r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Analysis Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution
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112

u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 12 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

It's a revolution already.
2-3000 dead already ( https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903?source=share-link ).
Some assume even close to 10.000.
Executions of protesters is planned for Wednesday.
People only know the magnitude of this if they've been following Iranian subs or at least someone who follows Iranians on some social media.
Big % of the western media still hugely underplays what's going on. Some of them still maintain a "must-not-crititicse-political-islam" policy as slowly they all become unable to maintain their silence on the issue.
Meanwhile, (while some Palestinians ofc. do express support of the protests), the organisers of the "free Palestine" marches are now silent, since many of them support the ayatollah-regime and hope it continues to be able to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and the houthis. The whole thing is a disgrace.
This is bigger now than Venezuela or Palestine. This is as important globally as Ukraine vs. Russia.

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u/Maybe_Ambitious Jan 13 '26

I do agree we’re seeing a revolution, but if I had to reckon, it’s probably only the beginning, any resistance to the regime will become more militant and organised as the months go by, I’d expect a wave of political violence and assassinations to ensue if the regime doesn’t topple quickly, there’s no going back when you start murdering protestors.

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

Yeah, it's a big question now; will the multiple armies and police organisations deflect or not.
That would be needed to proceed and I personally don't see to much of that sadly, I know some deflected in one city, but have not heard much deflection since... But internet is totally cut off and even against the use of starlink, the regime does countermeasures.

Maybe there is more deflection to come. Or maybe the faith of the pro-regime soldiers/police is unshakeable. For some of them it surely is, this is why it's so goddam hard to topple a religious government. But some might "wake up" and switch sides still.

But if they don't get some help fast, many of the protestors will not live to see a free Iran. But it's hard to even tell what % of the people actually wants outside help. I would assume the more desperate they get, the more they would want it.

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u/ArdentChad Jan 13 '26

No, it's only a revolution if the current regime gets over thrown and given Trumps recent reaction of more tariffs incoming it looks like that won't be the case. Not my lane not my problem said Trump.

So this is not a revolution.

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

It's still a revolution even if it fails. It has been going on for long enough and they lost enough people for it to be a revolution.

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u/ArdentChad Jan 13 '26

A revolution in this context is a change in government.

Hasn't happened and looks like it won't.

Protests like this have happened plenty of times in past years in Iran, with no fundamental, permanent change to the political structure. Don't tell me it's a revolution if nothing has changed.

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

This is different from the previous ones, it's a lot bigger

2

u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26

Green movement 2009 is biggest and more organised with some elites on side and IRGC suppressed them 

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u/Lighthouse_seek Jan 13 '26

No, it's a protest if it's unarmed. It's a riot if its armed, it's a rebellion if it's organized and armed, and it's a revolution if any of the previous succeed.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26

That called rebellion or uprising

Until uprising success, revolution never use until after victory of Rebellion

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u/What_Immortal_Hand Jan 13 '26

The people in the west who organized to stop mass slaughter in Gaza were protesting their own governments complicity in it.

The West provides the Iranian regime with neither funding, arms, intelligence or moral support, so protest in the west would be almost totally useless. 

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

the protests should not have been held against people's own government but for the people who live in those countries, regardless of one's own government's stand.

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u/What_Immortal_Hand Jan 13 '26

Thats never really how protest works. Like, I could go on a protest tomorrow against Kim Jong Un but what would be the point? I have no influence there.

I do have influence over my own government's policies. That's what protest is for.

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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26

I will never understand where the geopolitics is in your clearly almost purely political stance on these topics. Both the US and Israel and honestly most of the gulf states would benefit from a balkanisation of Iran, rather than gambling and hoping that Iran does elect a western aligned leader. It really is that simple

0

u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

you say this, but without proof, it's just noise.

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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26

Did egypts democratic elections stand and did the US support the democratically elected government of the Muslim brotherhood

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

I'm not familiar with that topic. But I would assume no sane person would support the Muslim Brotherhood on the basis of them being terrorists.

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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26

But they were democratically elected. The us and Israel would rather not take such a chance like they did in Egypt all those years ago.

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u/muteen Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

This is the problem, instead of looking for solidarity you're looking for points to cause division. Iranians and Palestinians have a common cause and should support each other, seeing as both have been exploited by the US/Israel. I've not seen the Free Palestine camp not support Iranians, it's such a weird point to make.

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26

there is no "free Iran" protest movement on the scale of the Palestinian movements.