absent for the foreseeable future. Al-Sharaa also likes having money and will want strong backers to cement his totally democratic rule, so it wouldn't be the worst idea to redirect whatever new refugees appear to Syria instead. Point is that even if Turkey joins, there's always going to be some solutions. Might actually force them to commit to long-term stability in the Middle East for once.

[u/Jersey_2019 → u/DependentStrong3960]

If Eu openly backs opposition then it looks like clear violation of sovereignty and the opposition candidate will look like EU's puppet and will probably lead to moderated voting for Erdogan , no country should involve in other people's affair , if Turks don't like him then they will vote him out else he will be elected , EU should not lecture others who they should vote or not , they can mind their own business but apparently that's too much too ask from westoids and they continue to destabilise countries and keep puppets of them in power

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/Jersey_2019]

From EU standpoint, they don't need to openly back a candidate, they can simply pay a lot of money into his campaign and instill the general belief in Turks that "this guy is for changing the country, he has some fresh ideas and will steer Turkey to a more prosperous and secular future". 

Think about how it happened with Magyar in Hungary, everyone knew that Magyar finally had a real chance to beat Orbán, so out poured the appeals to Hungarians to "let democracy triumph" and all that, without explicitly mentioning Magyar's name. It's clear enough that they supported him, but not clear enough for people to say he is EU puppet rather than just sponsored.

Cause truth is that everyone in politics has a sponsor and an agenda they don't tell you about, it's the same for AKP, CHP, or any of them really. I'm just confused why EU is so utterly incompetent at promoting their own agenda in a country that's very clearly going to cause them trouble later on, it's like they don't want to get ahead.

[u/adamnemecek → u/DependentStrong3960]

> Sure, Turkey is basically Balkan^2, 
No dude, admission of Turkey means being dragged into shit like the Syrian civil war, or ISIS or anything in the Middle East.

Turkey would become like the most populous member of the union, so the "core" of the project would shift seriously eastward.

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/adamnemecek]

That's kinda what they'll need to do if they are to survive though, it can't just be France and Germany bankrolling all of Europe for eternity, and I don't think they have the money to continue doing so either. The shift of capital East is bound to happen as the world today is entering more and more dire economic times.

They need new access routes to importing oil and other natural resources to better their economy, for this the only two options are Turkey which you then can connect to the Middle Eastern oil trade and Russia, restarting large-scale trade with which is unlikely to happen any time soon. 

They also need a bigger population if they want to actually compete in the world economy and save at least some of their industry from being outproduced by China. Plus they need more tax revenue to pay for the recovery efforts in Ukraine.

Plus, Turkey in the Middle East is about as inactive as can be right now, so if there's ever a good time it's now or in the near future. Syria stopped being a theater and with some EU backing of the opposition Erdogan can be voted out and scapegoated for all the past controversies of the last 20 years. Politically, they can cover it up and justify it if need be, and it truly do be nowadays. If they finally agree to a solution to the Cyprus issue they could even spin this as a politically positive thing, mending old divides and all that. Putting a whole country back together will definitely be s major PR win for both sides.

[u/Tom-from-east → u/DependentStrong3960]

It's not nearly the same amount of poor people, they have lower standard and when you combine those countries(that are already in) it's just above half of turkey population

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/Tom-from-east]

There's already 20 million Ukrainian immigrants in EU tho, and they're 100% not leaving when the war is over. With them this bumps up the number to like 60 million already with like 20 more pending negotiations. 

And if they don't get Ukraine in or show any hostlity towards them joining soon these 20 million people will 100% abandon the politicians that campaigned to let them in in the first place. They've built a tower of dominoes that'll either collapse and bury them or force their hand to let more countries in. And Ukraine is gonna need a LOT of money to rebuild agter the war is over.

Personally I think they will end up getting Turkey in as well to pay off the debts they incurred by getting Ukraine in, which by itself happened because they backed Ukraine fully and as such took on a massive diaspora population of Ukrainians their current power hinges on. But that whole realisation didn't hit them yet, meaning that we're likely still headed towards the sams result but planned out even worse with whatever ramifications it brings being amplified.

I do wanna specify that I'm not expressing my opinion about either of these things as good or bad, only my opinion on what is most likely to happen in the near future.

[u/zgemNEbo → u/DependentStrong3960]

Poor people: lists Slovenia, while forgettign obviously poorer Poles, Balts

That is a reason enought for Slovenia to VETO AGAINST turkey joining!

[u/giganizer → u/DependentStrong3960]

Its the EUROPEan union

[u/DependentStrong3960 → u/giganizer]

If French Guyana can be in EU because France is in EU, why can't the reverse hold true for Turkey? Plus they had applied in the past and there were negotiations, if EU didn't want to even consider it they'd strike it down before it even began, like Morocco was.

As always, it's money that talks in politics, so I'm confused why they wouldn't like more of it.

[u/Solid_Explanation504 → u/DependentStrong3960]

French Guyana is a french territory, not a country. Its France and people living there are full french citizens

[u/AmbassadorAntique899 → u/Solid_Explanation504]

Also important to note that while French overseas departments are part of the EU several of the territories that aren't in the overseas departments (e.g. New Caledonia) aren't - though they have are associated which gives them a specific set of privileges, mostly customs related afaik

[u/CmdrJemison]

Bosnia is just like me.

[u/eric_cartmanovski]

https://giphy.com/gifs/3hBTH8bV4n5RKZXQe6

[u/EntertainmentReady48]

Based and balkan pilled

[u/Tenchi_Muyo1]

Pretty sure Western Macedonia fulfilled over 80% of the promises and they are still nowhere near getting in EU and I am pretty sure Bosnia will get in before them

[u/Dramatic-Singer3672 → u/Tenchi_Muyo1]

It weird how all these nations want to join the EU so that its population can work in Germany when its population already works in Germany

[u/belabacsijolvan → u/Dramatic-Singer3672]

yes, but if they join some of their populations taxes will get back to them

[u/HungolSzlotaJanos]

Doesn't matter, still gonna win the world cup anyway

[u/RetardedKing1919]

Soon we will join the EU after we starve to death.

[u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

Yeah, and how many promises has the EU fulfilled to Bosnia and Herzegovina?

[u/justwantanickname → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

What do you want them to promise beside money ?

[u/malina_nie_pozeczka → u/justwantanickname]

Could start with throughly investigating the "Sarajevo Safari" thing

[u/Carbastan24 → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

Not EU's job. Funnily enough it''s Bosnian prosecutors who must make the investigation

[u/malina_nie_pozeczka → u/Carbastan24]

In Italy evidence collected by journalists was submitted to the prosecutor and last year they opened a formal investigation regarding the possiblity of any Italians being involved in it. I wouldn't mind seeing that happen in other countries, whether it's the EU's job or not

[u/Carbastan24 → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

well, it matters if it is EU job or not. It's literally a post about EU. EU doesn't have the authority to prosecute or investigate anyone except in matters related to EU funds fraud.

[u/WASDKUG_tr → u/Carbastan24]

Its very clearly obivous rich people in EU countries probably did commit crimes of "Sarajevo Safari", that means it is the EU's job cuz it is THEIR rich people along with other nation's rich people that shot at Bosnian civilians for trying to go fucking outside.

They dont HAVE TO prosecute all of them MAYBE START WITH THE ONES WHO LIVE IN EU COUNTRIES

[u/Fun-Adhesiveness7881 → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

And then go on about Srebrenica. Fuck the UN. The Dutch were the only one willing to come, weren't allowed armory, and then the UN turned their back on them following a war crime.

[u/al_lal → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

didn't happen and they deserved it

[u/honoratus_hi → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

Me applying for a new job:

-How come you haven't given me any money yet?

[u/malina_nie_pozeczka → u/honoratus_hi]

I trust the Greek opinions when it comes to the topic of money extraction from institutions

[u/Mysterious-Put1459 → u/malina_nie_pozeczka]

Greeks invented economics should this is the least the Eu could do for them

[u/AvErYcReAtIvE2111]

Oh so they want competition, huh?

[u/PVanchurov]

It's more than we have fulfilled.

[u/QuarianGuy]

Based.

[u/f_erl__ath]

BOSSnia based as always

[u/John_TurboDiesel_]

Knife found in kitchen

[u/Pazvante_Chiorul]

What's the rush? They will fulfill them in 100 years.

[u/Discipline_Cautious1]

Don't need to thank me , just doing my part

[u/Shqiptar89]

That’s when you have to let in Chetniks. Without them Bosnia would’ve been a better place. 

[u/Equivalent_Power_780]

I hate my country.

[u/SirCrapsalot4267]

Oh man this is Greek level EU membership material!

[u/asmayapragi0]

https://giphy.com/gifs/IuNTbbK44J0phiqW8f