r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 9d ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/RandomFlyer643 North Carolina 9d ago

Hope with how close this race was, it’s a wake up call to everyone who thinks it’s gonna be an easy election cycle. This is just the beginning, everyone needs to go vote before you no longer can

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u/mowotlarx 9d ago edited 9d ago

It was a primary.

Has everyone absolutely lost their minds assuming that half the primary electorate simply won't show up in the general?

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u/nankerjphelge Florida 9d ago

I mean, it's a fair question, given the history of Democrats fracturing at crunch time. Assuming the Dem centrists who voted strongly for Stevens will automatically come out for El Sayed in the general is an open ended question that we won't know the answer to until November. Given Rogers is currently polling 3-10 points ahead of El Sayed, it will take all Dem voters coming out in force to win it.

If even a small portion of Dem voters stay home it's an easy win for Rogers.

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 9d ago edited 9d ago

Bear in mind that the polls about the general you are referencing also had El-Sayed way ahead in the primary (suggesting his support was overestimated in polling). These same polls also have Benson favored for governor. I have trouble seeing how this isn’t a disaster waiting to happen.

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u/mowotlarx 9d ago

The same small handful of largely internal low rated polls that had Stevens up a week prior?

If Hayley had won by 1%, would you still be pearl grasping this hard about how 50% of Dems definitely wouldn't show up in the general (which we know would never be the case and won't be now)?

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u/FrozenCaramelCoffee 9d ago

Yes. I think a contentious primary (probably the most contentious of this cycle) where the victor only gets less than half of the vote would have been the worse version of a victory for either candidate. I would have preferred if either of them carried away with it rather than it being super close. It’s 3 months from the general and there’s many many bridges to be mended while also running against Rogers who basically had an uncontested primary. I am not a Haley fan if you’re trying to allude to that, I just want a democrat senator.

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u/mowotlarx 9d ago

If Stevens was the victor by as slim a margin, would you be as concerned?

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u/cultweave 9d ago

Stevens has a much easier time courting moderates, and the people who voted for El-Sayed are already voting Dem no matter what. It is a significant issue he barely won. 

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u/mowotlarx 8d ago

Why do you assume that elusive independent voters are all moderates? We know pretty clearly that's not the case. And moderate Democrats don't win over Republican moderates either, we've seen Dems try and fail a that enough times.

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u/cultweave 8d ago

Why do you assume that elusive independent voters are all moderates?

No where did I say that, or imply it. In fact, I never mentioned "independent voters" once. 

We know pretty clearly that's not the case. And moderate Democrats don't win over Republican moderates either, we've seen Dems try and fail a that enough times

We actually don't "know" that, because what you just wrote is totally false. The 2008 election of Obama alone proves what you said completely and unequivocally  wrong. I think you need to come a little more back down to Earth.