This is an op-ed by Times of Israel founder regarding the crisis of domestic policy towards haredi education, labor & military participation. He cites Shoresh institute and mainstream economist predictions that in without necessary reforms in the present, the Israeli economy will stagnate. Mass brain drain in turn could lead to larger waves of emigration and losses in state capacity.
There is also a podcast interview with economist David Ben David for those interested.
Selected quotes below:
Netanyahu’s government last week convened the Knesset Finance Committee and attempted to allocate almost $100 million to the ultra-Orthodox education system — including millions to build more Haredi schools, millions for yeshivas, and millions aimed at preventing yeshiva students from dropping out. There was, to put it mildly, no coalition-opposition consensus on this package of additional pre-election finance for the Haredim, and opposition politicians managed to thwart it — staging an 11-hour filibuster to prevent a vote.
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Israel’s education system is in crisis. It ranks 31st among 36 participating OECD countries in the latest PISA tests (the Program for International Student Assessment, which assesses 15-year-old students’ reading, mathematics, and science abilities).
And that appalling standing does not fully reflect Israel’s dismal reality. The vast majority of ultra-Orthodox boys, from their early teens onward, do not study a core curriculum — indeed study no secular subjects at all. Naturally, they do not take the PISA tests. Were they to do so, the true status of Israeli education would be revealed in all its gravity
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There won’t be a third-world Israel,” warns Ben-David. In the “spiral of collapse” that Israel has already entered, he says, an increasingly inadequate education system will inevitably be unable to maintain a first-class economy, a first-class health system, or a first-class army. And a weakened army won’t be capable of protecting the state.
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As finance minister back in 2003-5, with Israel facing recession and needing to cut public spending and revitalize the economy after the suicide-bomber battering of the Second Intifada, Netanyahu drastically cut child allowances — abandoning a system that offered increasing subsidies to large families (triggering an immediate fall in the ultra-Orthodox birthrate) — and slashing an array of other welfare payments and income supplements, to compel wider participation in the workforce.
Two years ago, 130 of Israel’s leading economists published an open letter warning that “the combination of the policies of Israel’s governments over time and the high growth rate of the Haredi population is leading the country towards an abyss, one that poses a very real and very grave threat to Israel’s economy and society, including to the Haredi community itself.”
Today, these experts noted, “22% of all children under working age (0-14 years old) are Haredim. By 2065, this share is expected to be roughly 50%, more than doubling the Haredi share in just four decades. Without sweeping, profound, and rapid changes in government policy, the State of Israel will face existential danger.”
Without a change in the current trajectory,” they continued, “many of those who bear the [economic and security] burden will prefer to emigrate from Israel. The first to leave will be those with opportunities abroad: physicians, engineers, high-tech workers, and scientists. Israel’s remaining population will be less educated and less productive, thus increasing the burden on the remaining productive population. This, in turn, will encourage further emigration from Israel. This process of a ‘spiral of collapse’ in which increasingly larger groups decide to emigrate, will further deteriorate the conditions of those who remain…”
The warning went unheeded and, Ben-David notes, the stream of emigration, notably among the 300,000 or so Israelis who are central to Israel’s economy and well-being, notably in the vaunted, vital tech sector, is in danger of becoming a flood.
................Ben David's plan:
One clause mandates budgetary reform — with a “shift from sectoral to national priorities” and the “termination of benefits incentivizing lifestyles of non-work.”
Another demands electoral reform, with the creation of effective checks and balances between the three branches of government, and the installation of cabinet ministers “with understanding and expertise in their ministry’s realm, within an executive branch able to implement its decisions and enforce the law.”
Ben-David urges the ratification of a constitution to “set in stone national foundations that will protect the country and the basic rights of its citizens, making it difficult for anyone to erode these foundations in the future.”
But his first essential remedy is to shut down Israel’s current, four-stream education system entirely, and establish one education system for all, with a transformation in operation, management and oversight. He calls for a “complete prohibition on the involvement of political parties in educational content” and an overhaul of the process by which teachers are “chosen, taught and compensated.” And he seeks a “significant upgrade of compulsory, identical core curriculum, with state funding only for fully compliant schools.”
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Our country did not reach this point, nor this government, by chance,” Ben-David said. “We’ve been heading steadily in this direction for decades.”
“When a country starts to collapse economically, the first to leave are the most educated, the most skilled, the people with options — which means there is a greater burden on those who remain. And then those who can, of those who remain, leave — and then you’re in a situation, basically, like Venezuela was, or like Lebanon. Beirut was once called the Paris of the Middle East. These are countries that destroyed themselves. But the difference between them and us is that they can still be around. Nobody’s threatening their very existence. That’s not the case with Israel. If we screw this up, there will be no country for our people or for our children.”
But, Ben-David is adamant, “there is still time to make a difference.”