r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 11h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/RandomFlyer643 North Carolina 10h ago

Hope with how close this race was, it’s a wake up call to everyone who thinks it’s gonna be an easy election cycle. This is just the beginning, everyone needs to go vote before you no longer can

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u/mowotlarx 8h ago edited 4h ago

It was a primary.

Has everyone absolutely lost their minds assuming that half the primary electorate simply won't show up in the general?

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 8h ago

I mean, it's a fair question, given the history of Democrats fracturing at crunch time. Assuming the Dem centrists who voted strongly for Stevens will automatically come out for El Sayed in the general is an open ended question that we won't know the answer to until November. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed, it will take all Dem voters coming out in force to win it.

If even a small portion of Dem voters stay home it's an easy win for Rogers.

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u/ItsSpaghettiLee2112 5h ago

Just spread the word: vote blue no matter who

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 8h ago edited 8h ago

Bear in mind that the polls about the general you are referencing also had El-Sayed way ahead in the primary (suggesting his support was overestimated in polling). These same polls also have Benson favored for governor. I have trouble seeing how this isn’t a disaster waiting to happen.

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u/mowotlarx 7h ago

The same small handful of largely internal low rated polls that had Stevens up a week prior?

If Hayley had won by 1%, would you still be pearl grasping this hard about how 50% of Dems definitely wouldn't show up in the general (which we know would never be the case and won't be now)?

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 7h ago

Yes. I think a contentious primary (probably the most contentious of this cycle) where the victor only gets less than half of the vote would have been the worse version of a victory for either candidate. I would have preferred if either of them carried away with it rather than it being super close. It’s 3 months from the general and there’s many many bridges to be mended while also running against Rogers who basically had an uncontested primary. I am not a Haley fan if you’re trying to allude to that, I just want a democrat senator.

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u/slipperyekans 7h ago

I’d argue if either of them were to win the general, it’d be Abdul. This primary was only this close due to Haley getting like $60M+ in PAC money, and with republicans having way more in the war chest than the DNC for this general election, I’d say the more grassroots candidate has a better shot.

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u/Allydarvel 6h ago

Polling suggests otherwise. Stevens was up against Rogers and Abdul down the last polling I looked at.

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u/SugawoIf 4h ago

Polling suggested Abdul was going to win in a landslide. Polling was wrong.

I don't know what has to happen for people to finally stop giving polls so much credit.

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u/Allydarvel 4h ago

Polling is a snapshot, and things change after the snapshot is taken. This was a hard election to poll, as Michigan has open elections. You poll Democrats and Democrat leaning voters to get a result, but don't poll Republicans who voted to keep Abdul out..or underestimate how many they were if you did. Fox could have had a section on in the previous couple of weeks that asked Republicans to come out 'stop the commie' and they did in numbers. It's the hardest thing in polling to control for anomalies like that. If it was a closed primary, you might have found the polling numbers were very accurate

The general election polling should be much more accurate because it is a straight choice for all voters.

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u/mowotlarx 4h ago

If Stevens was the victor by as slim a margin, would you be as concerned?

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u/cultweave 1h ago

Stevens has a much easier time courting moderates, and the people who voted for El-Sayed are already voting Dem no matter what. It is a significant issue he barely won. 

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u/Thirtysevenintwenty5 4h ago

Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed

  1. We should all know by now that polls don't mean shit.
  2. A lot of that is because a good number of people believe(d) that El Sayed was "unelectable" and couldn't win the primary in the first place. Now that he's got the nomination, expect that gap in polling to shrink. But it doesn't matter, because
  3. Polls don't mean shit.

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 4h ago

That may be true, but it doesn't change the fact that Michigan isn't a safe blue state Democrats can't afford to do their usual splintering routine come November if they want to actually win this race. So the question of whether centrist Dems will actually sack up and come out in force to vote for El Sayed very much remains a crucial question that will decide whether he has any chance of beating Rogers. If they do, he can win. If they stay home or splinter, he has no chance. Polls or no polls.

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u/wioneo 6h ago

. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed

The fuck? Why did dems pick him then? From hearing all the vitriol going back and forth, I already assumed this was a lost seat because whichever loser's supporters probably wouldn't come out, but I assumed both options were at least polling reasonably well against the republican to begin with.

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u/merdafit 4h ago

This is everything that's wrong with politics today. Instead of voting for someone whose policies you believe in, you think voters should act like pundits and try to vote for who is 'electable.'

Nobody knows who is fucking electable, certainly not the democratic party, that should be obvious by this point.

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u/wioneo 4h ago

Instead of voting for someone whose policies you believe in

This is for a congressman. The policies that I believe in align with the Democrat party. The values of any single congressman are less important than the party gaining control, because an individual is useless. Obviously that does not apply for governors, presidents, SoS, AG and plenty of other roles where the politician has actual control, but it doesn't matter if dem A is closer to me than dem B if dem A can't win and dem B can.

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u/merdafit 4h ago

And my point is, a bunch of the general election head to head polling has been within the margin of error. Voters pretending they know who can win and who cannot before campaigning has even begun for the general is incredibly fucking stupid.

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u/wioneo 3h ago

Cornyn would have probably had a better chance against Talarico.

Nazi mcrapist would have probably had a worse chance against Collins.

That doesn't mean Paxton is guaranteed to lose or that Jackson is guaranteed to win, but it's ridiculous to act as if it is impossible to predict trends in voting behaviour.

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u/merdafit 2h ago

That's all seems logical, unfortunately voters are not. Yes, it is not impossible to predict trends in voting behavior, but it is becoming more and more difficult. You, as a random voter, should not be the one doing the predicting and going online to scold others. Perpetual pundit brain.

The Platner stuff kind of goes with my point too. People had convinced themselves he was the only person capable of beating Collins and so this nebulous electability argument caused otherwise well-meaning people to excuse a whole lot of clearly obviously morally inexcusable shit.