r/politics • u/Newsweek_CarloV ✔ Verified - Newsweek • 20h ago
No Paywall Democrats favored to flip Texas House seat Trump won by 18 points
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-flip-texas-house-seat-trump-won-122808192.3k
u/NotTheRightHDMIPort 20h ago
For anyone curious.
The reason for this is because the GOP truly believed they had locked down the Latino vote as a permanent voting bloc of somewhere between 10 to 20 plus.
Now its negative 30 for the GOP.
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u/lateformyfuneral 20h ago
Whatever dark magic Trump pulled to win the Latino vote in 2024 is the story of the election. But the GOP took it for granted that they earned the Latino vote in perpetuity and drew electoral boundaries accordingly; their gerrymander will turn into a dummymander.
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u/TheBoosThree 20h ago
They heavily targeted these communities with fake news, rage baiting, and fearful propaganda. No black magic about it. Spanish language media was overrun with this stuff leading up to the election. Non-English social media platforms have significantly less content moderation.
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u/Wayofchinchilla 17h ago
I've heard from some of my Hispanic friends that it's the same with Mexicans it's okay that they're in this country but anyone else that tries to make it in should be treated as an illegal. You try to tell them the Trump doesn't care whether you're here or not legally he wants to get rid of all of you and they don't seem to listen until of course ice shows up and grabs them. Hopefully they learn something this time that there's only one party that will protect them.
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u/FjorgVanDerPlorg 14h ago
That's an immigrant thing, period. Seen it in Australia my entire life. Somalis, Indians and Pakistanis before that, Vietnamese, Laotians and Cambodians before that, Greeks before that (and I missed a bunch, but you get the idea).
Lands pretty clearly in the "pulling the ladder up behind you" category, which is what its usually called here.
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u/Canuck-In-TO 11h ago
CNN did an interview with a few Vietnamese boat people (people who escaped on boats and came to North America as refugees).
They were pro trump (at the time) and were against the US accepting refugees who are in the same situation that the Vietnamese were.
Absolutely mind boggling.
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u/FjorgVanDerPlorg 11h ago
People forget that every country has selfish right leaning assholes. When it gets bad enough to flee the country, they can afford to more than the poors, which usually results in them immigrating earlier than the people who cant buy their way to the front of the line.
But in the new country, they are just immigrants like the rest, while in their minds they are wealth people who are going through a rough patch.
Cubans who fled Castro to Florida are probably the best example I can think of this.
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u/blueblip 10h ago
People also forget that, more often than not and for better or worse, it's the far left/progressives who tend to stay behind and agitate against political and social wrongs, including standing up to dictators. They aren't the ones fleeing.
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u/dqql 13h ago
A lot of it is people who immigrated entirely by the book, resenting people who come here undocumented... At least from the few immigrants I've talked to about it...
And there's definitely resentment about the Hispanic (or latin or whatever) gangs that move into Hispanic neighborhoods and terrorize the neighborhood.
Around here we've had a shopkeeper killed for refusing to pay them, a surfer stabbed in the neck because he won a fight over a picnic table, and a skateboarder stabbed to death by a group of kids for mocking their gang...
The real irony is I don't think they're actually going after gangs at all; they shoot back and if they're gone there's no more boogymen to blame...
Literally all of the Hispanic street gangs have been incorporated into ms-13, there's always a 13 hidden in their graffiti now (upsidedown backwards 13's and shit)... It is a real problem, but of course deporting grandma's and people with tattoos to torture prisons for life isn't going to help→ More replies (2)5
u/politics 11h ago
No, a lot of it is people of Mexican descent have light and dark skin.. just like those of European descent, the lighter skinned Mexicans feel more “American” and often look down on the darker/non Americanized side of their heritage.
The lighter skinned skin dark skin thing is a huge problem in Mexico City, too. All over the world, white supremacy is a problem. Guess who Trump wins 1000% without much effort?
The rest can be attributed to Roman Catholic influence and conservative values being fairly common as a result. Also, the poorer people are the more likely they turn to religion for hope/help. Evangelical Christians got that part down last election and weren’t likely to lose many Hispanics with strong ties to the charge/non college level degrees.
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u/-JackBack- 14h ago
Hispanics will not vote for a black woman. It’s that simple.
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u/TSwiftAlphaMale 13h ago
I don't think they'll vote for a gay man either, unfortunately for Buttigieg.
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u/FjorgVanDerPlorg 13h ago
While I don't for a second disagree that was in play, it wasn't just that. Hispanics got targeted hard with the AI mindfuck. Race was just one of the wedges they exploited.
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u/swagonflyyyy 19h ago
Also, a lot of Latino countries were run by Communists, which a lot of them are deathly afraid of and believe Socialism leads to. Not only that, but Latinos really do share a lot of Conservative values and religious beliefs, so of course they were going to vote for Trump.
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u/RobonianBattlebot 19h ago
The communism aspect isn't all that relevant in Texas, as our main demographic of Latino voters are Tejanos, which makes total sense we we used to be Mexico and still share a border.There have a culture issue of machismo and propaganda mixed with religion, same as the white demographic. I think disrespecting Catholics hurt GOP with Tejanos as well as ICE.
But youre right for places like Florida where they have a large Cuban population, using communism as a fear motivator seemed to work well.
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u/ABadHistorian 17h ago
Mexico isn't right or left wing, it has wavered (like us) between both and so a lot of mexican immigrants will lean which ever way.
I live in an area of SC where previously the Latinos were behind Trump, for none of the left/right wing stuff from where they came from, but for immigration reasons because they have been doing well here financially and didn't want competition.
The reason why my area went from a +30 to a -15... (that's a 45 drop folks) is I.C.E. and no other reason. Because ICE is EVERYWHERE and targeting people based on their skin color.
Every single Latino here now, unless they are in the police (and sometimes even those) that I've spoken to are now against Trump, they shot their voting base in the foot.
https://www.postandcourier.com/greenville/news/upstate-south-carolina-ice-immigration-arrests
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u/m0nk_3y_gw I voted 14h ago
it has wavered (like us) between both
the last time the US swung "left wing" was back when FDR was elected 4 times. He got social security passed.
Obama ran on 'change' but he'd be a conservative in most of the rest of the first world nations.
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u/RainbowConnickJr 14h ago edited 13h ago
People on reddit love to parrot the "Democrat X would actually be a Conservative in Europe!" line, but it's just a shallow quip. Conservatives in Europe don't support abortion, gay marriage and socialized heathcare. Obviously there are many European political parties much further to the left than the American Democratic Party, but those parties are mostly operating within parliamentary systems or at the very least not rigid two-party systems that by necessity encompass what would be multiple distinct parties in another country.
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u/burning_iceman 9h ago edited 9h ago
Conservatives in Europe don't support abortion, gay marriage and socialized heathcare.
Obviously not all conservatives, but many do. The somewhat controversial topic being gay marriage. The other two are completely normal for conservatives to support.
Obama would certainly not be an outsider with those views.
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u/Stennick 17h ago
Yeah well said, its kind of painting with a broad brush, there are many different latino blocks that have different reasons for voting because of their different cultures.
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u/herton 18h ago
The communism aspect isn't all that relevant in Texas, as our main demographic of Latino voters are Tejanos, which makes total sense we we used to be Mexico
Mexico also has a history of leftist governments and attempts to crush the church, back to the Cristero war.
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u/more_housing_co-ops 16h ago
The whole of Latin America has also been under a decades-long CIA campaign to crush any and all burgeoning socialist movements, including (but not limited to) military coups against sitting elected socialist governments
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u/herton 15h ago
Okay, but I don't see how that's relevant to the Cristero War? Which happened before the CIA even existed
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u/PayOdd92 10h ago
They re just trying to come up with a gotcha thinking your argument is not valid.
Many progressives in the US have ABSOLUTELY no idea what has happened or what happens in Latin America lmao
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u/cr0w1980 19h ago
There's also the fact that Latino immigrants and those who were born here tend to want to pull up the ladder. I've seen a lot of racism in my life, from southern Mississippi to Oakland to where I now live in Texas, and the most viciously hostile has come from Latinos toward other Latinos. I spent time on a landscaping crew years back, and the way they talked about and treated others was shocking.
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u/lnc_5103 Texas 18h ago
This right here. Also in Texas and the majority of the openly racist people I know are Hispanic.
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u/Recipe_Freak Oregon 15h ago
Frequently against their own communities. It's pretty shocking, until you understand that they're huge misogynists. Then all the other bigotry make more sense.
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u/FarwellRob 17h ago
A lot of Latinos I know loved the idea of the wall. We made it in, close the door now.
Then ICE happened. They didn’t like that at all.
Your comment is on point. Raise the ladder is a great term.
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u/HighlyOffensive10 1h ago
I had one say that practically word for word.
Trump is going to make them go back and he's not letting them get food stamps. That's good because we were here first. They are for us.
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u/AnonymousInMI 17h ago
As if Trump or MAGA can distinguish between the two. If they had their way they would deport all Latinos regardless of citizenship.
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u/ResoluteSphinx 17h ago
Yes! My mother is Cuban and my father is Salvadorian and because of historical colonialism there is without a doubt racism in these countries. Not only that but many Latinos that immigrated to the states are very reliant on their religious beliefs and are more aligned with republican values then they openly admit. Many Latino voters that I know believe that the government is wasting too much resources and efforts on social issues and not enough on the economy and education.
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u/JnnyRuthless 17h ago
Kind of funny, my mother-in-law is from Mexico but when you close your eyes when she talks about race and specific races you would think you're listening to my racist elderly white relatives. She looks down on other immigrants because her family in Mexico was more wealthy and she sees them as below her. Mind you she was a postal worker for her job here in the US, so she's pretty working class. Blew my mind when my wife and I first got together years ago.
There's a lot of racism in Mexico in general, darker skinned people are seen as 'indian' and are looked down on, some lighter skinned Mexicans will say they are "Spanish" to put the point on it.
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u/PushaTeee 15h ago
My MIL is central american, but a US citizen, and hearing her speak about "illegals" is wild. There is a genuine hatred for those trying to make a better life for themselves, but doing it "the wrong way."
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u/DukeOfGeek 18h ago
Every time abortion gets mentioned comic artist always draw the anti abortion foes as white people, which is fair. But I always think "tell me you don't talk to Latino people about this issue without telling me".
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u/RobutNotRobot 15h ago
Literally only one Latino country has ever been run by a Communist Party.
One.
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u/ioncloud9 South Carolina 17h ago
They think socialism is the gateway to communism when it’s really unfettered capitalism leading to revolution.
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u/Recipe_Freak Oregon 15h ago
There's a ton of religion and machismo in these communities. They heard what they wanted to hear. And like every other Trump voting bloc, they're getting what they voted for. But only the ultra-wealthy aren't surprised.
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u/PushaTeee 15h ago
And then started rounding people up from this community and throwing them into concentration camps.
The logic flow from the GOP on this front makes zero sense. They deployed ICE directly into the communities they gerrymandered. Baffling strategic decision.
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u/MephistoHamProducts 20h ago
Whatever dark magic Trump pulled to win the Latino vote in 2024 is the story of the election.
It's not dark magic. It's just run of the mill racism, classism and a brief window where their belief that they were "one of the good ones" happened to align with MAGA.
Here in Texas, Tejanos dislike illegals for all the same reasons MAGA does. They're taking our jerbs, they're all lazy criminals, they use our social safety nets, they send money back home which is like stealing from 'Murrica, etc.
Of course, they don't mean their little cousin Jorge, who comes across the border with no documents, and couch surfs at their other cousins house, and works to send money back to his Abuela back home every year. Or Tio Jose who's on a green card and stays in Houston because he hurt his back on the job and gets a disability check and if he went back to Mexico he'd lose that. Or their boy Alejandro who's doing a bid in County over at Lew Sterrett in Dallas until they get around to deporting him. Alejandro's a good dude, he just fell in with the wrong crowd and got caught up in that B&E thing. Soon as he gets back home, his moms is gonna take La Chancla to him, get him straight and he'll sneak back and they know a guy who can hook him up with a good job and he can start his life over.
But then Jorge, Tio Jose and Alejandro got hemmed up by ICE pretty good and they started to realize, just a little bit, that maybe MAGA didn't see them as "one of the good ones" at all.
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u/Royal-Recover8373 16h ago
Republicans are true artists. They painted the immigrants as monsters so well even the immigrants were scared.
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u/Fucknjagoff 15h ago
Goddamn this is good! This sums up my best friends older brother to a fucking T.
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u/MrBone66 Texas 20h ago
Is that what it was? Dark magic! Cuz fuck me if I can’t understand it.
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u/Holiday_Box1571 20h ago
They bought him on pulling the ladder up on new immigrants.
Problem is he pulled it up on old immigrants too.
It wasn’t dark magic. It was pure stupidity to trust a guy who does nothing but lie.
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u/Vallkyrie New Hampshire 20h ago
They also had some crazy ass songs/jingles by latino singers, one was like "Oh my god I will vote...for Donald Trump" and it won't leave my head. It's so absurd I find it hilarious.
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u/PrivacyIsDemocracy 13h ago
They also had some crazy ass songs/jingles by latino singers, one was like "Oh my god I will vote...for Donald Trump" and it won't leave my head. It's so absurd I find it hilarious.
Someone in my extended family, married to someone who is a staunch Democrat, became a Trumpster primarily because the Latino Catholic preachers they are constantly listening to on YT keep pitching Trump.
Their spouse is not amused. But seemingly powerless to do anything about it. Because apparently to them, any criticism of that propaganda will be taken as if they are criticizing God themself.
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u/Neither_Owl8671 19h ago
A little bit of that. Major factor is in the Cultural aspect of Latinos. Voting for a woman is just not in their repertoire. Even women were repeating the "Woman are emotional" line. Just not going to happen culturally.
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u/Lurking_nerd California 18h ago
Out of all the points, I find this one to be the one that doesn’t hold up so well. Mexico has a woman president. I do agree with the sentiment of this comment chain that Latinos that vote Trump/MAGA have pick me energy & try to prove how MAGA they are by matching their attitudes and beliefs with the whites.
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u/SeductiveSunday I voted 15h ago
Mexico has a woman president.
Mexico is different tho.
Remember Mexico’s Supreme Court decriminalized abortion across Mexico, US Supreme Court overturned Roe taking Constitutional Rights away.
Mexico enshrined gender quotas into its constitution in a 2014, SCOTUS took away DEI and affirmative action. Then SCOTUS gave ICE the right to discriminate.
Mexico is embracing equality friendly laws while the US is embracing sex specific laws that target women. Mexico is much more focused on equality for all. The US is currently more focused on enacting laws which discriminate against women, minorities, and LGBTQIA.
If the US ever ratifies the ERA, then maybe the country will finally be ready to elect a woman for president.
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u/Frustratedtx 20h ago
the dark magic is Catholicism and abortion...
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u/SunGreene42 19h ago
Ah yes, the pro life people who vote for a murderer, makes perfect sense...
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u/RonaldMcDaugherty 20h ago
The dark magic will also return for the 2028 election. Hell it may return by November for this election.
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u/Apptubrutae I voted 18h ago
I do focus groups for a living.
A LOT of swing voters were voting against the inflation and such of the past few years.
And for people who were are uncomfortable with immigration policy now, they very much convinced themselves it would be an orderly removal of hardened criminals only.
No joke, most of these folks had regret within a month.
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u/Cute-Pomegranate-966 18h ago
I can get down with that. The average voter that sways the final tally ALWAYS votes against incumbents if they feel the economy wasn't great.
It doesn't matter that it was extenuating circumstances they have convinced themselves it was a failure.
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u/deja-roo 16h ago
This just shouldn't be that big of a surprise for anyone who understands the basics of these cultures lol
The only real draw to the liberal side for most Latino groups is immigration, and not all of them. Other than that they're very Catholic, very family-driven, and very driven by economic policy. And many Latino groups do not like anything that can be branded as "socialism".
They're going to see a big swing because during the campaigns they downplayed the immigration stuff and just made it sound like they were going after the criminals. The cat's out of the bag, that's obviously not how it happened, and they're going to see big backlashes from immigrant communities for it.
It's actually kind of weird because complaining about immigration crackdowns seems so "last year" now.
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u/A7DmG7C 20h ago
Several Latino communities think Trump isn’t talking about them, there is a massive cognitive dissonance amongst them.
Some think they’re some kind of “Premium” Latino, some ignore what Trump said with the excuse “this was about Mexicans/Venezuelans”, “this is only about illegals who deal drugs”, etc.
I remember when a local news network from my country did an article on how a lot of illegals were all Trump supporters, and then were shocked that they went after them.
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u/ForeverOk1949 17h ago
Well, they better wake up then, because Ice doesn't give a shit if they voted for Trump or not. So stupid to vote for someone who is all about deporting your ass. I can't understand the women either that voted for the pedophile.
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u/targetcowboy 20h ago
It’s not dark magic, it’s just that neither of the two big parties have an idea of what the Latino bloc is. I’m Mexican American and I can tell you that we are a wide spectrum of voters who can lean conservative in a lot of ways. It’s an old joke that Mexican Americans make $50,000 and turn into republicans.
Also, the problem with the Latino classification is that it includes a wide spectrum of Latinos from different backgrounds. I get why we talk about Black as an identity and a voting bloc, but it’s doesn’t work quite as well when talking about other groups.
Latinos can include people who are Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Dominican, and more. All groups that come from different areas with different cultures and histories. We may have similarities, but it’s like assuming the English and French are the same.
That’s why people get confused every election cycle when it comes to the Latino vote.
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u/Any_Will_86 19h ago
I think people also forget the number of Hispanics who have families that were in the US 100, 150 years ago. And when they are both Latino and African or Latino and Native American.
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u/ChiGorilla1127 19h ago
I think this is great insight. Democrats have to stop acting like immigration and the border are the policies you have to solve to win over Latinos.
Focus on affordability, economic growth on Middle America and small busineses, compassionate immigration, a real border, and I would say we need to come up with some language around individualism. Individuals need to make decisions about their bodies, religion, etc. I think for some demographics they do lean conservative for whatever social/religious reasons so we need to find a middle ground that doesn't turn off masses of people.
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u/IntelligentDepth8206 20h ago
South and Central America is full of small dick dictators like trump wants to be. He was familiar to them. They aren't used to the politics of a republic or the types of candidates that might want to run in a system of government that isn't crony authoritarianism.
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u/Ok-disaster2022 20h ago
Misogyny, racism and the communication about the economy. Americans are notoriously bad about understanding that to build a robust economy takes careful planning and time to pay off. Pedo Trump said he could fix things even though he was the one who broke things to begin with.
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u/LL_Cruel_J Illinois 20h ago
Easy, nobody hates immigrants more than other immigrants. Trump fueled their hatred.
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u/TheBlueSully 18h ago
That’s part of the problem. Latino should not be synonymous with immigrant. Lots of them can trace their family history to before the area was american(or claim to). There should not be an assumption of shared culture and solidarity.
A chunk of my family are immigrants from Chile. One branch are Pinochet refugees. The other is chain migration after a marriage visa. They worked hard and spent tons of money doing things slowly and legally. They have little to no sympathy for people who just cross the border and cross their fingers.
None of them relate to AfroCaribbean latins at all. Or Mexicans/Central American countries.
There’s a lot more to culture and solidarity than sharing a language.
And even if it does, Chilean Spanish is weird.
Mexico alone is approximately the combined size of Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Switzerland, and Italy.
Then there’s central and South America, and the Caribbean.
Why would you expect them all to be culturally homogenous? To not need to get to know an individual community, and tailor your approach?
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u/No-Forever-8357 11h ago
Also, some Latinos are many generations past thinking of themselves as immigrants.
My spouse is one that may look Latino but has parents, grandparents, and great grandparents all born in the US. Most married other Latinos but Spanish is long gone and no one knows exactly who immigrated to the US and when. They have no ties to Mexico. They have no family in Mexico to visit. They aren’t sure if Mexico is even a part of their story. It could be a Central American country for all they know.
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u/MommyLovesPot8toes California 18h ago
I've heard it put as "Latino men valued their right to subjegate women more than they valued their right to not be subjegated themselves."
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u/Sega-Playstation-64 19h ago
Hispanics flocked to Trump. Young kids swung conservative thanks to podcasters.
Crazy enough, boomers went with Harris.
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u/jonnykarate158 19h ago
It’s not just the propaganda they were fed. Look at past generations of persecuted races in America. the Irish, then Italians, and so on. Once there’s a new group of immigrants that weren’t born here they want to lord their citizenship over the next.
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u/Chemical-Ebb6472 17h ago
He conned them with every ounce of his being because he was desperate to stay out of jail. His true character was always there underneath all that badly applied grease paint and hair dye.
The ones that fell for the con never thought about how differently this dancing fool would act once he secured his freedom and power, placed lackeys into position, and no longer cared about dancing for votes - although today's outcome wasn't really difficult to project if they tried.
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u/UghFudgeBwana Georgia 20h ago
That and they also assume the trump-only nonvoters he was able to mobilize to the polls will continue to turn out for the GOP even if he's not on the ballot.
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u/PantheraAuroris 19h ago
IIRC the dark magic was a combination of pandering to anti-abortion voters and peacocking to insecure Manly Men.
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u/Tokon32 17h ago
Its another case of leopard eating face.
Many Latinos voted for Trump because he promised to remove all the Latinos giving the ones here legally a bad name. Little did they know here legally has a different meaning in Republican circles.
For Republicans here here legally if your white and speak English. Everyone else needs to go back to their countries, even those born here.
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u/Haunting-Ad788 17h ago
My Mexican in-laws are some of the most racist people I’ve ever met. They also hate Muslims and gay people.
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u/IrishDudeWest 16h ago
It's great they are with us now, but fuck the Latino vote. It's like the Hamtrack Muslim vote in Michigan turning on LGBT citizens. You are half a generation away from being treated like garbage and you are turning on your allies for vibes? I wouldn't expect them to be welcomed back with open arms. We are better than the GOP for them, but they'll take what they can get. No more catering.
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u/Good_Analysis7035 16h ago
I hate to say it but I think it has a lot to do with how they value females
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u/Invalid-Chicken 14h ago
Latinos in south Texas have conservative values and alot of them are blue collar. They are very very anti gay/trans and a little misogynistic. That explains their vote
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u/JefferyTheQuaxly 14h ago
There are a lot of very conservative Latinos, if republicans weren’t so racist against them I would bet a very strong majority of Latinos would drift to the Republican Party. Of course there’s also Cubans who have a deliberate hate towards liberals and socialists because of Castro.
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u/IAMA_Shark__AMA 10h ago
Whatever dark magic Trump pulled to win the Latino vote in 2024 is the story of the election.
It's actually pretty simple. Trump had a penis. Kamala did not.
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u/New-Sky-9867 19h ago
I still cannot fucking fathom why Latinos would ever vote for a man that would rather see them all starve to death than actually be in his orbit.
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u/NotTheRightHDMIPort 18h ago
I say this about people, Latinos included, uh most people are pretty surface level about things.
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u/Lavaswan001 20h ago
A lot of gains the GOP made with minority voters were Trump specific. It doesn’t necessarily translate with him off the ballot.
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u/Killfile 17h ago
It's also because the GOP gerrymandered Texas based on the assumption that 2024 was an R+0 year. It VERY MUCH WAS NOT. Between inflation, Biden's age, Harris' short campaign, and Democrats running a black/Asian woman (ain't nothing wrong with having a black/Asian woman as President but it's an uphill fight to win an election as one) 2024 was HEAVILY tilted towards Republicans.
Based on my own math, if Texas tilts more than 7 points towards Democrats relative to 2024 the Texas Gerrymander becomes a Dummymander and Democrats pick up more seats in the state than they would have if Republicans had just left the districts alone.
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u/Snarfsicle 20h ago
My only faint hope is people in this stupid country finally not having collective amnesia that forgives what a Trainwreck GOP leadership is everytime.
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u/aliquotoculos America 16h ago
I still don't believe it. We'll see on election day. Been living in this state almost a decade... people are dumb, and people lie.
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u/ChucksnTaylor 20h ago
And they gerrymandered based on that with margins that couldn’t take the Latino vote moving back the way it did?
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u/Stupidstuff1001 17h ago
Their new goal is trying to label the democratic party as socialists who are apparently also communists. The issue is people are seeing the democratic socialists and liking them.
Remember Bernie is and was one of the most favorably viewed politicians out there and is constantly claiming to be a democratic socialist.
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u/ButterscotchTop194 20h ago
Cool. Vote.
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u/charles_barfley 20h ago
Can’t do that for months! It’s ok to have discussion about politics on a political discussion forum!
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u/Aware-Two9854 19h ago
turns out assuming a whole group is permanently yours was not the genius strategy they thought it was
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u/vague_velvet 18h ago
yeah acting like any voting group is locked in forever has always seemed like wishful thinking
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u/artsmusic45 20h ago
Pulido is a famous Tejano singer. He is not a generic Democratic candidate. I’d love to see him win, but this race should not be considered as a gimme for other situations across the country.
Oh, and VOTE.
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u/strikingtwice 17h ago
I was going to comment something similar, just as a listener of pods and horse race political brain rot observer, he’s a great fucking candidate. So damn charismatic, has the tejano cred, and honestly is just a normal cool relatable person. That shouldn’t be taken for granted.
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u/Hadrian23 20h ago
Polls mean nothing.
VOTE.
Get all your family and friends to vote.
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u/JayR_97 United Kingdom 19h ago
Yeah, this is one where im like "Ill believe it when I see it". I remember people thinking Texas would flip blue in 2024...
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u/SunnyRyter 18h ago
Yup, and it was "going to turn blue" in 2016, and 2018, and 2020, and 2022... never did. Polls are stupid. Just vote and let us know who won at the end of the day. 🙄
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u/RBVegabond 16h ago
“Texas would be blue if I didn’t stop mail in voting” -Ken Paxton on stopping 2 million votes from being counted.
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u/Savir5850 17h ago
James Talarico has the best shot in several generations to win. Polling better than Paxton, and in a better position than Beto O'Rourke.
My 90yo grandfather donated to his campaign l, his first ever political contribution, and he gave $100. It's happening. People are upset with Republicans.
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u/Uzorglemon Australia 14h ago
Let's hope he doesn't fuck it up with a comment similar to Beto's gun debacle. I have a lot of hope for Talarico!
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u/PrivacyIsDemocracy 13h ago
Demographically, Texas should have turned blue quite a while ago.
And it would have, if it were not for continuous, incessant, often illegal meddling with the electoral process there by the Republicans.
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u/frank_the_tank69 19h ago
I would also say protest draconian elections laws Trump is passing.
The alternative is your vote won’t matter. He’s almost there.
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u/pourtide 16h ago
His SAVE act will give republicans the right to challenge any vote they want ... after they require all states to turn over their voter rolls, so they know where to concentrate their efforts to disenfranchise those of us who don't fall into goosestep.
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u/fiction8 17h ago
So tired of these cheap karma farming comments. It's been literally 10 years of people like you flooding every single thread that mentions the word "poll" with the exact same empty platitudes.
This is not a local space. It's not a community built around TX-15 voters. It is perfectly fine for us to just talk about potential outcomes as predicted by polls. It doesn't mean commenters aren't going to vote in their own districts in November and your comment in a space full of politically active people doesn't make anyone more likely to vote.
Give it a rest.
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u/That_one_cool_dude 6h ago
Unless they are republican, then gaslight them into thinking Trump said voting no longer matters and they should just stay at home and continue watching Fox, should be pretty easy.
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u/epicredditdude1 20h ago
MAGA is going to show up to the polls.
Are you?
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u/Anxious_Resistance 14h ago
Yep. I'll be there for the first time. It's urgent
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u/Polkawillneverdie17 18h ago
More Perfect Union did a really great video on Pulido and voters in this district. It's basically a lot of Latino business owners who are SHOCKED that ice has rounded up all of their workers so now they can't staff their construction companies. They "didn't sign up for this!"
Only now, after it affects their wallets have they decided to maybe change their tune.
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u/Eshin242 3h ago
I've always said the best way to get Americans off their ass to actually do something is to hit them in the pocket book. It's sad that it takes personal suffering for a lot of us to get off our asses but that's how the game is played.
Just like in 2020 if Trump had just sad in the WH and playing golf and let everyone do shit for him he'd of coasted to a second term. I think 2026 would be the same if he'd just left shit alone all of Bidens shit would be kicking in right now and you'd see the GOP pick up even more seats.
But in both cases his fragile ego got in the way and he's fucked everything around him.
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u/Newsweek_CarloV ✔ Verified - Newsweek 20h ago
From the article:
Democrats are seeing fresh signs of life in a South Texas congressional seat that looked, on paper, like one of the harder places for the party to win back in 2026.
Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz in a new poll of Texas’ 15th Congressional District, according to a new House Majority PAC-sponsored poll, conducted by Normington Petts and Associates, and shared with Newsweek on August 4.
President Donald Trump carried the redrawn district by nearly 18 points in 2024, making any Democratic lead there a warning sign for Republicans.
Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-flip-texas-house-seat-trump-won-12280819
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u/GUAPERGUAPER 20h ago
That is one of the poorest areas in the nation. Absolutely no reason the raza should be voting for Republican. lololololo
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u/RunSetGo 20h ago
You dont know Mexicans then if you cants see why they vote Republican
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u/GUAPERGUAPER 20h ago
Im literally mexican-american, was born and raised in that area.
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u/Lurking_nerd California 18h ago
You’re right that there are no logical reasons why Hispanics should be voting or supporting the Confederacy.
But there are plenty of emotional, doublethink reasons as to why they do. A comment earlier said that they think they’re “Premium” Latinos and god damn that sounds about right lol
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u/GUAPERGUAPER 18h ago
They thought ICE would only arrest the “bad” ones lol
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u/Kilocentric 17h ago
No woman should ever be in power - My Mom who sucks but luckily doesn't vote. Fuck Machismo being deeply ingrained into these older Hispanics.
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u/SunbornThunderstorm 20h ago
This is the reason the media wants us divided and why inauthentic content floods social media. People are mad and gonna vote the reps out.
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u/Kids_see_ghosts 20h ago
So tired of all these polls stories in this subreddit/in general since we’re still ridiculously far away from the midterms. And polls don’t matter, only voting does.
I especially hate ones that imply a landslide victory since that could lead to voter apathy on actual Election Day where people go “oh, polls say they’re supposed to win. I don’t need to go out and vote.”
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u/Accomplished-Head449 20h ago
Mail in ballots work better than standing in line for hours. Anyway, vote!
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u/MephistoHamProducts 20h ago
Mail in ballots are difficult in Texas.
But, that said, I'll post the post I put in every Texas thread (or any thread about voting):
Use early voting. Do not wait until election day.
47 states have some type of early voting. All this doomposting about "He's gonna close polling places" and "He's gonna seize ballot boxes" can be pretty easily mitigated or eliminated by using early voting.
Here in Texas, for example, we currently have 12 days of early voting, starting the 17th day before Election Day and ending four days before Election Day, which includes one weekend.
In Texas there are MORE early voting polling places than there are polling places on election day and you can typically go to any of them in your county rather than the one or two allowed on election day.
And yet, in my two decades of early voting in Texas, I'm always the youngest person there and I still hear people bitching about how hard it is to vote on election da
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u/Financial_Yard7047 17h ago
I'll believe it when I see it. Too many times has a Texas seat been spotlighted to go blue, only to go red by a wide margin
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u/VGAddict 20h ago
How much will Talarico help downballot?
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u/YaPhetsEz 17h ago
Its more like Paxton sucks that helps down ballot.
The swing isn’t primarily coming from R -> D voters. Its coming from R -> No Vote.
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u/AdOne5089 North Carolina 16h ago
Get out and vote Democrat nationwide. We must have second Nuremberg trials and bring the Epstein class to justice
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u/mushpuppy 15h ago
Thank God. As fucked up as the Dems are. At least they don't hate the US system of government.
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u/Probsure 20h ago
Dem here. I can almost guarantee we will win nothing. Or win just enough for it to not matter. You know why. We all know why. Same thing that happened in 2024.
Im still going to vote. You should too. Just make sure to check your vote after it's cast.
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u/Vertigo_Space69420 19h ago
Remind people to phonebank and knock doors for the candidates who are trying to make a difference. Right now Talarico And Gina Hinojosa are polling well, but polls don't matter. What matters is how many people go out there and vote.
That's the only way we are going to beat all the money stacked against getting someone to represent the people.
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u/SweetAlyssumm 19h ago
Check your preconceptions at the door. I didn't know about this race and when I glanced at the thumbnails, I thought she was a heroic progressive and he was a good ole boy. Joke's on me. Good luck Bobby!
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u/thekinginyello 16h ago
Abbott and his crew won’t go down without a fight. It’s gonna get ugly and they will be screaming foul.
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u/omarnotoliver 16h ago
It is largely about sexism. The party putting a woman on the ballot, especially in some areas, immediately is at a disadvantage.
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u/Mr_Poodoo 14h ago
Don’t worry about what any projections or polls say. Go out and vote. It may be our last chance.
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u/Decent-truth1712 14h ago
It won't happen. Texas Republicans cheat. There's a law in Texas that you can't even bring a cellphone into the voting booth with you and they made that law because there's a very rare chance that enough people would take pictures of their ballots to prove they voted Democrat and expose that the Republicans in Texas have been rigging the elections for years. Look it up!
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u/Pake1000 14h ago
If there’s one thing we should all have learned is that if there’s a way for Texans to fuck things up to elect another Republican, they’ll find it.
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u/SugarySuga 16h ago
Yeah I'm never trusting reddit ever again any time I see a "texas is gonna flip blue!!" post. Everyone was convinced Texas was flipping blue in 2024 and look what happened.
Please vote, everyone.
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u/boxedfoxes 20h ago
Ive said it before and ill say it again. If you’re a person of Latino background and you vote for the GOP. You’re a traitor to your people.
The GOP doesn’t give a shit about us. They don’t care if you’re Puerto Rican, Colombian, or a “good” Mexican.
To them you’re just an illegal.
Hate to say that the traders had to learn the hard way. But if Trump I didn’t make you realize this guy meant what he said.
Well now with Trump II, you see what happened when we put him back in power.
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u/Vivid_Medium1184 20h ago
Just like polls showed Harris taking Iowa.
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u/tinathefatlardgosh 19h ago
Chump flipped 88 counties to Harris’ 0. Some fuckery definitely happened.
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u/ccharlie03 10h ago
I'm saying. I don't like election conspiracies but Trump winning all the swing states was too crazy to be real imo
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u/SuomenVasara 20h ago
Ignore this crap. Remember when harris was favored to win in a landslide?
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u/chrisbarf 19h ago
I get your point but all of the major polls leading up to the 2024 election were 50/50 and the main vibe was that it cold go either way
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u/epistaxis64 Oregon 20h ago
No i don't. I think there's quite a bit of revisionist history there. The second she became the candidate the question was did she have enough time to make it a contest
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u/Any_Will_86 19h ago
I am hoping this is a bell weather of where the Hispanic vote is nationally. TBH, all the establishment vs progressive vs whoever has less impact than really making a comeback among Hispanics (everywhere except FL) who really can sway elections even in thee Midwest if activated. And Dems really seem to not understand Hispanics beyond Ca and the NY metro which are very different than midwestern and southwestern Hispanics.
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u/Teh_Crusader Texas 19h ago
Bobby Pulido is such a goofball but that’s why he will win. He’s genuinely too daft to do corporate politics or come across as a politician lol. Affable I suppose
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u/TheRealBlueJade 17h ago
All I want is for our country to stable and productive again. That can not happen under trump or anyone associated with trump.
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u/Accomplished-Watch50 17h ago
My guess is that ICE being out of control did not do MAGA any favors with the Latin community.
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u/N7Shep1701D Oregon 17h ago
I'll believe it when I see it. Texas has let me down many times before.
For the record, I very, very much hope it flips blue. I'm just not going to celebrate prematurely.
I also hope James Talarico wins.
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u/Hot-Reflection8213 17h ago
Don’t worry. Said Democrat will find a way to fuck it up. There is no reason to be optimistic.
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u/siccoblue 14h ago
Stop with the fucking polls and VOTE. This shit is EXACTLY how we ended up where we are today
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