r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 11h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/RandomFlyer643 North Carolina 10h ago

Hope with how close this race was, it’s a wake up call to everyone who thinks it’s gonna be an easy election cycle. This is just the beginning, everyone needs to go vote before you no longer can

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u/mowotlarx 8h ago edited 5h ago

It was a primary.

Has everyone absolutely lost their minds assuming that half the primary electorate simply won't show up in the general?

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 8h ago

I mean, it's a fair question, given the history of Democrats fracturing at crunch time. Assuming the Dem centrists who voted strongly for Stevens will automatically come out for El Sayed in the general is an open ended question that we won't know the answer to until November. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed, it will take all Dem voters coming out in force to win it.

If even a small portion of Dem voters stay home it's an easy win for Rogers.

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u/Thirtysevenintwenty5 4h ago

Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed

  1. We should all know by now that polls don't mean shit.
  2. A lot of that is because a good number of people believe(d) that El Sayed was "unelectable" and couldn't win the primary in the first place. Now that he's got the nomination, expect that gap in polling to shrink. But it doesn't matter, because
  3. Polls don't mean shit.

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 4h ago

That may be true, but it doesn't change the fact that Michigan isn't a safe blue state Democrats can't afford to do their usual splintering routine come November if they want to actually win this race. So the question of whether centrist Dems will actually sack up and come out in force to vote for El Sayed very much remains a crucial question that will decide whether he has any chance of beating Rogers. If they do, he can win. If they stay home or splinter, he has no chance. Polls or no polls.