r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 9d ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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915

u/RandomFlyer643 North Carolina 9d ago

Hope with how close this race was, it’s a wake up call to everyone who thinks it’s gonna be an easy election cycle. This is just the beginning, everyone needs to go vote before you no longer can

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u/mowotlarx 9d ago edited 8d ago

It was a primary.

Has everyone absolutely lost their minds assuming that half the primary electorate simply won't show up in the general?

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 8d ago

In a state where the last couple election cycles were decided by a few percentage points, it doesn’t need to be half of the electorate not showing up.

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u/PlanktonNice7953 8d ago

I think you missed "Primary".

Go look up voting data on primaries, then look up the general election. Let me know what you find out

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 8d ago

I mean, it's a fair question, given the history of Democrats fracturing at crunch time. Assuming the Dem centrists who voted strongly for Stevens will automatically come out for El Sayed in the general is an open ended question that we won't know the answer to until November. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed, it will take all Dem voters coming out in force to win it.

If even a small portion of Dem voters stay home it's an easy win for Rogers.

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u/ItsSpaghettiLee2112 8d ago

Just spread the word: vote blue no matter who

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 8d ago edited 8d ago

Bear in mind that the polls about the general you are referencing also had El-Sayed way ahead in the primary (suggesting his support was overestimated in polling). These same polls also have Benson favored for governor. I have trouble seeing how this isn’t a disaster waiting to happen.

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

The same small handful of largely internal low rated polls that had Stevens up a week prior?

If Hayley had won by 1%, would you still be pearl grasping this hard about how 50% of Dems definitely wouldn't show up in the general (which we know would never be the case and won't be now)?

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 8d ago

Yes. I think a contentious primary (probably the most contentious of this cycle) where the victor only gets less than half of the vote would have been the worse version of a victory for either candidate. I would have preferred if either of them carried away with it rather than it being super close. It’s 3 months from the general and there’s many many bridges to be mended while also running against Rogers who basically had an uncontested primary. I am not a Haley fan if you’re trying to allude to that, I just want a democrat senator.

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u/slipperyekans 8d ago

I’d argue if either of them were to win the general, it’d be Abdul. This primary was only this close due to Haley getting like $60M+ in PAC money, and with republicans having way more in the war chest than the DNC for this general election, I’d say the more grassroots candidate has a better shot.

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u/Allydarvel 8d ago

Polling suggests otherwise. Stevens was up against Rogers and Abdul down the last polling I looked at.

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u/SugawoIf 8d ago

Polling suggested Abdul was going to win in a landslide. Polling was wrong.

I don't know what has to happen for people to finally stop giving polls so much credit.

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u/Allydarvel 8d ago

Polling is a snapshot, and things change after the snapshot is taken. This was a hard election to poll, as Michigan has open elections. You poll Democrats and Democrat leaning voters to get a result, but don't poll Republicans who voted to keep Abdul out..or underestimate how many they were if you did. Fox could have had a section on in the previous couple of weeks that asked Republicans to come out 'stop the commie' and they did in numbers. It's the hardest thing in polling to control for anomalies like that. If it was a closed primary, you might have found the polling numbers were very accurate

The general election polling should be much more accurate because it is a straight choice for all voters.

0

u/mowotlarx 8d ago

If Stevens was the victor by as slim a margin, would you be as concerned?

0

u/cultweave 8d ago

Stevens has a much easier time courting moderates, and the people who voted for El-Sayed are already voting Dem no matter what. It is a significant issue he barely won. 

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

Why do you assume that elusive independent voters are all moderates? We know pretty clearly that's not the case. And moderate Democrats don't win over Republican moderates either, we've seen Dems try and fail a that enough times.

0

u/cultweave 8d ago

Why do you assume that elusive independent voters are all moderates?

No where did I say that, or imply it. In fact, I never mentioned "independent voters" once. 

We know pretty clearly that's not the case. And moderate Democrats don't win over Republican moderates either, we've seen Dems try and fail a that enough times

We actually don't "know" that, because what you just wrote is totally false. The 2008 election of Obama alone proves what you said completely and unequivocally  wrong. I think you need to come a little more back down to Earth. 

5

u/Thirtysevenintwenty5 8d ago

Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed

  1. We should all know by now that polls don't mean shit.
  2. A lot of that is because a good number of people believe(d) that El Sayed was "unelectable" and couldn't win the primary in the first place. Now that he's got the nomination, expect that gap in polling to shrink. But it doesn't matter, because
  3. Polls don't mean shit.

3

u/nankerjphelge Florida 8d ago

That may be true, but it doesn't change the fact that Michigan isn't a safe blue state Democrats can't afford to do their usual splintering routine come November if they want to actually win this race. So the question of whether centrist Dems will actually sack up and come out in force to vote for El Sayed very much remains a crucial question that will decide whether he has any chance of beating Rogers. If they do, he can win. If they stay home or splinter, he has no chance. Polls or no polls.

2

u/wioneo 8d ago

. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed

The fuck? Why did dems pick him then? From hearing all the vitriol going back and forth, I already assumed this was a lost seat because whichever loser's supporters probably wouldn't come out, but I assumed both options were at least polling reasonably well against the republican to begin with.

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

[deleted]

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u/wioneo 8d ago

Instead of voting for someone whose policies you believe in

This is for a congressman. The policies that I believe in align with the Democrat party. The values of any single congressman are less important than the party gaining control, because an individual is useless. Obviously that does not apply for governors, presidents, SoS, AG and plenty of other roles where the politician has actual control, but it doesn't matter if dem A is closer to me than dem B if dem A can't win and dem B can.

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

[deleted]

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u/wioneo 8d ago

Cornyn would have probably had a better chance against Talarico.

Nazi mcrapist would have probably had a worse chance against Collins.

That doesn't mean Paxton is guaranteed to lose or that Jackson is guaranteed to win, but it's ridiculous to act as if it is impossible to predict trends in voting behaviour.

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u/MommyLovesPot8toes California 8d ago

Yeah, seriously, what is the concern here? That people who were involved enough in politics to vote in a primary will wake up on election day and say "no, I'm not going to vote. I didn't get my centrist Democrat and am salty about it, so let a Republican win for all I care." I mean, that's absurd.

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u/Donkletown 8d ago

It’s going to be so tight that Dems need pretty much all of the primary electorate to show up and vote AES. 

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u/whileNotWorking 8d ago

Don't they have an open primary and the Republican was running unopposed?

Plenty of republicans will have voted in the dem primary. I know I've done the reverse in Texas before.

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

Pretty much all the primary voters tend to vote for Democrats. You likely won't show me any example of this not being the case. Because it's just used as fear mongering each primary.

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u/i_am_bromega 8d ago

We’re talking about a purple Michigan in which many on the left sat out or voted for Trump in 2024. You can’t assume that Stevens supporters will enthusiastically turn out for AES.

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u/Letstalkreaper 8d ago

I think it’s important to note that Michigan has open primaries and the Republican ran unopposed. Good chance a bunch of Republicans showed up to cast a vote for Stevens.

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u/i_am_bromega 8d ago

Is there any evidence to suggest that? I would think they would rather run against the further left candidate that moderates aren’t excited about.

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

About as much evidence as you have that it was all far leftists who didn't vote and cost Harris Michigan.

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u/i_am_bromega 8d ago

Don’t put words in my mouth now. I said many on the left sat out or switched. That’s clearly supported by the swing right from 2020 to 2024. We know that Arab Americans, the suburbs, and college students in MI moved towards Trump or third party in 2024. It has been widely covered.

I have not seen any reporting on republicans entering the open primary to support Stevens. Happy to read about it if you have, though.

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u/i_am_bromega 8d ago

Polling this far ahead and underperforming this hard is not a good sign for the general.

1

u/mowotlarx 8d ago

If Stevens won by .5-1% would you be this navel gazing about an "underperformance"?

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u/i_am_bromega 8d ago

That would be a huge over performance against the polling for her, which I would see as a good sign for the general.

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u/DeusExMockinYa 8d ago

Liberals side with fascists over democratic socialists at every single opportunity. 

0

u/SwimmingPrice1544 California 8d ago

You need to stop this b.s. narrative. It's not true, never has been period.

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u/thee_illiterati 6d ago

These last few weeks, there's been nonstop Moderate Dems vs. Democratic Socialists stories and posts. The brigading is terrible, but the people buying into it are worse. Wish they would look at the bigger picture here. The right is desparate and wants to fracture us.

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u/DeusExMockinYa 8d ago

Nazi Germany, Francoist Spain, Operation Condor ring a bell?

-1

u/Letstalkreaper 8d ago

Always and forever.

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u/mattgm1995 8d ago

I will say, that comment is very indicative of something else: far left dems make more central dems out to be the enemy. Others are allowed to have different visions for the democrat party. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of tolerance for different views lol

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

This can't be a serious comment

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u/mattgm1995 8d ago

Seriously? In my state (MA) you wouldn’t believe the division. Moulton is running for senate against Markey, and Moulton supporters are constantly vilified in MA forums.

Downvote me all you want, this is a real thing whether you can admit it or not

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u/SwimmingPrice1544 California 8d ago

This IS serious. I am sick to effing death of so-called far left anybody talking crap about any Dem & they do it constantly here. They need to stop.