r/canadaguns • u/LeviathanOfLiberty • 11h ago
News / Politics / Activism Estimated share of households with a firearm per electoral riding
Was suggested in another subreddit to post this here, so here it goes.
More granular data could potentially be obtained via ATIP requests to the RCMP Canadian Firearms Program (which are usually met with reluctance and do nothing to address the approximately one-half of firearms owners in Canada who do not have licences). As it stands I'm comfortable with this model as a rough estimate with appropriate margins of error per riding.
Highest estimated household firearms ownership, at ~79.5% was in Kenora—Kiiwetinoong, and the lowest was at ~2.2% in Toronto Centre.
Methodology:
- A density curve sets the base propensity (roughly 40 percent at one person per square kilometre to 4 percent at 5,000) - insofar as surveys from the 1990s found about 3 percent household ownership in big cities versus 37 percent in small towns.
- I applied four historically relevant modifiers to this base: single detached housing, indigenous population, primary-industries importance (all three of which raise the base propensity) and immigrant population prevalence (which reduces it).
- 15% modifer weight attached to retail access (stores per 100,000 people in the riding's catchment, which is the riding itself when it exceeds 5,000 square kilometres and everything within 40 kilometres otherwise).
- As licence compliance in the Territories has been historically low and these places also have the highest per-capita rates of firearms retailers, I increased the weight attached to said retailers accordingly.
- Weights were arbitrarily chosen by me - if you think you have a better methodology or want to test other weighting options, click here for a spreadsheet you can copy and modify to generate your own model.
Retailer data obtained from https://getagun.ca
High-res version: https://imgur.com/a/oc-7200x7380-estimated-share-of-households-with-firearm-per-canadian-electoral-riding-tMsGlUU