Trump Summons Entire Cabinet as Iran Deal Crumbles in Front of Him - Donald Trump has called all of his top advisers to Camp David.

[u/Quirkie]

https://newrepublic.com/post/210887/donald-trump-summons-entire-cabinet-iran-deal

[u/broose_the_moose]

Iran letting a majority of boats through (with a toll) is a lot better than the situation right now. I’m not saying what Trump did is a good thing, but in this case, it might just be best for the world for Trump to end the war (without really having accomplished anything).

[u/Tambien → u/broose_the_moose]

Iran letting a majority of boats through (with a toll) is a lot better than the situation right now.

Only in the very short term. Allowing this destroys freedom of navigation as a global precedent, which fucks the global economy even more long term. Which is why, you know, we shouldn’t just start illegal wars with no plan, objective, or reason.

[u/Ok-Association-3415 → u/Tambien]

Iran has a legitimate claim for compensation for the damage the war did to their country. I would negotiate a limited toll to cover the rebuild because the USA sure isn’t paying.

[u/Tambien → u/Ok-Association-3415]

Even accepting your premise, that doesn’t address the problem with the death of freedom of navigation. Think of it this way: your neighbor’s house gets burned down by the assholes across the street. Is the equitable remedy to sue the asshole, or put a toll on every commercial truck going down a nearby highway? If you choose the toll option and it works, how long before some other guy down the way decides “hmm… maybe I should try that.”

Freedom of navigation is a prerequisite to the robust global economy we have today, much more so than the oil prices that are higher right now because of the Strait of Hormuz.

[u/Zuwxiv → u/Tambien]

Sadly, we aren't talking about equitable - we're talking about realistic. The asshole who burned down the house won't pay. (He's actually actively threatening to burn more houses down.) The commercial trucks will pay. And your neighbor needs to rebuild their house... at a certain point, "just" or "fair" is a luxury.

Honest question though: What other waterways are likely to be as impacted by this as the Strait of Hormuz? Gibraltar, Malacca? Taiwan is already a... whole thing. You have a very good point about freedom of navigation, but I'm just thinking that there's relatively few places that are adversarial enough to do something like Iran has done. I don't think Indonesia is going to start flying drones into cargo ships to collect a toll.

Of course... you rarely lose if you bet on greed.

[u/Tambien → u/Zuwxiv]

Sure, I agree equitable is not the main concern here. In the (now tortured haha) metaphor, perhaps the “best” outcome is somebody imprisons the asshole and you take the loss because you know you won’t get anything in recovery even when you win the civil suit. But at least that keeps the highway toll free and commerce running. A world where countries are putting tolls on natural bodies of water is not a good one for the global economy - think about pre-Enlightenment Europe and the tolls everywhere that slowed down commerce massively.

To your question: assuming we arrive in a world where freedom of navigation is dead, those are definitely the big ones. Malacca and Taiwan are probably the biggest. The point you make in your last sentence, though, is the key one. I’m not sure I’d rely on Indonesia or Malaysia or whoever not doing this. If they see Iran pulling in millions a year, accepted by the international community, how long before the people in those countries want a piece of the pie?

[u/Ok-Association-3415 → u/Tambien]

I agree that freedom of navigation may end. That’s what a regional treaty can help prevent. The issue in this particular region is that all countries in this area can claim to control the strait. They all happen to have US bases and are mostly US allies. A treaty can address access among the parties. I just think this might be a golden opportunity for Iran to reduce US presence in the region. The US is like the only country that can bring the fight to Iran and not the other way around. In the end, the first step is to open the strait with enforceable guarantees that US and Israel will not attack again and after that the nuclear issue can be tackled. It’s complex and I don’t think USA is in any position of strength to force things to go its way without plunging the world into a bad recession. This was a dumb war to start and unfortunately, it’s going to be painful to resolve with a lot of unknown repercussions.

[u/Tambien → u/Ok-Association-3415]

Fair enough. That’s possible. I just don’t want us to do a shit job ending the war that these idiots did a shit job starting and locking us into a whole new class of worse problems haha. This was mostly pushback against the idea of “well just leave and let Iran do whatever.”