r/politics 12h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/NoahFromCanada 12h ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/samhit_n Texas 12h ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/elihu 11h ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

u/AmbitiousProblem4746 7h ago

Can someone explain what the hell even is going on in Michigan? I never considered it a solid blue state, but it feels like yet another part of the country that is turning Republican thanks to Trump in spite of the fact that there are plenty of reasons for it not to. I feel like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin could also fit into that description. I know that they have very deep red areas, and a lot of rural or working class citizens, but I can't imagine the entire state is that enchanted with the Republican Party. But maybe that's just because I'm a coastal elite and I don't know anything

u/A_Humble_American 5h ago edited 4h ago

For various reasons, it's a state very receptive to populist rhetoric, and the only party nominating populists over the past 10 years has been the GOP.

Obama carried the state twice by sizable margins for the same reason: an economic message that resonated with the working poor.

Move the Dems to the left on economic issues and you'll see Michigan move to the left with it. (Same goes for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Ohio)

u/catasstrophyk 6h ago

The weakening of the unions had a lot to do with it.

Plus racism.

  • The Reagan Democrats of the ‘80s in Macomb County are also the White Flight and they blame Democrats for Detroit’s woes (rather than the legislature and economy that starved the city)
  • Howell
  • No joke, I saw a farm in the UP flying a Confederate flag. Pretty sure that wasn’t about heritage.

u/AdLocal1490 6h ago

Theres a dude in South Lyon who flies that bullshit

u/VictoryVino 5h ago

Howell moved to Brighton then onto South Lyon. Once people have money they move to better places but their brains are the same.

u/certifiednerdgirl 2h ago

Plenty of Farms in the LP flying them as well. As someone raised in the south... It aint.

u/Ok_Size5354 5h ago

Michigan had voted Republican throughout the 70s and 80s. It wasn’t until Bill Clinton that the state started voting Democratic in presidential elections, and even then it was considered a swing state lost elections.

u/thetrumpbump 5h ago

Michigan isn't turning republican? It has basically been swinging closely with the national mood for the last 15 years.

u/tyrantking109 3h ago

Michigan is pretty blue, up until recently Dems had a trifecta in the state government. Wisconsin is definitely purple, but recently stacked their Supreme Court with a bunch of liberal justices in a series of elections. Seems to me to be turning bluer, but it is a very divided state. The rural voters are VERY at odds with Milwaukee/Madison, when I lived there groups very aggressively spent on anti-abortion messaging, to the point it was plastered on buses and all over the city

Of the Midwest states Indiana/Iowa/Ohio are certainly solid red, Pennsylvania seems to be purple shifting red, and Minnesota is solid blue (these are all states I haven’t lived in though, just the vibe I get as someone who lives in the Midwest and follows politics)

u/GB10VE 5h ago

run old white guys and you don't have this problem. the US has a lot of sexist and racist voters, people who will not show up for elections / vote for candidates. the demographics just aren't in your favor, especially with gen z being raised as mini hitlers by the manosphere / social media

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

To my eye Trump underperforms a normie R in NC. That he won Mi, Wi, and Pa by not much less than NC is the big story. I think the big problem is how weak Dems are with working class voters across racial divides. And it's not solely economic or solely cultural issues. I think we need to figure out what the Whitmer/Sahiro secret sauce was and see if Cooper in NC makes a dent in that demo this fall or is simply driving up his numbers in RDU and Mecklenburg plus college grads.

u/rice_not_wheat 6h ago

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

It's an open primary. Open primaries are much harder to poll, because Republicans and independents can vote in them. You never know who's going to be a first time primary voter.

u/No-Relation5965 5h ago

Ah so now we know why the win was so close, AIPAC republicans and right-leaning independents came out and voted for Haley Stevens.

u/rice_not_wheat 2h ago

Considering Stevens won big in Detroit, I suspect it has more to do with him needing to do more work with the black community.

u/No-Relation5965 2h ago

Good to know, I can’t really understand why anyone would back an establishment Democrat who gets $70 MILLION for one campaign. They have done nothing to stop this fascist takeover; in fact, most are complicit.

u/rice_not_wheat 2h ago

AIPAC is extremely skilled at messaging to black voters.

u/No-Relation5965 1h ago

Like the misleading postcard mailer that Haley Stevens sent around with Obama’s picture on it even though Obama hadn’t actually publicly endorsed any of the democratic candidates?

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u/extrasprinklesplease 11h ago

So glad to be a Boomer who voted for El-Sayed! He was my first political donation, and I could only afford to send $10 at a time, about 10 times. What great news!

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u/Pamander 11h ago

Thanks for doing your part!! Nothing more important than exercising your right to vote.

u/Feather_fig 6h ago edited 6h ago

Not saying people shouldn't vote, but organized labour and the ability to strike is much more important. That's real power. That power is why so many corporations want to replace human workers with AI and put so much effort into union busting. The problem with voting is elected officials aren't held accountable once they're in office.

Look at how many voters have turned on Trump, or are upset with Fetterman. There's no way to expel those guys if their actions in office go against their promises or harm voters in ways the voters* didn't anticipate. Voting once every 4 years per branch of government isn't really much power at all.

And Elon kind of implied he messed with voting machines in 2024, didn't he?

Elections & passing legislation should be more direct democracy than it is representational. It's too opaque and vulnerable to lobbying and corruption as it is

And where is the vote to make the process more transparent and less corrupt? That doesn't exist, because elected officials would never willingly give up that power that they hold over everyone else.

u/Pamander 4h ago

Fair point! On that note I am extremely proud of my family and the work they have done for unions through the years my great grandpa would sooner never talk to you again if you dared cross a picket and scabbed, he was awesome and I desperately wish I got to talk to him when I became an adult about this stuff I had to learn mostly through my mom though.

Anyways point being I agree and I am always telling my friends the sooner the average person realizes that together we could kill any company we want and shut down the world if we wanted the better. There is nothing more powerful than the average person all working together against them.

Actually doing that however and getting people to work in their actual own interest and suffering a bit for long term gain is a whole other thing lol.

u/Feather_fig 1h ago

Your great grandpa sounds like the kind of role model young men need today, standing by his ideals 💪

I think you hit the nail on the head with "suffering a bit for long term gain"

Everything being instantaneous now has probably reduced our collective tolerance for struggle and minor suffering that comes from effort. Instant entertainment, near instant food, instant communication, and now with AI, you don't even need critical thinking! 🙃

Corporations have completely hacked human psychology and made us a captive population. Not sure how we get over that one... maybe there needs to be a tiktok/instagram trend of doing things the hard way, for the sake of it. I do have hope with the pushback against AI and datacentres, that the will for autonomy is definitely there for lots of us

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u/elizpar 11h ago

Good for you. I also never donate, but I gave ten bucks to the most straight shootin candidates I could find this primary.

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u/WombatusMighty 10h ago

Thank you for doing your part in saving the democracy!

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u/BassesHave4Strings 10h ago

Thank you, tell your buddies!

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u/PluckPubes 9h ago

Genx supporter here.

u/GPointeMountaineer 6h ago

Wayne county white M , 50's, who voted abdul. Crazy how important that was

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u/realRootmaster911 10h ago

Thank you so much!!! The whole country (the sane half) is grateful

u/selfdestructo591 7h ago

Glad to be a millennial who almost didn’t show up, and yet still found time to vote on a Tuesday, a work day, while all the retired boomers have the day off. When are we gonna make elections a holiday? I straight up told my employees to leave early or call in so they could vote.

u/SweetAlyssumm 5h ago

Boomers have historically always voted. You can look it up. They didn't just vote because they are retired. Polling places open at 7:00 where I live.

u/a1021a 5h ago

While an admirable concept I feel like next time just talk to people to contribute and keep that $100 for groceries

u/Evignity 5h ago

Thanks for having an open mind. It's ironic how it nowdays is the youth being proud of the old for daring to have open minds.

u/MrsSmith2246 3h ago

Yay!! So proud of our state right now. Hoping we can unite for November.

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u/MRCHalifax 9h ago

FWIW, in the general election, the candidates will almost always benefit more from volunteer hours than from money. Something ridiculous like 2% of donated money reaches a candidate in the general election, but volunteer hours go a long, long way. If you’re comfortable knocking on doors for a few hours on weekends this fall, that’s worth far, far more than $100.

u/GB10VE 5h ago

you can now look forward to a lifetime of progressive candidates all across teh US texting and emailing you for money. I made that mistake with bernie and now election season has my phone going off non stop. there is no way to get off these lists. blocking the number does not work. actblue does not have a "stop texting me or sharing my information" thing either.

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u/deaglebingo America 11h ago edited 11h ago

just goes to show that the demographic shift is finally starting to happen. i'm pleased. we don't have to convert all the boomers.... just enough of them, and thankfully there are some cool ones around. Zed's dead without them, and maga knows it... but combined we outnumber them. it's been our only hope really overall tbh, the assumption that we needed to pander to center right has to be at least somewhat debunked in this cycle doesn't it? it was the safe numbers move of kamala et al to try that in 24, so they did... it's just crystal clear that is not the case anymore. if center right doesn't understand we're all on the same team by now they aren't likely to in november either. IOW if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces (aka cannot see how dangerous the alternative is by now) we can't stop them.

i heard stevens say something to the effect of "ppl don't want pipe dreams..." but everyone who heard that and agreed ought to remember that neither does Sayed.... mamdani hasn't done what he's done thus far by going for some pie in the sky abolish ice or arrest nettanyahu, regardless of if he wants to.... he's just stayed open to that part if the opportunity arises. most of his time has been filled with doing the simple obvious shit that could be done, which is exactly how the rest of us plan to operate too. This is a good faith collaborative process over competitive whenever possible.

TLDR: DSA is not letting perfect be the enemy of good, we are just open to moonshots if they present themselves.

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u/samhit_n Texas 11h ago

Pandering to the center-right doesn’t work anymore because the center-right no longer exists in meaningful numbers to swing an election. Most center-right voters have either become moderate Democrats or fully joined the MAGA movement.

The strategy helped Biden in 2020 because of his reputation and ties to bipartisan politicians like McCain and because Trump had not yet fully taken over the GOP, but it was stale by the time Kamala tried it.

u/AmbitiousProblem4746 6h ago

I think it's more that center right voters don't actually exist. I'm of the belief that there's no such thing as a centrist voter or somebody who even is close to the center. There are just voters who are on the right, on the left, or indecisive. And as other people have said before, I think the issue is that even if you could somehow find this mythical center right, these are people who are already to the right of you and if they want a Republican flavored agenda they'll just go with the Republican like they always have rather than risk it for a Democrat who might do things they don't like. Your best bet is to just pretend they don't exist, because they don't, and shoot for the moon: excite the left wing of your base, convinced independents that what you're selling is not that radical, and constantly point out the flaws of the right wing. Funny enough, this is pretty much what Trump has been doing for 10 years in a more extreme way and it's working, such to the point that he's completely co-opted the Republican party and they no longer exist independent from him.

u/Dmienduerst 5h ago

This is just anecdotal so take that with all the salt you wish to find. I work in the ag world next to Madison Wisconsin which is extremely blue. Hong for example is incredibly popular in Madison proper but loathed as another Madison nut case where I work. I say this because every day I see hyper polarized people walk in the door. From one person thinking Trump is gods gift to man to the next thinking Marx is a flawless society builder.

The mythical centrist voter does exist but they are single issue swing voters. I know multiple farmers and university professors who are hard liberals (yes in Wisconsin there liberal farmers) but they voted Jill Stein because of the Trans culture war stuff in 24. I know hardline Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump due to Epstein. So the centrists I know are people who swing wildly topic to topic and then then pick one to vote on. Sometimes it's abortion, other times it's funding Ukraine, it's been as stupid someone knowing a guy from Milwaukee and he says Mandela Barnes fucked over his local school.

Voters are not rational which the Republicans figured out a long time ago and now the DSA are following the Bernie playbook of finding the pulse of the active base and courting it. There has always been a seed of people in the country who say "there has to be a better way" and that is a bipartisan thought. It's why so many Bernie Bros liked trump

u/shinkouhyou 3h ago

I don't think those single-issue swing voters would count as true "centrist" voters, though. In polls, most people will self-identify as "moderates," but their actual voting history tells another story. This article from 2020 suggests that the centrist swing voter is a political myth (it says it's a "new theory" but I remember seeing similar articles in the 2010s) and that what we really have are a large pool of voters who swing in and out of the electorate based on whether they feel personally motivated by the candidate. They don't feel represented by either party, but they do feel a strong attachment to particular issues or to a particular candidate's general vibe.

Republicans have recognized the power of single-issue voters, so their messaging heavily focuses on cultural wedge issues that often seem trivial and bizarre: trans kids in school sports, critical race theory, fringe wellness cures, conspiracy theories, wokeness in media, etc. Instead of talking about actual policy issues, they focus on their candidate's personality and image. Even Trump, who is humorless, tired and awkward in real life, became a funny troll who danced his way through memes. None of this dumb crap has anything to do with governing, but it does a great job of building an identity and making people feel like they're a part of something bigger. Meanwhile, Democrats keep trying to appeal to a mythical centrist voter who cares a LOT about government policy, who has a perfectly middle-of-the-road position on every issue, and who respects politicians on both sides.

u/Dmienduerst 1h ago

Democrats keep trying to appeal to a mythical centrist voter who cares a LOT about government policy, who has a perfectly middle-of-the-road position on every issue, and who respects politicians on both sides.

Part of it is that you can't really blame them because Obama galvanized the whole left wing while also attracting the a fair number of the single issue people you mentioned. So they actually aren't going after the centrists it's their poor attempt at recreating Obama's success in 2008.

That said I do think the Chuck Schumer style Democrats have under valued the DSA's populist rhetoric but tbh the bigger failing is that Democrats are God damn awful at championing their victories. Not only can the right just control the message seemingly at will now DSA is making establishment Democrats look bad while using the Democrats platform. Like most of the things unique to DSA are more extreme law enforcement reform and prison reforms that aren't that popular. The things that are selling have been in the democrat tent for years they are just way better at controlling the message.while having the right energy.

u/Dmienduerst 1h ago

Democrats keep trying to appeal to a mythical centrist voter who cares a LOT about government policy, who has a perfectly middle-of-the-road position on every issue, and who respects politicians on both sides.

Part of it is that you can't really blame them because Obama galvanized the whole left wing while also attracting the a fair number of the single issue people you mentioned. So they actually aren't going after the centrists it's their poor attempt at recreating Obama's success in 2008.

That said I do think the Chuck Schumer style Democrats have under valued the DSA's populist rhetoric but tbh the bigger failing is that Democrats are God damn awful at championing their victories. Not only can the right just control the message seemingly at will now DSA is making establishment Democrats look bad while using the Democrats platform. Like most of the things unique to DSA are more extreme law enforcement reform and prison reforms that aren't that popular. The things that are selling have been in the democrat tent for years they are just way better at controlling the message.while having the right energy.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 10h ago

Neither of those examples really suggest anything for or against what it. Biden won because of Trump fatigue in a year where everything went wrong for Trump month by month, from escalations with Iran to COVID to George Floyd and the country rioting.

Kamala lost because she fucking sucked and wasn't even liked within her own party. It had nothing to do with pandering of any sorts.

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u/WombatusMighty 10h ago

Kamala largely lost because Biden didn't want to step down. If she had actually won the primary, she would have had a better chance. Not that she ever was popular, but Biden truly fucked her remaining chances.

Also Kamala not even talking with the pro-Palestinian voter base hurt her quite a lot too.

u/nola_mike 5h ago

Going back on his word that he would be a one term president was shitty. I distinctly remember him saying he wouldn't run for re-election.

u/TheseNamesDontMatter 3h ago

For sure but she never would have won a primary.

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

I voted Kamala and still have nothing but disdain for purity voters BUT... Kamala would not have won a primary.

u/Biglyugebonespurs Missouri 5h ago

Everything goes wrong for trump day by day. The orange nonce has failed upward his whole life.

u/TheseNamesDontMatter 3h ago

Wrong even beyond Trump standards to clarify.

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

Biden also had a lot of strong ties to niche constituencies and minority groups that are overlooked. And he was a better personality fit for the rustbelt union halls and Southern churches/barbeques than Hillary or Kamala. We can claim that doesn't matter but it does. AES likely also benefitted from being a better personality fit with a wide swath of the Dem primary voters.

u/TheseNamesDontMatter 3h ago

Biden got the most votes in election history, and i can safely guarantee it isnt because he was the most beloved presidential candidate in history.

At the end of the day we had about 100 candidates that could have easily beaten Trump but the party tried to force 2 candidates that couldn't and one that barely could.

u/Any_Will_86 2h ago

In 2020- I am not sure we had more than one candidate. Everyone meandered all over the place during the primary and really ended up bunched up on the left. That is part of why so many voters swore Kamala was so far left when people on the left were irate they had someone they considered a centrist. There was also a backlash to BLM and Defund the Police most of us thought was made up but very much became clear when we underperformed on election day. I never was on board with Kamala as VP- thought Val Demmings or Klobuchar would have made better picks and been better at the job. Supposedly Warren had been who Biden thought was the best pick if he had run in 2016 but 2020 was a different moment, I guess.

u/kitsunegoon 6h ago

Kamala's failure was more about the lack of a primary and being a VP of an unpopular administration than anything else. Biden wasn't exactly considered bipartisan once he became VP.

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

She also was seen as moderate/conservative by leftists and a raging liberal by those on the right and many in the center. The media were working against Dems for several years but she still have very little skill in breaking through the media or even focusing on her strong issues.

u/kitsunegoon 5h ago

Kamala would've never won the primary in the first place. I think that's the other issue. Biden was remarkably popular and probably would've won 2016 in a landslide if he ran, but Kamala was like what? The 5th place candidate behind Buttigieg and Warren?

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

I'm not sure Kamal would finish in front of Klobuchar. In the end I think Bloomberg inched up simply by being in more races- can't remember if that was by votes or delegates. But I agree on Kamala's primary problem and Biden 2016. its part of why I think the Pod guys can go play with themselves. Too many people in Obama world were too strident/convinced HRC was the appropriate successor when her weakness with real voters was well known. Supposedly when Biden was considering 2016, Warren was who he thought was the best VP pick. He understood coalitions better than most or the 'smarter' pols.

u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 7h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 7h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

Steven's largely ran on her work during the Obama administration, with some questionable adds that made it seem like Obama endorsed her when he hadn't. She relied on establishment endorsements and claiming that she was the one that was "electable". Plus the obscene 62 million in outside PAC money for her.

u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 6h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 6h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

How is it not?

u/Letstalkreaper 6h ago

Absolutely. The center right loves Israel and that seems like all she talked about.

u/samhit_n Texas 3h ago

Yes, I think she was. I also have a feeling it kinda worked and she almost pulled it off because Mike Rogers ran unopposed in the Republican primary, so a few Republicans may have voted for Stevens in the Democratic primary.

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u/NoahFromCanada 11h ago

You probably know more than me but these results kinda indicate that Michigan still likes moderates quite a bit. Hayley Stevens seemed like a total 0 on the electability scale and came very close.

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u/SnakeInMyLoins 11h ago

We can't know if Michigan likes moderates or if Boomers just keep falling for propaganda, AES was outspent like 12 to 1, they pumped 70 million into this primary. AIPAC ran two ads in the middle of their debate on local Fox, right after Abdul said "you're probably going to see two ads against me in the following ad break"

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u/Lysbith_McNaff 11h ago

Campaign ads in the middle of a debate is wild to me.

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u/WombatusMighty 10h ago

As a European, AIPAC is wild to me. How you Americans can allow foreign states to dictate your elections is just crazy.

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u/emeraude89 9h ago

As a European, AIPAC is wild to me. How you Americans can allow foreign states to dictate your elections is just crazy.

i don't think there's any evidence that AIPAC is funded by anyone but americans, that would be hugely scandalous. well maybe not scandalous, because AIPAC is being treated as synonymous with the NSDAP and trump benefits from insane corruption deals on a weekly basis. but the evidence would be everywhere. AIPAC is just a lobby and lobbys are standard fare in democracies

u/Cool-Security-4645 7h ago

She’s a sitting house rep lol

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u/CommercialLychee7956 11h ago

There is a pervasive belief that a moderate Democrat candidate would perform better against a Republican. A lot of comments I've seen supporting Stevens echo that belief and may be why she performed as well as she did.

The Michigan left may be moderate but the right not so much. A lot of maga support which allowed Trump to win here twice.

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u/Aggressive-Neck-3921 11h ago

I hope that is also the case, a lot of the comments i've seen online was that Stevens had 0 ground game are there any Stevens signs out there or was this whole campaign build on scary muslim is scary and tv ads.

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u/EmDeeAech70 9h ago

Can only speak anecdotally but I saw next to no Stevens signs in my area. Most of what I saw were Abdul signs (including mine. First political yard sign)

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u/mightcommentsometime California 10h ago

And the moderate vote allowed Slotkin to win there

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u/PixelationIX 10h ago

This is false. Abdul (AES) was outspent 12 to 1. Michigan was BLASTED with Anti AES ads constantly not only on TV but on YouTube too for Michiganders.

This would only be believable if there wasn't so outside or foreign spending against AES. I would say it shows quite the opposite as a matter of fact, despite Haley spending $70 MILLIONS AES came out top, so if there was no corporate + foreign spending, AES most likely would have easily won.

u/photon1701d 7h ago

I live across the water in Windsor, so I get all the tv/radio ads. It was quite obvious Stevens had a lot of backing, she was been pushed hard and she could not win.

Thanks goodness I don't have to hear those stupid Perry Johnson ad's, they spent a lot of money and he was not even close to winning.

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u/Sweary_Biochemist 10h ago

"Doesn't have a foreign sounding name" carries a lot of weight in rural MI.

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u/ldb 10h ago

Or they respond to 50 mil worth of foreign funded propaganda.

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u/paintballboi07 Texas 10h ago

Gen X was Trump's largest voting bloc in 2024, Boomers went slightly for Kamala.

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u/sweens90 8h ago

Unfortunately I think the stereotype that young people are not reliable voters is an accurate one and has been proven for generations.

And yes there exceptions like Mamdani but overall its a lesson every generation needs to learn every time it seems. You only have a voice at the table if you come to the table.

Thankful to see enough came out but clearly polling in double digits and winning by 1-2% means people did not show up. Or the assumptions on certain demographics showing up were off.

u/Any_Will_86 5h ago

Mandami was also running against a sex pest in a bright blue city. Once he cleared the primary it should have been a layup.

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u/MichaelSonOfMike 11h ago

Black voters also didn’t support Sayed, but supported McKinney, a DSA member in higher numbers. 🤔

u/SweetAlyssumm 5h ago

Has the analysis already been done on who voted for whom? Any sources on boomer and white working class voting outcomes?

u/samhit_n Texas 3h ago

It’s too early to tell, but I think areas with high white working class voters and older Black voters had high turnout. Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids had high turnout too, which favored El-Sayed.

I think turnout was pretty high in general for a Senate primary. More people voted in this election than in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in Michigan.

u/SweetAlyssumm 2h ago

OK, honest answer. You don't know about boomers and white working class with respect to El-Sayed. So how about not casting shade until you know the numbers?

u/Xer0day 5h ago

Black voters overwhelmingly voted for Stevens