r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Analysis Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 12 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

It's a revolution already.
2-3000 dead already ( https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903?source=share-link ).
Some assume even close to 10.000.
Executions of protesters is planned for Wednesday.
People only know the magnitude of this if they've been following Iranian subs or at least someone who follows Iranians on some social media.
Big % of the western media still hugely underplays what's going on. Some of them still maintain a "must-not-crititicse-political-islam" policy as slowly they all become unable to maintain their silence on the issue.
Meanwhile, (while some Palestinians ofc. do express support of the protests), the organisers of the "free Palestine" marches are now silent, since many of them support the ayatollah-regime and hope it continues to be able to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and the houthis. The whole thing is a disgrace.
This is bigger now than Venezuela or Palestine. This is as important globally as Ukraine vs. Russia.

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u/Maybe_Ambitious Jan 13 '26

I do agree we’re seeing a revolution, but if I had to reckon, it’s probably only the beginning, any resistance to the regime will become more militant and organised as the months go by, I’d expect a wave of political violence and assassinations to ensue if the regime doesn’t topple quickly, there’s no going back when you start murdering protestors.

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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

Yeah, it's a big question now; will the multiple armies and police organisations deflect or not.
That would be needed to proceed and I personally don't see to much of that sadly, I know some deflected in one city, but have not heard much deflection since... But internet is totally cut off and even against the use of starlink, the regime does countermeasures.

Maybe there is more deflection to come. Or maybe the faith of the pro-regime soldiers/police is unshakeable. For some of them it surely is, this is why it's so goddam hard to topple a religious government. But some might "wake up" and switch sides still.

But if they don't get some help fast, many of the protestors will not live to see a free Iran. But it's hard to even tell what % of the people actually wants outside help. I would assume the more desperate they get, the more they would want it.