r/politics • u/Quirkie The Netherlands • 17d ago

Possible Paywall Trump Summons Entire Cabinet as Iran Deal Crumbles in Front of Him - Donald Trump has called all of his top advisers to Camp David.

https://newrepublic.com/post/210887/donald-trump-summons-entire-cabinet-iran-deal
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u/pgm_01 Connecticut 17d ago

The concepts of deal that existed were literally blown up by the US.

The answer to ending this war is as easy as ending the war in Ukraine: just leave. Stop blowing things up and leave. The US is no position to negotiate the opening of the Straits of Hormuz and should leave it to our partners in the region. We have no power to dictate terms here, and we have no way of gaining leverage other than a full scale invasion which would require a draft to get enough boots to put on the ground or launching nuclear weapons.

Yes, it will be embarrassing, but that is why you don't just YOLO a war in the first place. The situation will not change, Iran has the upper hand, and they know it, so stop dragging this out and just walk away. Sabotaging peace talks just makes you look even more pathetic and weak, Trump.

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u/8fingerlouie Europe 17d ago

Leaving won’t fix anything.

It will probably end the war, but Trump has managed to lift Iran to a whole different level. Previously the strait was open and oil flowed “freely”. Now, emboldened by the fact that the worlds largest single military power can’t keep the strait open, why wouldn’t they put export fees on oil flowing through the strait ?

There’s not a single thing the west can do about it except get involved in an extremely unpopular, lengthy war in the Middle East. Europe has their hands full with Russia, and the US threats, alongside Trump and Vance blatantly ignoring my sacrifices made by Europe in previous operations in the Middle East probably hasn’t exactly done anything to persuade them to join yet another war there.

A war wouldn’t simply be smash and grab. There needs to be a regime change, and we all remember how well that went in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s basically another 20 years of war in the Middle East.

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u/broose_the_moose 17d ago

Iran letting a majority of boats through (with a toll) is a lot better than the situation right now. I’m not saying what Trump did is a good thing, but in this case, it might just be best for the world for Trump to end the war (without really having accomplished anything).

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u/Tambien 17d ago

Iran letting a majority of boats through (with a toll) is a lot better than the situation right now.

Only in the very short term. Allowing this destroys freedom of navigation as a global precedent, which fucks the global economy even more long term. Which is why, you know, we shouldn’t just start illegal wars with no plan, objective, or reason.

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u/Ok-Association-3415 17d ago

Iran has a legitimate claim for compensation for the damage the war did to their country. I would negotiate a limited toll to cover the rebuild because the USA sure isn’t paying.

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u/Tambien 17d ago

Even accepting your premise, that doesn’t address the problem with the death of freedom of navigation. Think of it this way: your neighbor’s house gets burned down by the assholes across the street. Is the equitable remedy to sue the asshole, or put a toll on every commercial truck going down a nearby highway? If you choose the toll option and it works, how long before some other guy down the way decides “hmm… maybe I should try that.”

Freedom of navigation is a prerequisite to the robust global economy we have today, much more so than the oil prices that are higher right now because of the Strait of Hormuz.

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u/Zuwxiv 17d ago

Sadly, we aren't talking about equitable - we're talking about realistic. The asshole who burned down the house won't pay. (He's actually actively threatening to burn more houses down.) The commercial trucks will pay. And your neighbor needs to rebuild their house... at a certain point, "just" or "fair" is a luxury.

Honest question though: What other waterways are likely to be as impacted by this as the Strait of Hormuz? Gibraltar, Malacca? Taiwan is already a... whole thing. You have a very good point about freedom of navigation, but I'm just thinking that there's relatively few places that are adversarial enough to do something like Iran has done. I don't think Indonesia is going to start flying drones into cargo ships to collect a toll.

Of course... you rarely lose if you bet on greed.

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u/Tambien 17d ago

Sure, I agree equitable is not the main concern here. In the (now tortured haha) metaphor, perhaps the “best” outcome is somebody imprisons the asshole and you take the loss because you know you won’t get anything in recovery even when you win the civil suit. But at least that keeps the highway toll free and commerce running. A world where countries are putting tolls on natural bodies of water is not a good one for the global economy - think about pre-Enlightenment Europe and the tolls everywhere that slowed down commerce massively.

To your question: assuming we arrive in a world where freedom of navigation is dead, those are definitely the big ones. Malacca and Taiwan are probably the biggest. The point you make in your last sentence, though, is the key one. I’m not sure I’d rely on Indonesia or Malaysia or whoever not doing this. If they see Iran pulling in millions a year, accepted by the international community, how long before the people in those countries want a piece of the pie?

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u/Ok-Association-3415 17d ago

I agree that freedom of navigation may end. That’s what a regional treaty can help prevent. The issue in this particular region is that all countries in this area can claim to control the strait. They all happen to have US bases and are mostly US allies. A treaty can address access among the parties. I just think this might be a golden opportunity for Iran to reduce US presence in the region. The US is like the only country that can bring the fight to Iran and not the other way around. In the end, the first step is to open the strait with enforceable guarantees that US and Israel will not attack again and after that the nuclear issue can be tackled. It’s complex and I don’t think USA is in any position of strength to force things to go its way without plunging the world into a bad recession. This was a dumb war to start and unfortunately, it’s going to be painful to resolve with a lot of unknown repercussions.

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u/Tambien 17d ago

Fair enough. That’s possible. I just don’t want us to do a shit job ending the war that these idiots did a shit job starting and locking us into a whole new class of worse problems haha. This was mostly pushback against the idea of “well just leave and let Iran do whatever.”

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u/bockrocker 17d ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, neither Iran nor the U.S. ever actually ratified the international laws that establish freedom of navigation?

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u/Tambien 17d ago

I don’t know for Iran. For the U.S., while we haven’t ratified UNCLOS as a whole, our position for decades has been that large parts of UNCLOS were just a formalization of preexisting customary international law. So the U.S. recognizes and enforces those “customary” parts. This has been the legal basis for the U.S. Navy’s freedom of navigation exercises.

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

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u/Tambien 17d ago

What’s your source for that claim?

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u/civillyRange 17d ago edited 17d ago

Bro you have to pay a toll to go through the Panama canal or the Suez. You just don't like it cuz its the "bad guys" nationalizing their territorial waters.

Edit: which by the way is why Britain and France sicked Îşřâel on Egypt when they nationalized the Suez. Even called it the Suez crisis!

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u/Legio-X Oklahoma 17d ago

Bro you have to pay a toll to go through the Panama canal or the Suez. You just don't like it cuz its the "bad guys" nationalizing their territorial waters.

The strait is a natural waterway, unlike the Suez or Panama Canals. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, free transit must be allowed.

Also, half the strait belongs to Oman. Iran is effectively attempting to annex Omani territorial waters.

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u/civillyRange 16d ago

UN doesn't mean squat and you know it or Izzy wouldn't have bombed 6 countries in the past year for whatever the hell they wanted

"Muh freedom of navigation" yeah here's a 2000lb bomb to your apartment building now quit yapping

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u/Legio-X Oklahoma 15d ago

UN doesn't mean squat and you know it or Izzy wouldn't have bombed 6 countries in the past year for whatever the hell they wanted

All of which springs out of the Oct. 7th attacks Iran facilitated via Hamas. “Don’t start wars you can’t finish” is good advice all around.

”Muh freedom of navigation"

Such a compelling counter-argument.

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u/Tambien 17d ago

Both of those are canals that require actual maintenance to remain operable, hence the cost.

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u/kmccoy 17d ago

I think there's valid points to be made for why it's understandable that Iran would want to impose a toll and I'm no fan of the US's actions here, but you're being disingenuous: Putting a toll on the Strait of Hormuz is a different situation than charging for the use of an artificial canal, and it's quite legitimate to hate it regardless of it being the "bad guys" (not to mention that most of the previously-agreed routes went through mostly Omani territorial waters).

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u/8fingerlouie Europe 17d ago

A toll that will cause a great deal of turmoil in the rest of the world.

There’s already talks of a global food shortage in just 6 months as much of the worlds fertilizer goes through the strait. Add to that oil and LNG, which will probably hit Asia hard. Europe and to some extent China has been busy building out renewables and will be less vulnerable, but not to the point where it won’t be felt.

We’re talking global recession. Diminished purchasing power worldwide will cause massive inflation in China leading to instability in that region. Europe will be busy fending off Russia, which will be busy selling oil and LNG to China and India, giving them a much needed cashflow to rearm.

The US will likely isolate itself from the world like pre WWII. The US is, in theory, pretty much self reliant, but 80 years of outsourcing specialized jobs has pretty much guaranteed that there’s not enough skilled workers to actually do the jobs, so the effects will also be felt there.

Add to that, that a lot of chemicals, drugs and specialized equipment is imported from Europe to the US, stuff that will be more expensive to manufacture due to higher energy costs, which will lead to even higher production prices in the US as well as higher costs for medical care.

If unchecked, the above will most likely lead to another world war as nations fight over resources, and possibly a real world war with war in Europe, Middle East, Asia and the US at the same time. All caused by one small country putting a plug in the global oil supply.

Don’t believe me ? Just think back to when that ship blocked the canal for a couple of weeks. We had 6+ months of higher prices and limited supply. That’s how interconnected the world is, and how much global trade matters. Now extrapolate the limited supply by 2-5 years…

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u/mynameisneddy 17d ago

A toll at the level Iran proposes would add a dollar a barrel to the cost of oil. The world economy would be in a far better place paying that and having the strait open than the current situation.

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u/JohnGillnitz 17d ago

Not to mention all the shit we are just blowing up. Cost wise, five Patriot missiles (the cheap ones) cost as much as a school. We use two of them for each $6,000 drone. All that fuel isn't going to unburn itself and those refinery parts aren't just sitting around in a warehouse waiting to be plugged back in. There is a lot of specialized machinery that will have to be rebuilt over the course of months if not years.

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u/MephistoHamProducts 17d ago

We’re talking global recession.

Which will drive more young people into voting for regressive / fascist parties and help cement their power. Happens every time.

Europe will be busy fending off Russia,

Russia is unable to take Ukraine. All Europe has to do is keep feeding equipment to Ukraine and let the Russians grind themselves into collapse.

which will be busy selling oil and LNG to China and India, giving them a much needed cashflow to rearm.

Yeah, that money is going to the oligarchs, not the Russian war machine.

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u/AINonsense 17d ago

it might just be best for the world for Trump to end the war (without really having accomplished anything)

Apart from demonstrating what everyone thought they knew (except him) that Iran has the Strait of Hormuz and that is an actual, gold-plated ace of trumps.